Escalation to NATO vs CSTO
With a reckless nuclear provocation as an entree
Published: 2024-06-02
Dima’s Geostrategic Vision
This newsletter has often advised people to watch Dima's videos at Military Summary to understand the details of what is occurring on the front lines of the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, old and new. In his recent video (below) Belarussian Dima spends almost the entire 30+ minute video explaining what should have been obvious to your reporter. I got schooled.
The Russian Federation President and Minister of Defense have recently visited Belarus and Uzbekistan. Responses to the current serious elevation of attacks by NATO in 'old' Russia have been issued by Russia's President and veteran Foreign Minister Lavrov.
Two extremely serious events have occurred.
Blinding a Nuclear Super-Power
On Judging Freedom, Professor Jeffrey Sachs informed the audience that after the NATO facilitated drone attacks on two of Russia's nuclear early warning systems (radars) he was contacted by a US expert in the area. That expert may have been Professort Theodore Postol (MIT). [His interview with Scott Horton in included in Sources. Also included is Col. Davis in discussion with Horton about just how disasterous things are for Ukraine currently.]
The adviser expressed how outrageously reckless the NATO/Ukraine attacks were. Removing the warning systems of a nuclear power blinds them, and makes them much more likely to use their nuclear arsenal. It is not only a provocation but also dramatically increases the risk of a nuclear war. To emphasize the danger he was being alerted to, Sachs wrote an article on the history of nuclear risk using the Doomsday Clock maintained by The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
This cavalier stupidity naturally generated discussion in the independent media. That legacy media were largely mum on it was yet another confirmation of their dereliction of duty. Stephen Bryen's article contains much of the technical detail. The insanity only received brief mention in Dima's video. His focus was the purpose of the visits by Russia's political leadership.
The conclusion he drew was obvious if one thought about the other very significant event which has just occurred.
As explained in the most recent podcast, Ukraine had one of its "hands tied behind its back" during the opening of the new front by Russia to the north of Kharkiv. That hand is that NATO member states had not officially allowed attacks by their forces in Ukraine on 'old' Russia. 'Old' Russia is the territory encompassed by the Russian Federation as of 1991, or before the SMO. 'New' Russia now incorporates Crimea and the 4 oblasts which voted to join Russia just 6 months into the SMO. As an aside, Russia held these elections in the active areas of the war while Zelensky refused to hold a presidential election in the parts of Ukraine which were not part of active fronts. This informs one about political opinion in Ukraine and the unpopularity of the national draft rather than the challenge of holding an election during a war.
Until the Kharkiv front was opened, the war had been fought in 'New' Russia, or Novorossiya, or eastern Ukraine, however one wishes to label the 4 regions and Crimea. The Kharkiv front changed that. Dima reasoned that a Ukrainian soldier will attack Russian forces, irrespective of where they are, if that soldier has the weaponry to do so. From this he concluded that all of the long range powerful weapons in the north were under the control of NATO officers, because no attacks were made into 'old' Russia as the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) were advancing into Ukraine in the Kharkiv oblast.
During the last week, there has been a growth in the band of NATO member states which have politically approved that weapons they have 'given to Ukraine' (which are targeted and under control of their officers) may attack 'old' Russia. US President Joseph Biden added the United States of America to this band of NATO nations. Germany, having waited for the US signal, followed immediately thereafter. With this political approval, NATO officers have attacked the AFRF (Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) in 'old' Russia, officially starting World War III.
Vladimir Putin and other officials have just visited Belarus and Uzbekistan. Discussions with Kazakhstan's President Tokayev have been held. Numerous items in line with the BRICS+/SCO agenda were addressed. Belarus is about to be inducted as full member of the SCO. Russian and Uzbekistan were furthering their energy trade and continuing to move all payments into national currencies. Afghanistan is also being brought back into the fold.
There is, Dima suggests, another item which would most surely have been addressed and is not mentioned. What do the Russian Federation, Belarus, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have in common?
Triggering the CSTO
They are all members of the Russian Federation's Security organisation, the CSTO. The presidential interchange may have been as simple as "Please expect our Defence Minster to call yours". The recent politically approved attacks by NATO on 'old' Russia triggers the CSTO's version of NATO's "Article 5", their common defense.
Many will have forgotten that western intelligence agencies ran an attempted coup against Kazakh President Tokayev a month before Russia's Special Military Operation began (see Sources for past coverage). The Kazakh government was protected by the CSTO, and not least by Russia delivering special forces units of over 2000 men to the capital to protect government buildings from being seized by the coup actors. Tokayev understands the value of the CSTO, personnally.
The recent attacks inside 'old' Russia means that NATO is now fighting the CSTO. The Russian Federation is informing its Treaty partners of the reality of the situation and their obligations under the treaty. How else can one describe a war between NATO and the CSTO other than a world war? Travelling at 45° N one can loop the globe and almost all nations crossed are involved.
There are trainers and there are Trainers
Scott Ritter has been clear communicating his knowledge that the understanding which the AFRF have developed on the evolution of land warfare, as learned on the lands of Novorossiya, has been cycled back into Russia's military academies. Their officer class are already educated in this new warfare.
France's Macron is making noises about sending "Trainers" to Ukraine. The purpose of this is almost certainly not training, but to relieve rear Ukrainian units to allow the almost empty bucket of Ukrainian reserves to be sent to the fronts and killed.
That which is even more likely is that Russia will be sending senior officers to their CSTO partner militaries to educate them in the nature of this new land warfare so that when their forces are called upon they can integrate into Russia's.
I offer this prediction because it fits with the serious manner in which Russia conducts itself. I suggest that the Russian training of partner militaries has already begun.
This is the world which the insanity of the West is creating.
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Sources
US Presidents Who Gamble With Nuclear Armageddon, Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, Consortium News, 2024-05-30
The Heat ｜ CSTO Enters The Game ｜ Afghan Recruiting Traffic. Military Summary And Analysis 2024.5.31, Dima, Military Summary, 2024-05-31
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs： How Dangerous To Threaten Nukes., Napolitano interviews Prof. Sashc, Judging Freedom, 2024-05-27
Ukraine's Attack on Russia's Strategic Radar a Significant Escalation, Stephen Bryen, Weapons and Strategy, 2024-05-28
5/30/24 Ted Postol on How the US is Helping Ukraine Strike Russia’s Early Warning System, Horton interviews Postol, The Scott Horton Show, 2024-05-30
Russia, SCO, BRICS: The Normalization of Afghanistan, Pepe Escobar, The Unz Review, 2024-06-01
5/30/24 Daniel Davis: Things are Getting Worse in Ukraine, Horton interviews Col. Davis, 2024-05-30
Russia-Uzbekistan talks (from Tashkent), Kremlin, 2024-05-27
Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council, Kremlin, 2024-05-31
Press statement following Russia-Uzbekistan talks, Kremlin, 2024-05-27
Council of Regions of Russia and Uzbekistan, Kremlin, 2024-05-27
Telephone conversation with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, Kremlin, 2024-05-31
"Vladimir Putin once again thanked Alexander Lukashenko for the warm reception and hospitality extended to him during his visit to Minsk on May 24. ..."
Telephone conversation with President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kremlin, 2024-05-31
Collective Security Treaty Organisation, Itself / Wikipedia
Kazakhstan: The Price of Insurgency, YesXorNo, 2022-01-09
Kazakhstan and the CSTO: Putin Calmly Reads the Riot Act, YesXorNo, 2022-01-11
Kazakh Aftermath: Gazing into the Crystal Ball, YesXorNo, 2022-01-13
🎧 NATO v Russia in Ukraine: Constant Elevating Provocation, YesXorNo, 2024-06-01
The US Empire Isn't A Government That Runs Nonstop Wars, It's A Nonstop War That Runs A Government, Caitlin Johnston, Caitlin's Newsletter, 2024-06-01
The Heat ｜ Crazy Damage To Energy Infrastructure ｜ Breakthrough To Sokil. Military Summary 2024.06.1, Dima, Military Summary, 2024-06-01
Things just keep getting worse for NATO in Ukraine.
US HIMARS rockets fitted with cluster munitions were fired from Ukraine at Belgorod, a double war crime (banned anti-personnel weapons used on civilians). This is not news.
Culture
Seconds, U2 (from their 1983 album, War), uploaded 2018-07-24
Copyleft: CC0
These people are insane and need to be voted out. Starting with Biden.
And nobody I talk to cares.......!
The US, Canada and the Anglosphere are sleepwalking into a nightmare.