Hegseth Leaves Healey Floggin' a Dead Horse
No NATO for Ukraine, Novorossiya is Novorossiya, Tulsi confirmed and Indonesia joined BRICS last month
Published: 2025-02-13
Updated 2025-02-14: New reference to the Diesen article added, plus the ‘Update’ section with its sources.
Phone Calls
Having visited Moscow and secured the release of Marc Fogel, a US school teacher who made the error of traveling in Russia carrying Marijuana, Steve Witkoff appears to have replaced Gen. Kellogg as US President Trump's representative for discussions to end the NATO war versus Russia. Having met returned Fogel, Trump ended the 3 year Democrat blockade on US-Russian Presidential contact via an almost 1.5 hour phone call with Russian Federation President Putin.
Antiwar used Trump's posting to TruthSocial [300 words] and TASS' report [90 words] as sources for its article summarizing the important discussion.
The Kremlin readout [198 words] declared 6 topics were covered:
prisoner exchange
Ukraine settlement
Middle east settlement
Iran's nuclear program
bilateral economic relations
continued contact via visiting officials, personal discussions and in person meetings
Half an hour after the Kremlin published its "readout" of the call, Reuters' issued a short article [182 words], which omitted the Iranian nuclear program topic and left 'economic' out of bilateral relations.
Antiwar, from Trump's social media posting, informed us of Trump's designated personnel to handle the "immediate" negotiations: "Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor John Ratcliffe, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff". It was Dave DeCamp who noted that:
Missing from his list was Ret. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who Trump [had] appointed as the envoy to the conflict." and that Trump thanked Putin for Fogel's release.
Reuters' blamed the lack of Presidential contact over the last 3 years on Russia with:
Putin last spoke to a sitting U.S. president in February 2022 when he had a call with Joe Biden shortly before ordering thousands of troops into Ukraine.
The wire service concluded by advertising Trump's old book, and telling us that they dont know things:
Trump, author of the 1987 book "Trump: the Art of the Deal", has repeatedly said he wants to end the war and that he will meet Putin to discuss it, though the date or venue for a summit is still not publicly known.
It should be clear why this newsletter regularly uses Antiwar as a source, and only ever quotes Reuters when they deserve damnation for their deceit.
Giddy up!
On the day of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group [UDCG] meeting, before it had concluded, Reuters issued "Ukraine says arms deliveries, joint projects on agenda for allies' meeting". The short article puts words in Ukrainian Defence Minister Umerovs's mouth and repeats the "full-scale invasion" narrative. Its only useful information was the confirmation that "The meeting will be chaired by British defence minister John Healey".
Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on the content of the meeting with "Hegseth stuns allies with blunt speech that rules out NATO membership for Ukraine".
The new US Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, has used his first appearance at a Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting in Brussels to deliver an uncompromising assessment of the war in Ukraine and to inform the other members of the NATO alliance that US global priorities had shifted away from Europe.
[The 'alliance' link to US Dept of Defense's transcript of Hegseth's introductory remarks is reproduced from Novaya — credit to them for including it]
Reuters’ article waits until the 9th paragraph, after wandering into a historical summary, to mention the killer quote, and even prefixes it with a "but":
But, he said, "the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement".
[Emphasis mine.]
Antiwar captured the essence, as it so reliably does, in its title: "Hegseth Says No NATO Membership for Ukraine, Return to Pre-2014 Borders 'Unrealistic'".
The meeting left the UDCG powerless. Hegseth declared that the US is essentially out. Over to you Europe! This is especially humorous because despite Hegseth's important message to the European states' Defense Ministers of buying weapons from the US to the tune of 5% of GDP, it is like Trump's other ideas — plainly impossible.
Not only can Europe not afford that degree of spending, with just Germany's economy defeating the idea, but US weapons manufacturers already have a backlog of orders to fill the US inventory. The UDCG is bust, and they know it.
Hegseth removed the deceptions which have fueled the war.
Congrats, British Defense Minister Healey! What happened to Lammy?
Intelligence
In tangentially related news, Tulsi Gabbard was confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by a party-line vote, except "to the last Ukrainian" and "they have $2 trillion in minerals" Senate Leader and Christian Zionist, Lindsey Graham.
Indonesia
Back at Antiwar and its associated publication for the Libertarian Institute, Ted Snider reminded us that Indonesia joined BRICS over a month ago. It was a largely ignored "Huge Deal". This newsletter noted the progress towards membership of both sides of the Straights of Malacca last year.
Update 2025-02-14
Yves Smith, republished at N.S. Baldwin's "Understanding Russia", wrote that:
These developments will deliver a severe blow to what is left of Ukraine morale, most importantly among its military
She was proven correct, when Dima from Military Summary reported that the 79th Air Mobile Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) published a note reporting that command issued a decree banning mobile phones on the front line in order to preserve morale. The decree banned all internet access by soldiers.
The desperate state of morale for the AFU will worsen which will create more opportunities for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) to identify sections of weak defense as they probe the thousand mile front. One can expect the AFRF to accept the easiest routes which will increase their territorial hold. The degredation of morale will also minimize Russian casualties, further elevating Russia’s relative inflicted casualty ratio over the AFU.
The situation is going from bad to intollerable for the AFU.
Yves Smith's first thoughts on US-Russia talks to end the Ukraine war; Naked Capitalism; Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia; 2025-02-13
Cold War II❄️Zelensky Breaks The Deal🚫🤝Russians Surround The Ukrainians🔄 Military Summary 2025.02.13; Military Summary; Military Summary; 2025-02-13
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Sources
Trump Speaks With Putin, Says Talks To End Ukraine War Will Start 'Immediately'; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-02-12
Trump Tells Ukrainian War Party That The Game Is Up; b.; Moon of Alabama; 2025-02-12
Hegseth Replaces Deception with Reality; Glenn Diesen; Glenn's Substack; 2025-02-13
Washington Drops Ukraine, Israel Backs Down On Hamas Demands; Caitlin Johnston; Caitlin's Newsletter; 2025-02-13
Trump Tells Ukraine and NATO: You're Fired!; Larry C. Johnson; SONAR21; 2025-02-12
"I think it is safe to say that today marked the start of the end of the war in Ukraine."
I’ll up you one, Larry. It was the deployment of the glide modified FAB bombs used in the destruction of the cover for the capture and then route of Avdiivka, though we didn’t know it at the time.
"I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin ...", @realDonaldTrump, Truth Social, 2025-02-13 03:53 [assumed US/EST] [UTC-5]
Putin, Trump speak over phone - Kremlin - Russian Politics & Diplomacy; N/A; TASS; 2025-02-12 17:06 MSK
Telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump; Kremlin; Kremlin; 2025-02-12 20:00 [MSK] [UTC+3]
Putin invited Trump to Moscow to discuss Ukraine, Kremlin says; Reuters; Archive.today; 2025-02-12 17:29 UTC [20:29 MSK]
US schoolteacher Marc Fogel released by Russia, White House says; Al Jazeera; Al Jazeera; 2025-2-12
Ukraine says arms deliveries, joint projects on agenda for allies' meeting; Reuters; Archive.today; 2025-02-12
Zelensky: Europe Can't Guarantee Ukraine's Security Without the US; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-02-11
Hegseth stuns allies with blunt speech that rules out NATO membership for Ukraine; Novaya Gazeta Europe; 2025-02-12
Opening Remarks by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at Ukraine Defense Contact Group (As Delivered), Hegeseth, US Dept. of Defense, 2025-02-12
US defense chief Hegseth says return to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders not realistic; Reuters; Archive.today; 2025-02-12
Hegseth Says No NATO Membership for Ukraine, Return to Pre-2014 Borders 'Unrealistic'; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-02-12
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Trump's Director of National Intelligence; Aaron Sobczak; Responsible Statecraft; 2025-02-12
Indonesia Joining BRICS is a Huge Deal; Ted Snider; The Libertarian Institute; 2025-02-11
Outside of the Echo Chamber; YesXorNo; 2024-11-22
Malacca; YesXorNo; 2024-07-30
Copyleft: CC0
The Ukrainian Nationalist Diaspora, dominant in Canadian, British and Australian politics, perhaps, are not so dominant in US politics it would seem.
They will not like this.
Good summary, although I would dig a bit deeper here and NOT take this at face value:
"....Asked later on Tuesday whether the US had given up anything for Fogel’s release, Trump said “not much”, without elaborating...."
First of all, understand that the US does not give a fig about its citizen abroad, and as a rule does not negotiate for them....except for the spies (un-uniformed military) and the uniformed military.
There is NO way that Trump went to negotiate about this guy and he didnt matter. They gave up something for him, and the scale of that something would tip off who exactly Fogel is.
Which is why the counterweight that sealed the the deal is scarce infom. Find out who was exchanged for him, who that person REALLY is for the Russians, and that tells you how much Fogel mattered to the US. Fogel aint no mere schoolteacher.