Sequencing Wars

The Marathon Initiative, pacing Imperial action.

Published: 2025-04-24

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News Wrap

Larry Johnson gave us a very snappy summary of events, which condenses to:

• Zelensky refused to concede Crimea is Russian

• This was enough for the EuroVassals to abort traveling to London to talk peace

• Trump and Vance yelled at Zelensky

• US envoy Witkoff is supposedly still headed for did visit Moscow [Updated 2025-04-26]

The reason for Witkoff’s visit to Russia, suggests Johnson, is Iran.

The technical discussions between US and Iranian groups scheduled for Wednesday 23rd April have been postponed to the Saturday afterward. They will be held in Oman (as per the first Witkoff/Araqchi talks).

Guess who just visited Russia?

[The Sultan of Oman at the Kremlin]

I believe that Russia is prepared to help the United States conclude a deal with Iran that will guarantee an end to any plans to build a nuclear weapon. President Putin hosted the Sultan of Oman on Monday, and the two discussed the upcoming meeting in Muscat between the US and Iran. The Sultan is acting as the mediator in the negotiations.

[Johnson]

Preparing for the London Mess

In the lead up to the latest failure by the political leadership of Britain, France, Germany (and Poland, to which we'll come) to end a war on their doorstep, the Western military intelligence rumor mill posing as a news service issued articles saying that Russia would settle the conflict on current front lines. The nonsensical claim was first published by the Financial Times, according to people familiar with the matter (TM). One of the authors, Henry Foy, has form for this type of anonymous disinformation. The article of quote free, anonymous assertions was then republished far and wide by the Wurlitzer (Kyiv Independent, Meduza, The Sun, ...).

Poor Kremlin spokesman Peskov had to correct the rumors, describing them as "fake", while omitting the word "news", because it wasn't.

If the puzzled people of Europe can't read RT because the EU banned it, how could they know what Russia is saying? Its not as though Russia hasn't been repeating its core position for almost a year and noting that it'll get worse (for Ukraine) the longer the war goes on.

Perhaps the puzzled EuroPlebs will realise that accepting having the primary English language news service of one party to a war on their continent creates the conditions to be totally misled? Perhaps not.

Discussion

On this week's episode of Dialogue Works with John Helmer and Ray McGovern, Helmer applied his most recent article to the current, diplomatic dog's breakfast over Ukraine.

The article is a journalist's response to earlier commentary from first Alexander Mercouris and then Larry Johnson. Those comments were on a 2021 article by A. Wess Mitchell. It presented "strategies" for how the US could preserve its hegemony. One of those options was to first destabilize Russia and then go on to the main course of China, which amounts to what happened by provoking Russia.

Helmer did the digging to identify Mitchell and his partner (Eldridge Colby), the firm they've established (The Marathon Initiative), and its recent funding ($1.07 million from the Pentagon, of which they paid themselves two thirds). Wess Mitchell was a senior State Department official in Trump’s first term. Eldridge Colby is now the Pentagon’s chief strategist, wrote Helmer. Two of Mitchell's papers' headlines read “To prevent China grabbing Taiwan, stop Russia in Ukraine” [i.e the current war] and “Strategic Sequencing, Revisited”.

Helmer belittled Mitchell dryly with:

Mitchell, a German-speaking American academic, has been awarded prizes for the idea that empire-running governments with far-flung borders, bases, and interests to defend should avoid too many fights with too many enemies simultaneously. Mitchell’s military solution is the clock – sequence military priorities over time so as to maximize the force needed, one fight or one war at a time.

[Helmer]

During the discussion with McGovern, the two happily disagreed on some aspects of what is playing out. McGovern emphasized the opportunity for peace, based on the trust, declared by Peskov, between Putin and Trump. McGovern also stressed that Putin understand's Trump ego. Helmer was betting on the deep-state, citing the Mitchell article and noting Colby's current position.

Helmer’s article added data showing that arms supplies into Ukraine have not significantly reduced. He provided additional quotes from the US Army which demonstrate that US forces in Europe are not being reduced but re-positioned.

This, incidently, matches what is happeining in Syria. Claims of troop reduuctions may be temporarily true, but the US is building two new bases in Syria. One is to be at Dier Ezzor. It will secure the central border crossing between Syria and Iraq, as al Tanf does in the south. The Kurds, supported by the US at a northern base, secure the north. The US controls all road traffic between Iraq (and thus Iran) and Syria.

Helmer's conclusion is that what is occurring in Europe is a transfer of responsibility for the war, not an end to it. The "negotiations" which will fail are a smoke screen. In discussion with Ray and Nima, to emphasize the basis for his position, he asked:

"Do you think the US is going to abandon its hegemony in Europe?"

The plan is exactly as embattled US Secretary of Defense Hegseth laid out at NATO HQ two months ago.

The Ukraine war is to be managed by Europe. The heft of the military production and hosting is to borne by Germany and Poland, augmented by whatever France and Britain contribute. One may recall that Polish Foreign Minister Sikorsky thanked the USA for destroying the Nord Stream pipelines (before deleting the tweet).

The military supplies to Ukraine have been moved through the Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport in Poland on Ukraine's border. Germany has provided the most military supplies from Europe.

Supply & Demand

Simplicius noted that:

Ukraine’s permanent representative to the UN Andriy Melnyk has requested for Germany to cough up a whopping 30% of the Bundeswehr’s treasure to ensure Ukraine’s continued survival.

[Simplicius]

Die Welt published an "open letter" by Melnyk beginning "Dear Friedrich Merz". Its request was summarized as:

1.Transfer 30% of the Bundeswehr's arsenal to the Ukrainian Armed Forces — including 45 Eurofighter fighters, 100 Leopard-2 tanks, 300 Fuchs armored personnel carriers, dozens of helicopters, multiple launch rocket systems, and armored vehicles.

2.Enshrine in law the allocation of 0.5% of Germany's GDP to aid Ukraine — 86 billion euros by 2029.

3.Convince the G7 and the European Union to allocate 0.5% of GDP — 550 billion euros in aid over 4 years.

4.Confiscate 200 billion euros of Russian assets and guarantee Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU.

5.And, of course, to transfer 150 Taurus missiles.

[Simplicius]

There is a reality behind this obviously impossible demand. Germany has just reduced its promise of 4 IRIS-T missile defense systems to 1. The rest may be delivered in 2026 or later. The German correction was summarized as:

despite the official announcement, there will be no main battle tanks, no infantry fighting vehicles and only a single IRIS-T SLM fire unit, in which two additional IRIS-T SLS launchers are integrated, in addition to the weapon systems already promised this year.

[Simplicius]

Unplayed cards

If Trump hands the conflict over to Europe without having achieved the "payback" of acquiring the "mineral rights" deal, this plays into Britain's hand. It still has Zaluzhny under wraps ready to roll out when Zelensky finally leaves the stage. The secret annexes to its "100 Year" partnership with Ukraine are its insurance.

The US will continue to benefit for years as Europe bankrupts itself purchasing weapons while building a defense industrial base for a war which wouldn't happen if it negotiated a new security architecture with Russia.

Such are the games being played at the cost of 1 200 Ukrainian lives per day, at a minimum, every day.

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Sources

Ukraine Peace Deal Unravels, Expert Talks on Iran’s Uranium Enrichment Postponed; Sonar21; Archive.today; 2025-04-24

Trump Slams Zelensky for Delaying Peace Negotiations With Russia; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-04-23

Setback For U.S. 'Ceasefire' Deal In Ukraine; b.; Moon of Alabama; 2025-04-23

The Real Trump Default Is European War With Russia So The Us Can Escalate War With China -- The Case Of The Arms Supply Line From Rzeszow To Kiev ; John Helmer; Dances with Bears; 2025-04-22

SITREP 4/22/25: Ukraine Begs 30% of Bundeswehr Stock to Survive; Simplicius; Simplicius' Garden of Knowledge; 2025-04-23

Former Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski thanks US for damaging Nord Stream - World; N/A; TASS; 2022-09-28

Iran's "Fattah-1" Hypersonic Missile is Accurate, Lethal and Unstoppable; Mike Whitney; The Unz Review; 2025-04-22

FT Rubbish

Vladimir Putin offers to halt Ukraine invasion along current front line; Ft; Archive.today; 2025-04-23

Putin offers US to freeze Ukraine war along current front line, FT reports; Kyivindependent; Archive.today; 2025-04-24

Putin offers to freeze Ukraine invasion along current battle lines as U.S. suggests recognition of annexed territories — The Financial Times — Meduza; meduza.io; Archive.today; 2025-04-24

Kremlin Says Peace Possible if Ukraine Withdraws from Russian-Claimed Territory; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-04-23

• This is the formal Kremlin response to the BS from FT.

Real Events

Israeli Strikes on Gaza Kill 37 Palestinians Over 24 Hours; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-04-21

• The Genocide: Day 562

Israeli Attacks Kill 38 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-04-23

• The Genocide: Day 564

Iran Says Israel Trying To 'Undermine' Tehran's Talks With US; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-04-21

US Plans To Relocate Troops in Kurdish-Controlled Syria to Two New Military Bases; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-04-22

Houthis Shoot Down Yet Another US MQ-9 Reaper as US Airstrikes Pound Yemen; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-04-22

Russia Says Putin, Witkoff Meeting Made 'Progress'; Kyle Anzalone; Antiwar; 2025-04-25

Hegseth Leaves Healey Floggin' a Dead Horse; YesXorNo; 2025-02-12

Ray McGovern and John Helmer: Is This How WW3 Starts?; Alkhorshid interviews Hlmer & McGovern; Dialogue Works; 2025-04-23

Zelenskyy's Refusal Triggers Russia's Massive Missile & Drone Strike 🚀💥 Military Summary 2025.04.24; Dima; Military Summary; 2025-04-24

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