Usrael Intel Leaks

Whichever way you look at it, the Pentagon is preventing a regional war in southwest Asia.

Published: 2024-10-22

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The Leak

Two images [republished by Antiwar] of highly classified [US] intelligence reports [HCIRs] were published by the "Middle East Spectator" Telegram channel on Thursday 17th October 2024. One image was of a document produced by the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGIA) of the US Department of Defence (DoD). The other is from NIMAST, which is unknown to this author. The NIMAST document cites the use of signals intelligence from the US National Security Agency (NSA). Stephen Bryen wrote that both documents are from the NGIA.

The reports cover US intelligence on the Israeli Air Force on the 15th and 16th of October during which the Israeli Defence Force conducted a second Large-Force Employment (LFE) exercise. The reports categorize the LFEs as preparation for an IDF attack on Iran.

The information on the latest exercise included locations, types and quantity of munitions handled, delivery vehicles and associated systems:

• Hatserim, Ramat David, Ovda and Ramon airfields in Israel

• sixteen [16] Golden Horn ALBMs and "at least" fourty [40] IS02 (Rocks) ALBMs. (An ALBM is an air-launched ballistic missile. However, Bryen classifies these two munitions as cruise rather than ballistic missiles, so the acronym is partially misleading.)

• six F-15I ('I' as in Israel) planes, which would potentially carry the missiles

• at least one RA-01 covert drone (observed at Ramon)

• three KC-707 air-refueling tankers

• one G-550 Gulfstream "airborne early warning aircraft"

The NIMAST report correlated the exercise with an attack the IDF executed on 2024-09-29 against Yemen to quantify the airforce capability being exercised.

The NGIA report characterized the ALBMs as "long range". It admitted that the DoD knows that the IDF possess nuclear weapons when it stated:

we have not observed indications that Israel intends to use a nuclear weapon.

It also stated that:

• IDF Navy is dispersing from Haifa

• Israel “likely dispersed [its] MRBMs on 1 October. […] MRBM dispersal is almost certainly defensive”

The MRBMs [medium range ballistic missiles] to which the report is refering are named as Israel’s Jericho II missiles, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Israel has dispersed them to preseve at least some from any Iranian response to the planned attack for which the exercises have been practice.

The NGIA report included a serious warning that the Israeli attack on Iran

can occur with no further GEOINT warning

[italics mine]

These are the concluding words of the brief introductory paragraph. It warns of an urgency to avert an emergency.

Confirmation

US Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson confirmed that there is an "investigation underway and I'll get a briefing on that in a couple of hours" when asked about the publication of the two images of the HCIRs soon after their publication was acknowledged by US media. That an official investigation is occurring and the House Speaker has been informed of it confirms the authenticity of the documents.

Their publication is highly embarrassing. It has placed serious strains on trust between the US and Israeli militaries. The investigation will need to differentiate between a leak or a hack. The overwhelming likelihood is a leak, logical reasons for which are presented below.

Classification

The NIMAST report contains one headline and six paragraphs, each with their own and differing classifications. Classifications indicate not only distribution limitation but also sourcing. From a 2006 US Air Force document describing the procedure for classification one can translate the acronyms used:

• FGI: Foreign Government Information

• NF or NOFORN: No Foreign, meaning for US eyes only.

• RSEN: Risk Sensitive

• REL TO [country or organisation codes]: May be released to

• S: Secret

• TK: Talent Keyhole

• TS: Top Secret

FVEY, which is used in the classifications on both documents is a contraction of the code FIVE-EYES. It is the network of the military intelligence agencies of: USA, UK[GBR], Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

One item from the NIMAST report is classified 'TS//FGI ISR//NF' indicating Top Secret, Israel as the source, and that its is for US eyes only. The content was given to the US by Israel on condition that it was not released to anybody. This trust has been betrayed.

Expert commentators and your author believe that this betrayal was almost certainly deliberate — the price to pay to stop a regional war.

The Reporting

The first US news media report of the HCIRs leak was published by Axios and authored by Barak Ravid. Alan MacLeod recently reported that Ravid is a former member of Israel's signals intelligence agency, Unit 8200, and was recently an IDF reservist.

This may indicate that the leak was first detected by Unit 8200 which then informed Ravid whose article exposed the US embarrassment and probable betrayal. Ravid was careful to qualify his report by declaring that then, the authenticity of the leaks was not (yet) confirmed.

The next news publication was by CNN, which acknowledged Axios as the first publisher. CNN consulted a US official to describe the images as authentic and thus reveal the compromise of intelligence. The rest of the US legacy Wurlitzer then issued their own variants on the compromise (Reuters, AP, NYT, etc.). See Sources below for all.

Origins

When US government spokespersons have been asked about the loss of control of the HCIRs they have directed reporters to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence which is the highest office responsible for intelligence security.

As an IT security professional I can assure you that hacking the NGIA at the DoD would be extremely difficult for a nation state actor with a large budget and a team of experts. If one hacked the DoD, one would not publish the information obtained as that would trigger an internal investigation which may reveal the penetration, and so one may lose one's invaluable access. The only exception to this would be that your penetration is so good that you are certain that you can re-penentrate at will. I do not believe that the US National Security Agency would leave the DoD that vulnerable.

This was a purposeful leak.

One of these classifications within the documents is NOFORN. It is the item which was sourced from Israel. Thus, the leak was from the US intelligence community or Israel. It is a leak of deliberately selected documents. Because it is a leak, the publisher was chosen by the leaker.

If the leaker was the US, which this author believes, then there may have been some rush in the leak process as a result of the urgency created by those final words of the NIMAST document’s introduction: no further GEOINT warning.

Motives

Col. Jacques Baud identified two potential motives for the leak and assigned probability.

He believes the most likely motive is to minimize the likelihood, by minimizing the effectiveness, of a potential Israeli attack on Iran. The publication of the type and quantity of munitions and weapons systems informs an Iranian defense which, in turn, would minimize the effectiveness of an attack based on this "package" (to use a nasty military term). As Stephen Bryen phrased it:

It is extraordinarily valuable material that Iran can, and likely will, use to prepare its defenses.

The other, unlikely, motive mentioned by Baud was that the leak was to mislead Iran, to have its military exert effort to prepare for an attack based on this package and then to use a different one. This would be a "false sense of security" ploy. This author agrees with Baud that this is extremely unlikely. The intelligence revealed merely confirms the type of package which has been openly discussed in independent media. It provides no novel military information.

That Israel itself leaked this information to misdirect Iran is the second plausible, though less likely, origin of the leak. It would require that Israel has penetrated the NGIA. Unit 8200 would be the one agency which may have the confidence to repenetrate. Israel may have leaked this if they knew that they would not be allowed to execute the attack. There is no loss of intelligence. It potentially misdirects the Iranians. It puts egg on the face of the US military who are the only organisation who could have denied them the attack.

[Update 2024-10-30: Given that Israel attacked Iran from Friday into the morning of Saturday 2024-10-26, and that the attack used elements of the intelligence leaked, the possibility of the leak having been from a deliberate Israel source is discounted. The leak was by the US, and almost certainly from its military/military-intelligence sector.]

Because there is nothing interesting in the leaked reports and it corresponds to reasoned analysis, it is highly likely that the leak is a confirmation and a warning to Iran.

The purpose of the leak was to undermine the military operation which Israel was preparing. More generically, it was a public declaration of opposition by a subset of the US military to any "Large-Force Exercise" type attack on Iran by Israel.

Col. Baud noted that in his dealings with US colleagues (i.e Colonels) none of them liked their Israeli counterparts. They flaunt the laws of war which betrays the honor and professionalism military officers.

Consequences

The cost of stopping a regional war has been a betrayal of whatever trust existed between the IDF and US military, with other potential side effects. As Bryen noted, one of Israel's biggest problems [assuming it was not the leaker] is that it does not know the scope of the leak.

The public knows of two leaked documents. Were there more which were provided? Were they provided to the publisher or to Iran? Did Iran just select these two for "Middle East Spectator"?

Non-Proliferation

Another consequence is that the US military has admitted that Israel has nuclear weapons. This means that technically the US administration will be breaking US law with any future supply arms to Israel, because Israel is not signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

US administrations break their own law all the time. The question is will a plaintiff and lawyer be found with enough courage to sue the government. The government wont sue itself.

Another Foreign Policy Coup

This leak is another case of the US military wresting US foreign policy from its political leadership, whoever did the leak. It followed the recent intervention by the Pentagon preventing hawks in the White House from approving long range missile strikes into Russia by another unruly recipient of the Military Industrial Complex's weaponry, Ukraine.

That the US military is the last "adult in the [US] room" is highly concerning. If this leak contributes to avoiding a regional war in southwest Asia, many can be thankful.

The scale of corruption and the continued illusory belief in US exceptionalism has induced US foreign policy makers to have now twice reached the alarming condition that their military has had to intervene to stop reckless political action.

This is the dangerous, failing state of the US "Rules Based Order" as another arises in Kazan.

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Sources

[The Leak] EXCLUSIVE: An informed source within the U.S. intelligence community has shared with us ..., Middle East Spectator, Telegram, 2024-10-17

Leaked US Intelligence Documents Outline Israeli Preparations to Strike Iran, Connor Freeman, Antiwar, 2024-10-19

• NGIA report

• NIMAST report

More Fallout From Leak of US Intelligence on Israel Prep for Iran Attack, Larry Johnson, SONAR21, 2024-10-20

Leak of Sensitive Intelligence to Iran Shakes Israel's Plan to Hit Iran and More, Stephen Bryen, Weapons and Strategy, 2024-10-20

Revealed: The Israeli Spies Writing America's News, Alan MacLeod, ScheerPost, 2024-10-17

Guidelines for CAPCO Markings, Air Force Directorate of Security Forces Information Security Devision, Department of the Air Force, 2006-05-30

Pro-Iranian account leaks alleged U.S. intel on Israel's attack plans, Barak Ravid, Axios, 2024-10-19

Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say, Natasha Bertrand and Alex Marquardt, CNN, 2024-10-19

Alleged US intel on Israeli preparations for strike on Iran appears online, Staff, Times of Israel, 2024-10-20

US investigates leak on intelligence about Israel's Iran attack plans, (Editors), Reuters, 2024-10-21

The US is investigating an unauthorized release of classified documents on Israel’s attack plans, Zeke Miller, Mike Balsamo, Eric Tucker & Tara Copp, Associated Press, 2024-10-20

Leaked U.S. Intelligence Suggests Israel Is Preparing to Strike Iran, Julian E. Barnes, Ronen Bergman & David E. Sanger, The New York Times, 2024-10-19

U.S. Investigates Intelligence Leak About Israel’s Plans for Attacking Iran, Michael R. Gordon & Dustin Volz, The Wall Street Journal, 2024-10-20

Terrorists plan to stage provocations in Syria using toxic agents — Russian military, TASS, 2024-10-20

• Not referred to in this article, but topical. Reminiscent of the OPCW scandal. See The Grayzone and Aaron Maté.

Usrael Extd: US Intel Leaks (again), YesXorNo, 2024-10-20

Usrael: A Proxy-Bridge Too Far, YesXorNo, 2024-10-18

London, Washington. We have a problem., YesXorNo, 2024-09-20

Israel Attacks Iran, YesXorNo, 2024-10-26

Col. Jacques Baud: Is Israel on the Brink of a Devastating Defeat by Iran and Hezbollah? [dpyGi__K3X8], Alkhorshid interviews Baud, Dialogue Works, 2024-10-21

Alastair Crooke ： Resistance Escalates; Netanyahu Degenerates [vx6E3eywKk0], Napolitano interviews Crooke, Judging Freedom, 2024-10-21

Ray McGovern: US Aid to Israel is Illegal [h1MsR5dbz0o], Napolitano interviews McGovern, Judging Freedom, 2024-10-21

Scott Ritter: Secret Documents; Attempts to Assassinate Netanyahu [uCt1oRjdufU], Napolitan interviews Ritter, Judging Freedom, 2024-10-21

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