[Image: a compilation by the author.]
Published 2023-02-12
Introduction
In a recent publication, M. K. Bhadrakumar cites two publications, one by RAND corp. and the other by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies which show a distinct change in the almost year long idiotic narrative being pushed in the public and policy spheres of the USA over the conflict in Ukraine since late February 2022. He buttresses these with articles from USA commercial media reinforcing the narrative shift. M.K.B elegantly titled his article "Waiting for Biden’s definition of victory in Ukraine".
Now seems an appropriate time to acknowledge the military analysts, informed commentators, journalists, academics and former diplomats who have provided the basis for the position taken in this newsletter over the most recent phase of conflict in Ukraine.
A Summary
That position has been somewhat nuanced. Firstly, the Russian invasion was and is illegal by the standards of international law. This is somewhat blurred by the fact that people do have a right to political autonomy. The peoples of the Donbas have been resisting the coup installed regime in Kiev, including the corrupt funders and Nazi allies, since 2014. They have been pleading for support from Russia the whole time.
Russian Federation President Putin used Article 51 of the UN Charter to provide some legitimacy for Russia’s actions. Russia recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples Republics (the DPR and LPR), established diplomatic missions and then responded to the Republics’ calls for aid.
This occurred following a sudden increase in shelling by Ukraine against its own people, which this newsletter was following closely from mid-February 2022. (Interestingly, 4 of the 6 video sources for that ongoing report are now censored by Youtube/Google/Alphabet Inc.) It was this Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) preparation for an offensive which prompted Russia's "Special Military Operation". Russia feared a massive military push by the AFU into the Donbas which would have resulted in an ethnic cleansing, or genocide, by the Nazi elements incorporated into the AFU after the coup. These and less ideologically extreme AFU units have been trained and armed by NATO countries. We now know that the Minsk Accords were a ruse designed to allow this training, an arming of a NATO force by western players. Within this process was graft, not least by the Biden family.
One may see the Russian dash to create a conflict zone around Kiev as a failed strategy. It certainly did force the AFU to deploy forces to defend the capital which prevented reinforcing the eastern front. It also created a potential end to the conflict at the negotiations in Istanbul. This was prevented by USA/NATO representative and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. No! There shall be no peace. May this rest on his tombstone, you warmonger. We know who pays your bills.
The story from there, after the pullback from Kiev, has been a war of attrition in which the coalition of the DPR, LPR and Russia have made steady advances. On occasion they have withdrawn from territory which did not provide strategic advantage, particularly in Kharkiv and later Kherson. It is worth noting that Russia well understands a land based war of attrition dominated by artillery duels. The use of modern drones to obtain intelligence on enemy positions is a significant operational change in this mode of warfare, though the principles remain the same. Another source of intelligence was recently revealed; Russia's passive acoustic and seismic sensors which do not emit radiation.
Russia's military production capabilities were given impetus and a state council not seen since WWII was established to streamline production and ensure that the correct, required goods were produced. The western economic sanctions on Russia utterly failed, much to Russia's surprise. The call up of 300 000 reservists also generated 80 000 volunteers. Russia has taken the opportunity to demonstrate to the West what a precision guided Mark X Hypersonic missile means. Russia has played an open hand in capability and objectives while maintaining strict confidentiality of military strategy.
This conflict is a tragedy for Ukraine.
It has accelerated the geoeconomic shifts outside of US dollar (USD) trade relations between many countries formerly of the Non-Aligned Movement or even aligned with the USA. Saudi Arabia stands out. China has played a deft hand in wooing resource rich economies into non-USD trade as a natural response to the economic war. India too has carefully balanced its interests. As Pepe Escobar continues to highlight, Iran has also been carefully negotiating its position. The development of the International North-South Trade Corridor is an important vehicle in these changing trade relations. Here we have that which Pepe labels the "Quad that matters": China, Russia, India, Iran.
Other regions are also negotiating their way into the coming non-Unipolar world, particularly in Latin America, Africa and South East Asia.
Signs on the horizon indicate that as this conflict in Ukraine comes to a conclusion, the USA and its NATO vassals will produce another conflict, this time over Taiwan. Collapsing empires are dangerous beasts. The changing field of international trade outside of the USA's currency is the tolling bell of this coming collapse.
A Heartfelt Thanks
Thanks to the following for their efforts to engage with reality during the latest phase of the Ukraine conflict rather than echoing the soundbites and narratives spewed from NATO's propaganda arms masquerading as news organisations:
Thanks to those with some or extensive military experience:
Col. Douglas Macregor
Scott Ritter
Brian Berletic (of The New Atlas)
Bernard (of Moon Of Alabama)
Mike Jones (aka iEarlGrey)
To commentators/analysts/journalists without military experience but possessing a clear eyed view of reality:
The Alexes (of The Duran)
Pepe Escobar
Caitlin Johnstone
Dave DeCamp (news editor of Antiwar)
Eva K. Bartlett
Patrick Lancaster
Joe Lauria (editor-in-chief Consortium News)
Aaron Maté (of The Grayzone)
The array of informed political analysts and commentators who have appeared on shows like RT's CrossTalk and PressTV's Spotlight (Ray McGovern, Larry Johnson, Gilbert Doctorow and others). Note that the former CIA analysts McGovern and Johnson do possess military training.
On the academic front, to Professors:
John Mearsheimer
Richard Sakwa
Glenn Deisen
Nicolai Petro
On the (former) diplomatic front, to:
M. K. Bhadrakuma (India)
Jack Matlock (USA)
Tony Kevin (Australia)
Lastly, the diplomatic cables published by Wikileaks, reportedly provided by Chelsea Manning, have provided excellent historical background. The Burns "Nyet means Nyet" cable is priceless.
Integrity
In his recent commentary Craig Murray laments the state of western media, or information warfare brigades. The piece is inspired by Sy Hersh's recent investigative article describing the players behind and mechanisms used by the USA and Norway to destroy 3 of the 4 Nordstream I & II dual piplelines.
While Murray rightly laments the constant attack on free speech created by the information warmongers, I thank those named above for maintaining their integrity and sticking their heads above the weaponized narrative parapet.
To the EU I offer the medal of cowardice for banning RT. This followed Ukraine banning all opposition media. You are not "saving" democracy. The brave commentators named above are.
Sources
Waiting for Biden’s definition of victory in Ukraine, M. K. Bhadrakumar, his website, 2023-02-09
CrossTalk | "Korea Solution", Lavell is joined by McGovern, Johnson and Doctorow to discuss the Hersh article and the latest talking points on Ukraine, CrossTalk [RT], 2023-02-11
Culture
Cowboy Junkies - Sweet Jane (Official Video), Cowboy Junkies (from 1988 “The Trinity Session”), their youtube channel, uploaded 2018-09-14. The song was written by The Velvet Underground, released on their 4th studio album “Loaded” in 1970. This is Lou Reed’s favorite version of the song. Reed was featured on “Loaded”.
Notification
Subscription is optional. Subscribers can expect notifications for most articles. Better is to use RSS, or bookmark the Archive page and visit at leisure. If you use Twitter, following @YesXorNo1 is also an effective notifications strategy.
Copyright and Licensing
This work is copyright to the blog's author with CC BY-SA 4.0 licensing. Have fun, reuse, remix etc. but give credit and place no further restrictions. Let’s build culture.
"Firstly, the Russian invasion was and is illegal by the standards of international law."
Not according to Scott Ritter:
"Under Article 51, there can be no doubt as to the legitimacy of Russia’s contention that the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass had been subjected to a brutal eight-year-long bombardment that had killed thousands of people.… Moreover, Russia claims to have documentary proof that the Ukrainian Army was preparing for a massive military incursion into the Donbass which was pre-empted by the Russian-led “special military operation.” [OSCE figures show an increase of government shelling of the area in the days before Russia moved in.]
..The bottom line is that Russia has set forth a cognizable claim under the doctrine of anticipatory collective self-defense, devised originally by the U.S. and NATO, as it applies to Article 51 which is predicated on fact, not fiction.
While it might be in vogue for people, organizations, and governments in the West to embrace the knee-jerk conclusion that Russia’s military intervention constitutes a wanton violation of the United Nations Charter and, as such, constitutes an illegal war of aggression, the uncomfortable truth is that, of all the claims made regarding the legality of pre-emption under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine is on solid legal ground.”