From Geopolitics to Community: The Reconciliation and Healing of Ukraine
The Reconciliation and Healing of Ukraine
Publication date: 2022-02-10
The geopolitical objective of Russia today is clearly not Ukraine but to clarify the rules of co-habitation with NATO in the EU.
French President Emmanuel Macron, February 2022
This newsletter's most recent article on the situation in Ukraine and its relations to Russia's desire for security guarantees ended with a hopeful outlook. Events continue to support this view.
The civil conflict which has been and continues to be externally fueled can be resolved peacefully. The resolution process is set out in the Minsk Accords, the process for which has been unanimously approved by the UN Security Council. Despite continuous delay from Ukraine in implementing political aspects of this potential resolution, due to efforts made by France in concert with Germany and Russia, some progress has been made.
How do regular Ukrainians feel about all of the external meddling in their country and its destabilization? What methods can empower them to unify their nation and heal their divides?
Recent Events
New German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has completed his obligatory visit to Washington. Following discussions, a laughable press conference was held with scripted questions. The usual platitudes of eternal friendship, enduring ally and reliable partner were wheeled out. The Nord Stream II pipeline was raised at least 4 times. Biden got to declare that it would be terminated if Russia invaded Ukraine, and when asked how he says "Trust me, it just will", which is to say, Germany has no sovereignty. Chancellor Scholz was repeatedly asked about the pipeline as well and resolutely refused to be so naive as to succumb to the political trap of even mentioning it. The level of targeted focus on Nord Stream II was less than subtle, and may indicate a deeper USA focus. The whole thing was an abject case of the new Chancellor being subjected to subjugation. Applying Newton’s third law of politics, this may play out nicely for USA domestic audiences but does entail an equal and opposite reaction across the Atlantic in Deutschland. The new CDU leader has already provided implicit political support for avoiding financial conflict with Russia, so Scholz’s coalition do not stand alone.
Next, we have French President Macron in 6 hours of talks with Russian Federation President Putin. This is significant in itself. Unsurprisingly, establishment media commentary has failed to see the positive developments which have been carefully constructed during the talks and outlined at the press conference thereafter.
Take this statement by Macron at the press conference during his introductory remarks, following the extensive meeting:
I am going to Kiev tomorrow to meet with President Zelensky. Of course, we are doing this jointly with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, with whom we coordinated our positions several days ago. I will see him tomorrow afternoon in Berlin. We continue working within the framework of the Normandy format to ensure full compliance with the Minsk agreements and to achieve a complete settlement of the conflict in Donbas.
The emphasis on "jointly" and "coordinated" with Germany is notable. The use of the phrases "ensure full compliance" and "achieve a complete settlement" is quite forceful. Putin is lending Macron political support as a “statesman” for the upcoming French Presidential elections. One must ask, given that Macron is prone to make grand speeches from which not much emerges, if this investment by Putin will pay dividends?
Indeed, Macron has been to Kyiv and President Zelensky seems now to understand which way the winds are blowing from the leading powers in Europe. A trade in the withdrawal of legislation between Ukraine and Russia has been made. Ukraine, at Zelensky's instruction, withdrew legislation which would have directly blocked some of the political elements of the Minsk Accords. In acknowledgment, Russia has withdrawn draft legislation which would have acknowledged the independence of the two breakaway republics.
An interesting tussle is developing with France and Germany, with possible assistance from Italy, elbowing NATO out of the way to achieve a political solution to the Ukraine situation and acknowledge the changing nature of security in Europe. Due to the nature of NATO requiring unity, and it including essentially belligerent states against Russia like Poland and the Baltic states, NATO will not be able to achieve a flexibility which can address the core issues which Russia is raising. However, an alliance of France, Germany and Italy and other states can. Quite some deft play will be required so as not to set off any animosity between France and Germany or other old sores. However, in situations like these there are opportunities for alliances of what may seem strange bed fellows.
As recently outlined, resistance to widespread economic sanctions enforced by the USA to include European states is being actively resisted by many an EU member including minimally Germany, France, Hungary, Croatia and Italy.
The Minsk Accords or Arming Ukraine to the Teeth
A recent article by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas Davies provides an excellent summary of the Minsk process and its history. (Points awarded for whomever came up with the title). Following an introduction with a political slant there is a concise summary of the development of the Minsk Accords (now at version 2) and the Normandy Format. This is followed by direct references to reports from the OSCE's monitoring mission in Ukraine which detail what has been happening on the ground. It concludes with a more political line but essentially just asks for people to stop yelling and bloviating and to support the only UN Security Council approved mechanism for resolving the conflict.
Medea and Nicolas do not hold their "punches". They criticize the Democratic wing of the bipartisan support for spending the USA’s wealth on purchasing military armaments to be gifted to other nations. The Democrats "one up'ed" the Republicans from USD 450 million to USD 500 to be used to purchase USA produced weapons to gift to one side of a civil war. How will any of this help anyone in Ukraine?
It will certainly help the weapons manufacturers and is certainly not helping regular USA citizens. Illuminating economic incentives for the USA's Military Industrial Complex’s influence on foreign policy is banal. One trusts that you have read that book already. Read the Afghanistan Papers based on the SIGAR reports for all you'll every really need to know. Then just auto apply that to every war the USA has started, from Syria all the way back to Vietnam and beyond.
These "congress critters" may think of this USD 450 or 500 million as "chump change" for the annual budget. They'd likely get a different opinion if they were to visit areas in the USA which are suffering financial hardship. The article does mention Pramila Jayapal and Barbara Lee as calling for negotiations and de-escalation. Recall that just after 9/11 Barbara Lee was the only voice in either house of the USA Congress that stood against handing additional powers (the Authorization for the Use of Military Force, or AUMF as its known) to the USA executive for waging unrestrained war after the crimes of that day.
[Video: from Rep. Barbara Lee’s own youtube channel].
A Marxist Periscope
Paul Jay recently published an interview (see Sources) with Professor Buzgalin from Moscow State University. He is asked to comment on the situation over Ukraine and so applies his Marxist analysis. I commend to you to listen to the interview, not to agree with it, but to consider the types of analyses are employed.
One of Buzgalin's most obvious but all too unspoken points is that focusing domestic attention on international causes for local trouble removes attention from any domestic causes involved. His analysis moves to social relations, a core Marxist topic, both within Ukraine and those between Ukraine and Russia as he moves away from a geopolitical to a community perspective.
[Part 2 of the interview is likely to be published in the next day or two, and Sources will be updated to include part 2 when it is available.]
From Geopolitics to People
Ukraine, as an independent nation, was born following the dissolution of the USSR. While GDP figures are a limited window into a country's economic situation, significant changes in GDP can highlight changes in local conditions.
[Image: Ukraine GDP from the World Bank.]
It would seem reasonable to examine the graph in correlation with Russia's changing fates over the period. During the Soviet Union, the Ukrainian SSR's most significant trading partner was Russia.
On the left we see the situation at the end of the USSR, and the gap of reporting is at the time of the dissolution. A period of loss of economic output following this echoes the financial challenges endured by Russia during the same period. From 2003 onwards, as Russia began to rebuild her economy so does Ukraine, but at quite an alarming rate.
We see a sudden drop in Ukraine's GDP around 2008 which corresponds to the NATO offer of potential membership and the political and military turmoil in Georgia. A recovery ensues until the 2014 coup in Ukraine whereupon an extreme loss in GDP occurs during the early and most violent phase of the civil war from which Ukraine is still suffering.
The graph highlights the degree of instability and turmoil which Ukraine's people have suffered during their 30 years of independence. Nearby and local, political and armed, conflicts have contributed to this destabilization.
While it is true that external factors have exacerbated tensions in Ukraine, they do exist within the country. The most compassionate attempt to describe the challenges facing Ukraine, and potential solutions to them which this author has found came from Professor Nicolai Petro of Rhode Island University [see Sources].
During Petro's introductory remarks he displays a collection of maps which are provided below in higher resolution:
[Image: elections in Ukraine 1991 to 2012. Source.]
The maps show regional results of the referendum for independence, and then a series of presidential and parliamentary elections. The top two rows show 1991 to 1999, with the bottom two rows showing 2002 to 2012.
It is not important to study each graph. Look at the bottom two rows. A very clear picture emerges of fundamental differences between the east and west of the country. This divide highlights, ethnic, linguistic and to some degree religious differentiation. Professor Petro, an expert on Ukraine, explores these differences, their origins and potential solutions to bridge them in the video below. It is full of nuance, and the caution of an academic. With patience one can learn much and gain a deeper understanding of the challenges which Ukraine faces, and of the catharsis and dialogue which can play roles in her healing.
While it is certainly true that external actors can inflame these divisions or attempt to assist in calming them, in the end, it is the Ukrainian people who need to engage with their own future and the stability of their own nation.
May they find the peace, compassion, trust and grace required.
Sources
President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz Joint News Conference, C-SPAN, 2022-02-07
News conference following Russian-French talks, Kremlin, 2022-02-08
Memo to Congress: Diplomacy for Ukraine Is Spelled M-i-n-s-k, Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J. S. Davies, AntiWar, 2022-02-09
The geographical (and historical?) divisions underlying Ukraine’s political strife, no author published, 2014-01-27
A Progressive Russian on Ukraine - Aleksandr Buzgalin pt 1/2, Paul Jay interviews Aleksandr Buzgalin (Александр Бузгалин), theAnalysis.news, 2022-02-08
VIDEO: ACURA’s Nicolai Petro: The Tragedy and Healing of Ukraine, Professor Nicolai Petro, ACURA, 2022-02-03
Culture
Hymns of the Russian Orthodox Church - Choir of the Trinity Lavra of St. Sergius, FearNoGrave, uploaded 2019-08-07
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