Forget the Trees, See the Forest: Tectonic Shifts in Geopolitics
Tectonic Shifts in Geopolitics
[Image: Tectonic plate boundaries.]
Publication date: 2022-10-13
Introduction
This essay revisits a theme of this newsletter, the integration of Eurasia and Africa, the super-continent, and how this threatens the USA's unipolar moment achieved after the dissolution of the USSR.
Recent events will serve as an escape from this heavier topic, and will be placed amongst this greater theme.
We are witnessing the evolution of the next great power shift. The dissolution of the USSR was the most recent, with the end of WWII and its Bretton Woods/UN/IMF/World Bank setup as the preceding event.
[Image: Bretton Woods Conference, 1944, from Brittanica.]
A Recap
The Ukraine war, as historians may name it, began in 2014 as a civil war between the unelected government midwifed into existence by a USA facilitated coup using Stepan Bandera worshiping Nazi's as the strong arm, with a few snipers to kick things off. The CIA has had its fingers in Ukraine and amongst Nazi worshiping groups there since 1954.
In 2014, Russian speaking people in Eastern Ukraine feared what these ultra-nationalist Nazi's would meet upon them. The accession of Crimea and the burning alive of protesters in Odessa's Trade Unions building inspired them and reinforced their concerns. The Kiev government created the civil war and launched both regular and newly integrated Nazi paramilitary organizations against the resisting eastern provinces.
The most interesting part of all of this is how quickly the civil war was created. Ukraine has been a multi-ethic nation throughout most of the last century. As a Soviet Republic, freedom of movement and labour between Ukraine, its provinces and "Mother Russia" eased these ethnic tensions.
Following the dissolution of the USSR, Ukraine was left to fend for itself. Zbigniew Brzezinski identified Ukraine as the next opportunity, following the Afghan War, to weaken Russia. It was a powder keg waiting for a match.
Recent Events
On October 8th 2022 a bomb in a truck traveling from the Kerch side of the Kerch to Crimea bridge was exploded, igniting multiple sections of a fuel train and severing two sections of one of the two road platforms. Within days Ukraine's postal service had issued the graphic for a new stamp picturing two explosions on this bridge.
It was displayed at bus stops and other locations in central Ukraine. Citizens were inspired to take "selfies" standing before the proposed stamp. Ukrainian officials expressed their joy at three people being killed and damage to the bridge. Plans by UK intelligence for such an operation emerged. Western media floated the idea that Russia attacked its own bridge.
Brian Berletic "The New Atlas" reviewed the BBC's response to the attack on the bridge and Russia's response using many missiles to damage Ukraine power and rail transport infrastructure. The BBC's morally inconsistent response displays simple propaganda. Nobody who lives outside of this propaganda bubble was at all surprised. Many of us don't read articles by western media on this conflict, except to see which next stupid idea they propose.
The greater battle is not of "civilizations" but continents. Propaganda is a powerful weapon against domestic populations.
Larry Johnson reviewed the USA's most recent "Strategic Security" thingy and shows that it is just as full of the same narrative echoing stupidity. They have drunk their own cool-aid.
Propaganda extends into the "Think Tanks" just beyond the arm of but advising their government.
Dave DeCamp, the news editor at Antiwar, reports of a NATO plan to spend the next decade transitioning Ukraine's military. The mission is to get them to stop using Russian designed systems and instead use NATO (read USA) military systems. If Ukraine is not already a defacto-NATO state, this would solidify it. USA weapons manufacturers will make a killing (sorry for that nasty pun).
There is a parallel reason for this. All of the stocks of old Soviet weaponry which were possessed by the west have already been sent to Ukraine and destroyed. There is no other option than to “refit” the UAF (Ukraine Armed Forces) with western produced armaments.
Central economic interests must be guarded.
Alex Christoforou reports that the new trend in the west is to provide air defense systems to Ukraine. The list of nations wishing to "donate" these systems includes USA, France, UK, The Netherlands and Germany. Alex reports that Ukraine will get the new "IRIS-T" system before Germany's own army. More money for the military contractors and undermining your own defense. Really?
Air defense systems are complicated, else you shoot down commercial aircraft, your own aircraft, or your own bloody missiles. How can Ukraine integrate 5 or more new different systems? They cant. Actually, no, they should not.
This is optics.
Political grandstanding is just another part of the whole strategy.
[Image: parliamentary elected EU President Van der Leyen reads in Ukrainian coloured attire.]
Wrangling at the UN
Some USA bootlicker, or perhaps the USA itself, requested an Emergency session of the UN General Assembly to force nations to vote on the legitimacy of the recent referenda in the "liberated" former provinces of Ukraine: Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and the unspellable Zaporizhzhia. Western media allegations of "voting at gun point" have been disproved by many international observers. Obviously, none of the “western media” people were there to observe anything.
This is just another part of hybrid war, the current USA doctrine. War on all fronts: kinetic, intelligence, media, partner pressure and international bodies.
The results were a little surprising: 143 for, 35 abstentions, and 5 against. The abstentions amount to governments representing the majority of the global population, including China and India. "We're not going there".
[Image: UN results for the vote declaring that UN historically partial support for self-determination is illegitimate for these 4 regions. Kosovo is an entirely different proposition because there was no referendum. Thus, it is ?more? legitimate.]
The 5 against are interesting. Obviously, Russia leads with Belarus beside her. North Korea, is unsurprising. Similarly, Syria sided with the nation (along with Iran) which had helped her in the not-yet-finished proxy war on her territory. The interesting fifth nation was Nicaragua. Perhaps that is not so "interesting"; central America has been a constant hotbed of resistance to and compliance with USA domination ever since the “Monroe Doctrine”. The visibility of resistance and imposition has grown since WWII following the 1954 USA coup in Guatemala, and all of the USA funded "hot wars" in the 1980's.
Mexico’s vote for the resolution is perhaps even more interesting.
Its About the Economy, Stupid
Philanderer William Clinton broke USA promises to "not expand NATO one inch east" of Eastern Germany. He did quip the sub-title above during a USA election. This essay speaks of the economy at a wider scale, geoeconomics.
A buildup of Ukrainian forces on the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk self-declared independent regions in February 2022 was followed by a dramatic increase in shelling. Any military commander can see this as simple sequence of events which will likely lead to a major assault. It was this escalation which lead the Russian Federation to recognize the independence of the regions, establish diplomatic relations, and provide military support. Two bills in parliament were considered, with differening mechanisms to establish the recognition. Both were overwhelmingly supported.
It is the economic responses of "the west", by which I mean USA, NATO and the EU, in that order, which are of our interest.
An initial economic salvo was the impounding of between 120 and 300 Billion USD of Russian foreign reserves held in European and USA banks. Soon to follow were sanctions against Russian nationals. As soon as the disunity of Europe could be corralled into a semblance of unity, the energy sanctions against Russian natural gas and oil were applied. Package after sanctions package would follow targeting other natural resources for trade by Russia.
The declared purpose was to de-fund Russia’s "war chest". That mission has failed. Were there other objectives?
Trade Blocks
Since the "Ukraine War" shifted from a civil war into an "invasion" the west have applied the most extensive sanctions programme against any single government since at least WWII.
The claimed intent is to de-fund the Russian Federation's "warchest". This is believable but incomplete.
The biggest threat is not Russia, but China, as the USA has recently admitted. Thus, the attack on Russia is an attempt to remove the "weaker" of the two partners. Ukraine is a sideshow.
The people who occupy this "Grand Chessboard" space do not care about dead mothers or orphaned children. These emotional responses are for the irrelevant people. We control the media, we'll trigger their emotional responses when it suits our agenda.
We now get onto a "sticky wicket". The repeated sanctions against the Russian Federation have not just failed, they have left Europe in deep trouble and are also having an effect on the USA itself. The media term is "boomerang". The question is why continue to do something that has moved beyond "not working" into the territory of "its hurting us"? There are two obvious explanations: incompetence or undeclared purposes. The simplest explanation is a combination of the two.
The economic weakening of Russia has been partially successful but the rebound effect has begun for the USA and has been disasterous for Europe. An undeclared purpose is the de-industrialization of Germany. The recent attacks on the Nord Stream pipes further this objective. Repeated statements from USA officials are that they wish for this war to go on for a long time. The USA and UK’s blocking of negotiations to resolve the conflict reinforce this conclusion. The USA wants a long war. This will fuel her Military Industrial Complex and supposedly weaken Russia. I expect that the first will be achieved, but see little reason to believe the second. If one could speak with Napoleon or Hitler they may express regret at having pursued a war against Russia. Russia is well equipped with natural resources and has essential materials including energy to trade for materials she lacks to maintain her military capability. Her population adulate their heroes from the Great Patriotic War, as Russia’s part in WWII is known to them.
Russia defends her major industries ensuring that they are either owned by the government or by nationally registered corporations. She has learned from the plunder of the 1990's. Russia remains an essential exporter of a raft of key products including energy, food and a large collection of materials which are essential for advanced industry: Neon, Palladium, Aluminium and many more.
Alex Chistoforou reports that the USA government is considering its next sanctions package against Russia, this time targeting Russia's aluminium producer, RusAl. The USA is being warned by sector specialists, as so many times before, "do not do this". It is likely to go ahead. It is just the next wedge to separate nations into trading blocks.
The process of "Us or Them" continues. The difference from the last "Cold War" is that the "Non-Aligned Movement" is far more organized. China and Russia, via their SCO and BRICS organisations are providing an integrated opportunity to escape USA hegemony. Thus, the division continues, but nations are feeling more freedom to move. They are not so cornered.
What is happening is a re-configuration of world trade.
Lashing Out
In "Status Anxiety and the War in Ukraine" Paul Robinson provides a window into the psychological status of the USA power players as they see their global influence waning. Alfred McCoy in "The Geopolitics of the Ukraine War" provides us with an history and analysis of the nature of USA hegemonic decline. Chris Hedges has been writing about this for years, indeed, he's written an entire book on the topic.
In a recent article, Patrick Lawrence issues a mea culpa on believing that the puppets in charge will not use nuclear weapons. The recent elevation of comparisons of the all too hot "Cuban Missile Crisis" are valid. The USA ran a totally illegal naval blockade around Cuba. Those who have studied history know that Russian submariner Arkhipov saved all of us.
A recent "public service announcement" in New York, New York, advised people in the event of a nuclear attack to take three actions. The USA knows a helluva lot more now about nuclear war now than in the 1950's, but their public advice has not improved beyond crawling under a school desk.
The current advice is:
Go inside
Go to the center of the building
Wait for "authorities" before coming out
My version is to echo understanding developed in the 1980s:
Bend over
Put your head between your legs
Kiss your arse goodbye
Assuming we still have arses in the future, these current events are the next tectonic shift in international power relations.
Those who deny this are disinterested, ill-informed or lying to you.
Sources
Ukraine Is a Pawn on the Grand Chessboard, Rick Sterling, Antiwar, 2022-04-25
Russia Responds: Missile Strikes Across Ukraine & What May Follow Next, Brian Berletic, The New Atlas, 2022-10-11
Can The Flood of Lies About Ukraine and Russia Be Staunched?, Larry Johnson, Sonar 21, 2022-10-12
NATO Has 10-Year Plan to Rebuild Ukraine’s Military, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2022-10-13
UN vote fails. India, China, South Africa abstain. NATO 10 yr Ukraine plan. Odessa cancels Musk. U⧸1, Alex Chrisoforou, his Rumble channel, 2022-10-13
With 143 Votes in Favour, 5 Against, General Assembly Adopts Resolution Condemning Russian Federation’s Annexation of Four Eastern Ukraine Regions, Meetings Coverage and Press Releases, United Nations, 2022-10-12
U.N. publicly rejects Russia's call for secret vote on Ukraine, Michelle Nichols, Reuters, 2022-10-11
The Geopolitics of the Ukraine War, (Professor) Alfred McCoy, Tom Dispatch, 2022-03-10
The Thin Red Line: NATO Can’t Afford to Lose Kabul and Kiev, Pepe Escobar, Unz Review, 2022-10-12
Status anxiety and the war in Ukraine, (Prof) Paul Robison, Canadian Dimension, 2022-07-21
Biden’s National Security Strategy Names China as the ‘Most Consequential Geopolitical Challenge’, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2022-10-12
Culture
“Heart Attack and Vine” (Tom Waits from the album of the same name released in 1980), sagpoq, youtube, uploaded 2008-02-02
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