Taking Stock of NATO's Defeat

Phase one failed. Phase two is delayed.

Published: 2025-03-11

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During the first half of the NATO-Russia Ukraine proxy war one conceptualization offered for its role in US geostrategy was as part one of its confrontation with China. This was based on US national defense strategy documents which clearly identified China is the biggest threat to US hegemony. The strategy was to use the proxy war to "weaken Russia", exactly as former US Secretary of Defense Austin declared, so that when the US moved on to part 2, destabilizing China, Russia would be ineffective in supporting its strategic partner.

The US was using its European NATO "partners" in its efforts to overthrow Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin via the proxy war. In parallel, the US was constructing new alliance partnership structures in the "Indo-Pacific". AUKUS, a strange beast of Australia and Britain with the US, was one. Another was the Quad, of Australia, India, Japan and the US. More important was a nameless bilateral partnership with the Philippines where the US has been building up logistics support for operations in nearby Taiwan.

But, they failed to topple Putin. The war became unwinnable. Ukraine's corrupt government was selling arms onto the black market and failing the impossible task of replacing their losses against Russia. With Russia causing more than 5 Ukrainian casualties for every one of its own and Russia having 4 times the population from which to draw, how could Ukraine ever achieve this? To make matters worse, Russia was outproducing NATO for all important armaments by 4 to 1. New NATO Secretary Rutte even admitted this! The US drained its armories to dangerously low levels, as had its NATO partners in war. Winkin', Blinkin' and Nod (the outgoing Biden administration) attempted to "Trump-proof" the future of the war with billions of dollars of tax payer gifts to the US military industrial complex, but the war was lost.

"Peacemaker" Trump had no option but to cut US losses and stop wasting defense production on a lost cause. The billions Biden spent on armament contracts will be fulfilled. Trump just stopped them being delivered to Ukraine. Instead, they will refill US stockpiles from where they can be directed at China. This is a US Policy Continuity with Trumpian Characteristics, to merge a Brian Berletic phrase with a Chinese naming style. Policy Continuity is the building. Trumpian Characteristics is the store front display.

US President Trump is making changes, but within boundaries. Just as there is an "Overton Window" in allowable discussion, so too are there limited choices in US foreign policy direction. That direction is the Pacific, as Hegseth informed Europe. From a US perspective, either the Europeans, including the Ukrainians, get on board with settling this war or the US will just leave Europe in an awful mess and let them sort it out (notwithstanding the ongoing struggle in Ukraine between the Wests' military intelligence agencies).

Just how messy this is can be seen from the rhetoric. Britain and France, with their new entente will put troops in Ukraine, so long as the US defends those troops, said they after the US had clearly said it wont. Everybody is speaking of Ukrainian security and nobody is speaking of Russian security. A negotiation to end a war cannot be achieved without both sides being assured of a security. If the Europeans refuse to voice the dual security of a peace, they wont get one. Instead, they'll get the other outcome.

This is how uncoordinated, or messy, Europe's messaging is. If Europe wants a settlement to this conflict, they have a limited time before the Trump gives up on them. Then — horror or horrors! — they'll need to speak with Russia.

Meanwhile, Europe is returning to its old rivalries as Britain, France, Germany and Poland struggle to claim "Protector of Europe" status as they all start an arms race with each other, theoretically against Russia. The result will bankrupt Europe. Their blocking of a negotiation to end the war will result in a Ukrainian surrender. This will then be used as a narrative to buttress the arms race. This is the chaos towards which these clowns are taking Europe.

Summarizing, the US has depleted armories and weakened allies who are squabbling amongst themselves dealing with a border issue which they created. The US is in a far weaker position to take on China. It needs time.

So, the road ahead looks like the US using taxes to fund a military build up in the Pacific to be used after it has created Ukraine 2.0 in Taiwan.

Here's some advice for the Taiwanese. Migrate to China and take your semiconductor fabrication tech with you. Let the US create the war, which will destroy Taiwan. Then move back and rebuild.

Better advice is for the Filipinos. Stop the US using your nation as a base for US military facilities. Then you wont get hammered by the Chinese when the war in Taiwan breaks out, because the war wont happen. Same advice for Japan. Push the US back to its "Western hemisphere", and you can all enjoy the resurgence of Asia.

The European and US half millennium of colonisation is crumbling economically because they’re spending money on overpriced weapons rather than infrastructure, manufacturing, housing and education.

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Sources

Perfidious Albion; Scott Ritter; Scott Ritter Extra; 2025-03-10

Europe faces a MAGA 'vibe-shift’ as Trump moves to his primordial objective – The Global Reset; Alastair Crooke; The Unz Review; 2025-03-11

Russia produces in three months what the whole of NATO produces in a year, said Alliance Secretary General Mark Rutte; News Pravda (Netherlands); 2025-01-13

AUSUK : A Trilateral Pantomime and a Dance Down History; YesXorNo; 2021-09-17

Jumping Ship into the Calmer Waters of Columbia; YesXorNo; 2024-03-12

Alastair Crooke : European Elites In Trouble; Judge Napolitano interviews Crooke; Judging Freedom; 2025-03-10

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