Confirmed: The Political West Wants to Destroy Ukraine

Thinned lines open holes for territorial gains for Russia as the Political West buries its and Ukraine's heads in the dark soils of Novorossiya

Published: 2025-06-03

Updated 2025-06-03: References to articles from Moon of Alabama and Simplicius added.

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The evidence is in.

Analysis by M.K. Bhadrakumar (MKB) and an obvious prediction of Ukraine's non-response to the current Istanbul discussions, both mentioned in the most recent podcast, were correct.

MKB and Thinned Ukrainian Lines

Former senior Indian diplomat MKB noted that "buried in a [seemingly innocuous] lengthy speech" was the following statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin:

a decision has been made to create a buffer security zone along the Russian border

[Kremlin]

He concluded that:

Russia is creating a new war front for Group North comprising the Ukrainian oblasts of Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv!

And foresaw that:

The front-line will now almost double in length, which will of course hopelessly overstretch the Ukrainian forces and bring Russian heavy armour to the great flat Ukrainian plains on which the expressway runs from Sumy to Kiev without any natural obstacle.

The key terms were "double" and "overstretch".

Doubling the length of the contact lines thins the lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). This creates the opportunities for Russia to capture territory at reduced risk to its soldiers.

This is precisely what has happened. The cause and effect were even admitted in a Western publication, the German tabloid Bild:

The summer offensive? So far a complete success for the Russians. Russia's invasion army is on the rise in the Donetsk, Kharkiv and Sumy regions, conquering 18 Ukrainian towns within seven days – almost 200 square kilometers.

[Bild + auto-translation]

Russia's superiority in infantry is having an increasing impact on the battlefield.

[Bild quoting a research group]

Bild did not link the cause and effect. That would imply that Russia's military planners are competant.

Predictable and Predicted

Any honest military analysis could have foreseen this.

Ukrainian internal security chief Budanov admitted their lot only a few months ago, that their military would collapse in six months. The data that the AFU is drastically short of soldiers has been known for well over a year. This newsletter recently cited statistics from the (UK) Royal United Services Institute, a military think tank, confirming this.

Ukraine's lack, and continued reduction of soldiers, was predicted. Over two years ago Scott Ritter described the "military math" of the casualty and reinforcement ratioes which determined where this conflict was headed. That inevitable outcome has been made more extreme by Russia's longer induction training programs and better equipment supply.

Declaring "support" for Ukraine instead of pressing for a settlement gifts Ukrainian land to Russia at the heavy expensive of Ukrainian lives. This, frustratingly for some, is exactly what Russia has been saying would happen for over a year. Settle now or the reality on the ground, which must be incorporated into a peace, will worsen for Ukraine.

How many oblasts do you want to lose? And for how many lives do you want Ukraine to lose them?

Negotiations and Whole of State Strategy

The other note offered in the podcast was based on Swiss military intelligence Colonel Jacques Baud's analysis of Russia's war fighting methodology. It is a whole of state operation. Militarily this is a war of attrition utilizing the entire nation's economy and production capacity. We saw the diplomatic side of the “whole of nation” approach during that start of the "Diplomatic Dances in Istanbul".

Putin wrong footed the belligerent European (Britain/Starmer, France/Macron, Germany/Merz, Poland/Tusk and EU/von der Lyen) demand for a "30 day unconditional ceasefire". Unconditional was the problem, because such a ceasefire amounts to providing Ukraine time to rearm and prepare fortifications. Putin offered instead negotiations in Istanbul. He had the support of US President Donald Trump, who demanded that expired Ukrainian President, aka military Dictator Zelensky attend.

Aside from a 1,000 person bilateral prisoner exchange, the discussions amounted to the parties agreeing to provide documents stating their positions from which negotiations could proceed. Using Chess as an analogy, this was a Russian check on Ukraine, for Zelensky cannot admit to any settlement beyond "give us all territory back (including Crimea) and pay for reparations".

This amounts to no settlement. It publicly exposes the Ukrainian regime as immoral kleptocrats. Any other political position is a termination of Zelensky's rule and possibly life at that hands of Ukrainian ultra-nationalists (Nazis) and the oligarchs who are profiting from the war.

The second round of discussions in Istanbul showed that, as predicted, Ukraine's position is still "rewind time to 2022 and pay us money". That position is actually "maintain the war". That, given the above analysis, means "destroy Ukraine".

Yes, do this while Russia expands its military to the largest, most experienced army anywhere, and fills its collective memory with phalanxes of patriots who died heroically defending Russia from Nazis. This is Russia's understanding of the war.

Put most simply: Nazis come from central Europe. Russia fights them because they are Nazis (violent ethno-supremacists) and they refuse to negotiate.

Thinned Fronts

Military Summary's video from 2025-05-31 provides the first glimpses into Russia's approach to the fighting season.

Here are the borders of Ukraine's oblasts with capitals to serve as an index to frames from the video:

Fronts

The first frame is over Sumy. The capital is marked. Dima has drawn a yellow and a green region. Yellow represents the area to be immediately evacuated of civilians. This informs us where Ukraine expects Russia to advance. The green is over a very large forest which borders and defends the capital.

The two salients to the north of Kharkiv have been reactivated. Russia has completed capture of Vovchansk to the north of the river.

The northeast of Kharkiv is likely to become very active. Russia recently advanced in the northeastern corner, parallel to the border over the Oskol river. The two red markers between Vovchansk and the corner indicate Russian preparations for a potential advance.

Russia is advancing southwards on the city of Kupiansk which sits on both sides of the Oskol. Russia's position to the city's south and east can be advanced.

Russia's lack of progress through the forest to the northeast of Siversk is emblematic of the difficulty of fighting in forests. The trees deny drone and artillery warfare forcing the conflict to be at close quarters. This provides the defenders a strong advantage and explains Russia's lack of desire to fight there.

Its advances are to the east and southeast.

Only the outskirts of Chassiv Yar remain to the captured by the AFRF.

Russia's has captured over half of the "pocket" they created between two pincers to the south of the reservoir below Konstantinivka. Progress is now slow because Ukraine repositioned many brigades into the area to stabilize it.

This is as Russia desires. The AFU are being forced to dance to the AFRF's tune. That tune is creating the land grab opportunities along the new border or "buffer" fronts.

To the west of the Konstantinivka "pocket" the Russia converted its "pincer" into a bridgehead. Over the last month the AFRF has pushed northwest. Here too the AFU has been forced to reposition brigades to stop this advance which threatens to envelope Pokrovsk, to the sou'west.

In southern Donetsk, the AFRF's advance has quickened with the summer offensive. Kurakove and its reservoir are long behind them. The east-west defensive line is almost half captured. South of it are open fields before one meets the AFRF.

The Covert War

Covertly coordinated attacks within Russia occurred the day before the second round of discussions in Istanbul. Two bridges were destroyed, one on top of, the other beneath, passenger and cargo trains, respectively. The Ukrainian "intelligence" organisation, in collaboration with their British (MI6) and US (CIA) counterparts are almost certainly the organisers of these acts of sabotage.

The other covert Ukraine+CI6 operation used drones released from concealment aboard trucks. These drone attacks targeted Russian military aviation in 5 far-flung regions of Russia. Several TU-95 bombers were damaged.

These military attacks are a welcome change from the civilian attacks which Ukraine's covert operatives and Western covert operations backers have been running for over decade. Recently they included the Crocus Hall massacre, the assassination of Russian General Kirillov and attacks on religious houses in Dagestan. Back in the Ukraine civil war, and early in its international extension were attacks on hospitals, child care facilities, markets and water purification facilities.

These recent covert attacks follow the pattern expected after the CIA and MI6 took charge of Western support for NATO's war in Ukraine. This was not so covertly announced last September.

These covert attacks, military or civilian, are all Ukraine can do. Russia will respond as it sees fit.

The bombers and bridges will be rebuilt. The few who died will be venerated in Russia as heroes.

The Overt War

The Russian Federation understands that US President Trump has limited room for maneuver due to the interests of its "deep state". But, there are opportunities. Russia is using them as best it can to seek a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

Meanwhile, Russia has won the military war. The AFRF are in no rush, whatsoever. Its goals for this season will be modest, but solid territorial advances at minimal casualties while continuing to degrade Ukraine's forces and most importantly, production capacity. This year's fighting will make next year's easier, just as last year's did — pure attrition.

Russia's consistent political position is that the 4 new oblasts are theirs — get out, Ukraine. The AFRF hopes to not fight in the urban agglomerations in northwest Donetsk, but will pressure them as it advances. Any "surprises" are likely to be in Sumy, Kharkiv and Chenihiv. There is a potential crossing of the lower Dniper in Kherson, but this would be costly. Its threat, to force the AFU to keep a presence there, is its purpose. A certainty is Russia advancing west into Dnipropetrovsk as a component of its northward push into Zaporozhye.

It seems that the most important political objective, for Russia to achieve a settlement, is an election in Ukraine. This would almost certainly remove Zelensky and count towards "de-nazification" if Zelensky's replacement has a different set of Ukrainian sponsors.

This, the discovery and declaration of new political sponsors in Ukraine, is the real political battle.

Update

The Ukraine + CI6 attack on the TU-95s is an attack on the nuclear arms limitations treaties (SALT & New Start). See Crooke on Judging Freedom for a discussion of this.

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