Israel v Iran: Zionist Strategic and Operational Failure

The exceptionalist psychopathy runs deep.

Published: 2024-10-29

Updated 2024-10-30: Included a summary of Scott Ritter’s statements and video on Judging Freedom. Also added Brian Berletic’s video report to sources.

Updated 2024-10-31: Added Dmitri Lascaris’ excellent report to sources.

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A consistency of analysis by Alastair Crooke, Col. Jacques Baud and Larry Johnson appeared on Monday 28th's Judging Freedom and Dialogue Works episodes. Israel's Air Force (IAF) attempted a multi-phase operation which was aborted after phase 1 failed to achieve its objective. The West's 5th-Gen stealth aircraft met combined Iranian and Russian air defence capabilities (ADC).

The West's reliance on air-power hit a wall.

Recall that Israel's Defence Minister Gallant stated, before the Apartheid state launched its attack, that it would demonstrate its "might".

Of the purported 100+ aircraft the IAF used, none entered Iranian airspace as none got closer than 70 Km from the border, said Crooke. He asserted that they fired 20 missiles. He heard from an Israeli contact that they encountered an unexpected ADC (air defence capability) around Tehran.

Phase 1 of the IAF operation was to "suppress enemy air defense", an SEAD operation. These were developed by the US military during the American War (as the Vietnamese term it). In an ideal SEAD operation, planes are flown between the range at which they are detected by enemy radar but not as far as the enemy missile range. This activates radars, keeping them illuminated, so that munitions designed to target and destroy them can be fired.

What happened during the IAF operation was far from ideal. Afterwards, Iran's ADC was still sufficiently active to put IAF craft for the second and possible third waves of bombers and other planes in danger of being shot down. This forced the operation, which was stated to have been planned for 10 to 12 hours, to be aborted at under 4 hours. [Update: Ritter’s statements on Judging Freedom made after this article’s composition disagree with this assessment. Please see sources for notes on his statements and the video.]

One can assume that the IAF fired everything it had brought to destroy illuminated radars but failed to clear a path for the subsequent airborne attacks. Crooke noted a look on Netanyahu and Gallant’s faces, in a picture taken in their “operations room” bunker, contorted with depression.

Iran's official response was that the damage was "limited". Its leadership are restrained in voicing their right to, and current lack of, response.

Why the SEAD operation technically failed so badly is not known. Commentators have had to take the small amount of operational reports and combine those with existing understanding of Israeli and US weapons systems capabilities.

An obvious factor which defeated the IAF attack was the combination of ADCs Russia loaned to Iran and Iran’s native ADCs. Another element is the electronic warfare (EW) system(s) which analysts believe Russia provided Iran. Israel's missiles use GPS, which makes them vulnerable to Russia's EW systems even if they use some onboard radar for final target acquisition. The combination of EW and the combined ADCs likely explain the failure of phase 1 to clear the path for later Israeli attack phases.

Crooke posited another potential factor. Israeli F-35 pilots may have met an operational anti-stealth ADC. If this is what occurred, it has changed the geostrategic picture. It nullifies the efficacy of stealth airplanes against prepared Russian and/or Iranian ADCs and turns the US F-35 program into an even more colossal waste of funds. Russia has built its own 5th generation fighters, but they are not compromised by trying to be a swiss-army knife. Each airplane type has its role capabilities. Russia's primary air weapon are high precision, hypersonic (and thus Western ADC penetrating) missiles, launchable from land, sea or sky.

Another minor factor would be the US Intel Leaks of October 22nd, which confirmed the expected type of attack which Israel was exercising. The attack which Israel attempted matched the warning. The warning may have contributed a little to Iran’s preparedness.

Israel's failure to achieve the objectives of is operation is based on a limitation of the operation chosen and yet another underestimation of the capability of its enemies.

Iran's April response to Israel's missile attack on the Vienna Conventions and Iran's diplomatic mission in Damascus, Syria, was based on flooding Israel's ADC with hundreds of old drones and missiles timed to arrive at once. This flooding assisted a few ballistic missiles in striking their intended targets, which demonstrated Iran's capability to penetrate Israel's defenses to the world, irrespective of Israel's denial. Israel does not have the capacity to flood Iran's defenses using air launched missiles. It lacks sufficient aircraft. It may also lack sufficient ground launched missiles. Its air based attack had to remove Iran's ADC but failed to do so. Israel lacked an understanding of the ADC and/or sufficient missiles to destroy the systems. It underestimated its enemy.

Baud noted that this is a pattern, both in Israel and the West more generally, though Israel suffers from it particularly. Israel's military history includes the great success of the 1967 war, which was a surprise attack. (It also included the ignominious attack on the USS Liberty, whose crew remain the most decorated in US naval history.) The 1973 war was saved for Israel by the US. During the 2006 invasion of southern Lebanon the IDF had to put its tail between its legs and withdraw because it had underestimated Hezbollah. The same is happening today in southern Lebanon. This is Israel's military history. Israel’s arrogance is based upon a false understanding of its prowess.

Failure to accurately assess an enemy's capability has been demonstrated by the US and NATO in Ukraine. After two and a half years of warfare, Ukraine is about to be defeated in Russia’s Kursk oblast. Meanwhile, its forces are collapsing in southern Donestsk and pressured elsewhere on its eastern fronts. The casualty ratio is still around 1:5 to the advantage of Russia.

All of this is despite Ukraine beginning the war as the strongest NATO trained and equipped army in Europe and having an outstanding advantage in drones. Russia's ADC and EW systems played a role in producing that 1:5 advantage. The West has not produced anything to counter this Russian capacity. On the other hand, Russia has developed its FAB glide bombs against which Ukraine has no defence. Russia's pre-existing hypersonic missile technology has proven itself in battle. Russia has devolved their use down to the battalion level to be unified with the ISR capabilities delivered by its new drone fleets. This is what a capable military looks like. Russia is not fighting a second rate enemy, but one supplied by the West. Its tactics are not overwhelming operations causing mass destruction. Instead, its strategy is one of careful attrition on its own timetable.

Returning to Israel, its failed attack on Iran has gifted Iran tempo — it has the ball. As Larry Johnson remarked, and your author previously suggested, Iran's response is most likely to be through the Axis of Resistance. Why should Iran hand the ball back to Israel by responding directly? Providing assistance to Hezbollah's civilian arm via humanitarian aid would surely be a smarter strategy. The same is true of humanitarian aid to Gaza, overt or covert. One can be certain that the IRGC will be discussing with Ansarallah their needs.

Israel is losing soldiers and machinery. Far more importantly, it is losing civilians via emigration. Its economy is imploding due to its horrific behaviour and the effectiveness of Ansarallah. Time is not on Israel's side. In response to its genocide in Gaza, its enemies have engaged it in a war of attrition which it cannot win.

It has become the definition of a pariah state. It is at risk of being ejected from the United Nations and will almost certainly be found guilty of genocide at the International Court of Justice.

The US is not rushing to Israel’s military aid. Israel has failed to "draw the US in" and Iran is very unlikely to help by commiting the types atrocities in Israel which the Zionists are executing in Gaza and Lebanon. Israel cannot see that the US military cannot, will not, sacrifice its regional bases and blood to save the psychopathic Zionists, no matter how much they own Congress.

Israel can bribe US politicians. It will need a different currency to blackmail the US military.

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Sources

Israel Attacks Iran, YesXorNo, 2024-10-26

Usrael Intel Leaks, YesXorNo, 2024-10-22

The USS Liberty: An Anniversary of Bravery, Determination and Sorrow, YesXorNo, 2022-06-12

The FAB and the Donbas, YesXorNo, 2024-03-12

Parchin, Wikipedia

Israel's Strike On Iran： A Sign Of Strength Or Weakness? [ETd8szLSXZs], Dmitri Lascaris, Reason2Resist, 2024-10-28

Alastair Crooke: Israel’s Preference For Self-Destruction. [txkNk76E3SI], Napolitano interviews Crooke, Judging Freedom, 2024-10-28

Col. Jacques Baud ｜ Israel Facing Total Collapse？ Unprecedented Defeats Unravel on All Fronts! [Gd4qO57vhbA], Alkhorshid interviews Baud, Dialogue Works, 2024-10-28

Larry C. Johnson: Iran's Defense System Just Cripple Israel？ - Hezbollah Strikes Back Hard at IDF! [tXj7V6UZCGU], Alkhorshid interviews Johnson, Dialogue Works, 2024-10-28

Scott Ritter: Iran and Hezbollah Crushing IDF. [6C_H3qShRn0], Napolitano interviews Ritter, Judging Freedom, 2024-10-29

Notes

00:08:57 to 00:13:27

Ritter confirmed the use of ALBMs (air-launched ballistic missiles), as per the intelligence leaks [ROCKS, Sparrow etc.]. He relied on the '56' which was revealed by the leaks as indicative of the 'strike package' which the IAF used. He estimated 40 missiles fired to disable ADCs. This would leave a remainder to target a claimed Iranian missile production facilty at Parchin (which was mentioned by Crooke) and potentially one or two other sites. Ritter characterized the choice of targets by Israel as a "we hit the missile production facilities which you used to attack us" type justification.

Ritter stated that his experience in battle damage assessment tends him towards the Iranian assessment of limited damage more so than Israel's claims of success. Ritter confirmed Crooke's statement that no Israeli planes "came close" to Iranian airspace. They were fired from Iraqi airspace, north of Baghdad. The airframes were "F-35s, F-15I's, F-16I's". The 100 planes comprised the bulk of the IAF's capacity.

There was no 'second wave' because there could have been one. Thus, the attack was not "called off". It launched all of the intended munitions.

Ritter stated that he believes that Israel flew through Jordanian airspace to reach Iraq's before launching the missile attack. That Russia has "advanced detection" capability in southern Syria forced Israel to avoid Syrian airspace, which they have used in the past, else Russia would have provided Iran advanced notice of the attack. If Israel used Jordanian airspace it would have needed permission from the Kingdom of Jordan which puts Jordan in an even more difficult political position in the region.

Israel Launches Limited Strikes on Iran [CbFdlDbfqpI], Brian Berletic, The New Atlas, 2024-10-26

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