Escobar, Russia & Israel: Averting a Nuclear EMP Attack on Iran

Serious claims require serious evidence

Apr 21, 2024

Published: 2024-04-22

Updates: Added McGovern interview on Dialogue Works to sources.

Updated 2024-04-23: Added McGovern on Judging Freedom. Ray maintained his dismissal, still based on Pepe’s “one” source. Added Larry Johnson’s remarks and comments upon them.

Questions raised in this article are extended in a follow up.

Introduction

Pepe Escobar, a veteran journalist of high repute who has specialized in central Asia for over two decades, has issued posts on Telegram and then Twitter/X announcing an upcoming article.

In the second, to clarify his sources, he stated that he has "TWO separate, definitive confirmations from TWO ultra high level intel sources from TWO separate Asian nations. Working to get a third - at least a partial acknowledgment."

In his first post he stated that his initial source is "In Asia. NOT Russia-China." This is followed by "Confirmed and re-confirmed."

In his second post on Twitter/X, issued about 10 hours before this publication, he stated that he expects to publish "tomorrow".

The core of his expected, upcoming article, described in the posts, is that these two ulta-high level officials from Asian nations believe that Israel's latest attack on Iran was meant to be a nuclear weapon based Electro-Magnetic Pulse delivered by an F-35 jet which was twarted by the Russian Air Force, intercepting and presumably destroying it.

Posts

First post (Telegram):

EXCLUSIVE
THE REAL STORY OF THE ISRAELI COUNTER RESPONSE
From a very high level intel source.
In Asia.
NOT Russia-China.
Although the strategic partnership, of course, exchanges at the highest level 24-7.
Confirmed and re-confirmed.
It will be great to know what Sy Hersh hears from his Beltway sources.
Here we go.
Israel initially chose to respond with extreme force.
An F-35 loaded with a nuclear bomb was sent east over Jordan.
The mission: cause a high-altitude detonation over Iran that would provoke a surge in the high-capacity power lines, crippling Iran's electric grid, as well as disabling all electronic devices.
An EMP attack.
However...
... As the Israeli F-35 was leaving Jordanian airspace it was shot down by the Russian Air Force.
Hence the publicised version of the Israeli counter response was such a travesty.
In the end all sides decided not to publicise the real news - to de-escalate what could well turn into WWIII.

Second post (Twitter/X):

Pepe Escobar
@RealPepeEscobar
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE
I now have TWO separate, definitive confirmations from TWO ultra high level intel sources from TWO separate Asian nations. Working to get a third - at least a partial acknowledgment.
I moved to Asia 30 years ago. Built a unparalleled network. Trust my top sources a billion per cent.
The original source that led to my first post reconfirmed he stands by it. His words:
"I'm honestly surprised that people are surprised. Do they really think if something like this happened it's gonna be presented to them in front of their TVs? It's like history has taught them nothing."
Working on a first column - probably out tomorrow.
Many thanks to all who offered informed, sharp comment and criticism. This should be a collective effort to get to what might have happened: the shape of it, not necessarily the details as they were leaked.
9:56 PM · Apr 21, 2024 376.4K Views [from sceenshot when taken]

Response

Discussion of Escobar’s claim that two, or possibly three, sources believe this scenario will likely be very extensive ("light up the internet").

Larry Johnson offered early comment. He contends that the Russian plane would have had to cross into airspace controlled by the US. He notes the deconfliction center established between the US and Russia while they were both involved in the Syrian Dirty War, which is still operational. Johnson expresses some doubt that the Russian plane could have used the relevant airspace without US consent. This makes absolute sense. Thus, if this did happen, there likely was consent. Given that the US does not want a regional war, if Russia contacted the deconfliction center and communicated the threat, consent may well have been granted.

Johnson's community raised an important consequence. An unexploded nuclear weapon is likely lying on the ground somewhere. Where is the evidence for the hunt for it? This would be the job of special forces. This task, surely, would have been involved in mission planning, even if it was rushed. One does not leave collecting a nuclear device to local police, or militias. This scenario is the raison d'etre for special forces. Should the scenario be valid, and these specialists tasked with recovery, they would have had total support. Nothing would be allowed to get in their way to protect the device and remove it to a secure facility.

Ray McGovern has also provided his educated comments. [see sources for his interview with Prof. Alkhorshid] McGovern remains skeptical until further evidence is produced. He stressed Escobar’s “one source”. Escobar’s announcment of two sources either came after this interview with McGovern or he was not aware of it then. McGovern stated that one of his military sources does not agree with Escobar’s source(s).

On McGovern’s later interview on Judging Freedom he catagorically rejected the event Escobar’s sources described as fantastic, though he continued to refer to only one source. He described Israeli PM Netanyu as “between a rock and a hard place”. He fears that Israeli leadership will do something “really, really stupid”.

Larry Johnson’s later comments

On Judging Freedom (see sources), Johnson begins by erroneously stating that Escobar has one source. He later focuses on the alleged Israeli plane being "shot down by the Russians as the plane exited Jordan". His approach was to examine the details, which is entirely sensible. Escobar, however, was calling for a collaborative effort to understand "the shape of it, not necessarily the details as they were leaked".

As stated in the "extended" podcast, there are known means to recover the allegedly downed nuclear weapon. If an F-35 was used, the US would want its components recovered too, as it is a latest-gen plane. Evidence of this is another manner in which to assert the event. Evidence for recovery of either remains publicly unknown.

Larry stated that he consulted with a current or former intelligence colleague. "He just laughed", relayed Johnson. "There would be some indication that, that was 'spinning up' to go down". One presumes Johnson means that his source believed that they would have seen evidence of the preparation for the launching of the mission. Frankly, this seems arrogant. We are speaking of Israel using a stealth F-35 on a mission which would only be successful only if it was kept clandestine until complete. One could observe that Johnson quoting one US intelligence colleague provides no more veracity than Escobar quoting one source. This does not help us either.

Johnson did, at the end of the discussion on the topic, mention that Escobar has two sources. He then declared them "bad". "That could be it." This concluded his evaluation of Escobar's sources' statements.

A point which Larry raised which is of potentially greater interest can be recast as a question: how did Escobar's sources know there was a nuclear device on the plane? Again, this is not impossible. One can imagine an Israeli officer seeing the likely consequences of this alleged action and wishing to avert the destruction of Israel. How did this hypothetical Israeli whistleblower alert end up being communicated to Escobar's sources? Naturally, things become very murky, very quickly.

Credibility

Escobar is alleging that his sources believe the account which he states he will soon publish. It is a very serious allegation and requires serious evidence. The level of Escobar's claimed sources meet this bar. Given Israel's behaviour over the decades it is not impossible that it could have chosen an action of this severity.

Recall the STUXNET attack which was a collaboration between Israel and the US. It was the first major "cyber" attack, and caused a global response in the IT community, forcing all major manufacturers to evaluate the security of their SCADA controllers, and much more. It also let the cat out of the bag for USB device insecurity. The most astounding part of the attack was the impersonation via forged cryptography of Microsoft software update servers. STUXNET melted the global IT security community to slow Iran's civilian nuclear enrichment program by a year or two.

Israel's current program of genocide indicates that its leadership are not acting rationally, but emotionally. This view is shared by considered, informed commentator Prof. Marandi and countenanced by his interlocutors Prof. Deisen and Mr. Mercouris, as voiced during their recent discussion on The Duran (see sources).

Mechanics

An element not yet considered is a mechanism for this alleged Russian interception. That could easily have been from their air force base in northern Syria at Khmeimim. One must presume that Russia possesses air to air hypersonic missiles and that once these lock onto whatever is targeted, it is history. Questions of how an Israeli F-35 was detected and then intercepted and targeted arise. F-35s are built, supposedly, for stealth. Should the alleged scenario be real, many interesting questions await military analysts.

Information Control

Given the potential ramifications of the suggested intervention, one can expect that social media institutions will suppress discussion until that becomes onrous or impossible. Similiarly, one can expect that reports issued by the Official Imperial Echo Chamber will divert or otherwise misinform. This event, if real, is no more outrageous than many other parts of known, but less studied, history. Take the Karen Silkwood case [see sources], for example. In this, US attorney Daniel Sheehan, discovered a mechanism used to transfer weapons grade nuclear material out of the US, supposedly to Israel.

Likelihood?

Welcome to the speculation zone.

My hunch? Yes, this likely happened. The US allowed Russia, or perhaps even asked Russia, to solve this problem for it. It is also possible that this did not reach the political level in the US. During the Cold War, nuclear war was prevented several times by the actions of mid-level military officers. From their humanity and sense, we have all benefited. This event may be yet another case.

One could predict the likely outcome of the evaluation of this as yet unpublished report. Details will be shown as implausible or unsupported. The event will disappear. Significant details may be revealed in a book, decades later. This is the historical trend of nuclear weapons emergencies.

An extended consideration is available.

🎧 Averting a Nuclear EMP Attack on Iran -- Extended, YesXorNo, 2024-04-22

Sources

EXCLUSIVE THE REAL STORY OF THE ISRAELI COUNTER RESPONSE, Pepe Escobar, Telegram, 2024-04-20 21:54 [presuming AEST]

VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE, Pepe Escobar, Twitter/X, 2024-04-21 21:56 [presuming AEST]

Pepe Escobar Ignites Social Media — Update, Larry Johnson, A Son of the New American Revolution, 2024-04-20

Khmeimim Air Base, Wikipedia

📽️ Escobar, Russia & Israel: Account verification, YesXorNo, 2024-04-22

A short video examining Escobar’s Telegram channel to look for evidence of it being hacked. Extremely unlikely.

Israeli Zionists Probe(?) Iran, Again, YesXorNo, 2024-04-19

Larry Johnson: Did Israel Plan to Nuke Iran?, Johnson with Napolitano, Judging Freedom, 2024-04-22

Was Israel Going to Nuke Iran as Pepe Escobar's Source Claims？｜ Ray McGovern, Prof. Nima Alkhorshid interviews McGovern, Dialogue Works, 2024-04-21

Ray McGovern: Will IDF Ask US For Permission Or Forgiveness?, Napolitano interviews McGovern, Judging Freedom, 2024-04-21

Iran and Israel at war？ - Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen, Prof. Marandi in discussion with Mercouris and Prof. Diesen, The Duran, 2024-04-