Tea for Two to a Cha Cha Rhythm, Pick Your Partner
Ukraine: comparing analyses, and the Middle East: watching re-alignments
[Image: a composite by the author of Col. Macgregor, conflicted Kirby and Military Summary channel’s Dima.]
Published: 2023-05-03
Updated 2023-05-08: Syria has been invited back in to the Arab League and is now a full member. Two sources are added to document this.
Ukraine
Both the video interview with Col. Douglas Macgregor and Dima's solo video cover the 2023-04-30 extensive missile strikes by the Russian military against Ukrainian military targets and the drone attack on the fuel storage facilities at Sevestopol in Crimea.
The reason I highlight these is to examine the overlap and differences in their analyses. Dima is a Belarussian. Douglas is a former military officer of the USA. They are largely in agreement on the state of affairs in Ukraine, which is interesting in itself. Neither have fallen for the propaganda being issued by either side's media or state institutions.
A drone attack by Ukraine damaged a large fuel storage tank in Sevastopol, Crimea creating a worst level tier-4 fire. The billowing black smoke made for great images to be propagandized by western narrative managers as some great success for the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine).
Both of our commentators agreed that damage was fairly irrelevant. Col. Macgregor states why. The fuel stored there has no effect on troop movements on the contact line, and most importantly the refinery is still operating. Dima made a prediction that more attacks were likely to happen during the night following the attack in broad daylight. We now know that did not happen. No criticism there, it seemed likely.
In Dima's previous daily video he had stated why he believes that Sevastopol is such an important target. Its the Navy, dummy. The Russian Navy can move though the Kerch Straight and sit off the coast of Zaparozhe and Donetsk and provide serious firepower during any upcoming offensive in which the Ukrainian military push through the defenses to try to sever the "land bridge" between Donetsk and Kherson/Crimea. Its an interesting idea, and makes a lot of sense. I've no idea what the range is on the larger calliber Russian Naval guns, or their accuracy. I mention this only because it is an interesting idea. The fuel tank attack was used largely for propaganda, but attacks against the Sevastopol Naval base are ongoing. There must be reason for this, and Dima suggests one. It may well be wrong, but it is food for thought, which I enjoy.
As for the large scale missile attack, both Dima and Douglas agree on the damage inflicted. Both acknowledge the significance of the destruction of ammunition depots, large numbers of troops and the destruction of AFU brigade level command headquarters, and recent destruction of Ukrainian air defense systems, particularly S-300 and the Gepard systems which were meant to provide low level air defense cover for them. The S-300s cannot be replaced. Resupply of air defense as German Iris-T's or USA's Patriot's have been few and far between. Ukraine does not have the air defense systems to protect its frontline troops, as evidenced by Russia's increased use of its airforce and glide bombs.
Where they differ slightly is the emphasis they place in their analysis. Dima sees the newly formed brigades coming from the north and suggests that attacking them on mass, including command centers is a part of the strategy. However, he emphasizes logistics. The town hit, where these forces were concentrated, is one of two key railway junctions to supply southern Ukraine, and the key junction to supply the center, on the Donetsk front. He uses the live UA Map to show where force concentrations behind the contact line are, or are likely to be, and traces the railway lines back to show their convergence in Pavlohrad, the city attacked. The concentration of valuable targets, railway infrastructure, troops, armored vehicles and command HQs seem to have motivated the attacks.
Macgregor's analysis points to the changes over time in Russian targeting for its missile strikes. He describes the recent focus on AFU troop concentrations, command headquarters and ammunition depots rather than specifically focusing on logistics. This is a little strange, in that an old military sayings is that tacticians focus on weapons systems and troops whilst strategists focus on logistics. I'm being a little disingenuous here. Macgregor's real focus is not on the 1 000 odd troop losses, but that of the officers among them during the attacks on the 9 command HQs. The AFU are not only running out of trained soldiers, but also trained officers. These new losses will debilitate the AFU as lesser trained officers replace those lost. This is a strategic analysis of the ongoing reduction in quality of the AFU's command. Macgregor also highlights that Russia must have extremely good intelligence or “ISR” (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaisance) capabilities
During the middle to later parts of his interview with Gardner, Macgregor continues with strategic and military/political commentary of which he has quite some expertise. Of course, Dima stays focussed on developments on the ground for he lacks that expertise. This is good. Each is providing informed commentary within areas where they are capable. As mentioned, Dima makes the odd wander into speculation, but he always declares that as such when he is doing so. From this we are prompted the think for ourselves.
Another topic which Macgregor raises is that of Wagner PMC leader Prigozhin. He repeats speculation that Prigozhin may wish to pursue a political career when hostilities cease. Macgregor mentions the firing of the Russian General in charge of logistics. One of Prigozhin's recent complaints has been a lack of ammunition, which is a complaint about logistics. Your author believes that this is the core of Prigozhin's beef, whether he has political aspirations or not. There is a reason for this. Russia's political leadership would like the completion of the capture of the town soon to be known solely as Artyomovsk before May 9th when Russia celebrates is victory in the Great Patriotic War (Russia's defeat of Nazi Germany). Its tough to do that if you don't have the ammunition.
The two videos combined show the level of considered, informed commentary which is available to those wishing to understand what is happening in the conflict. Compare this analysis and detail with the stupidity coming out of the mouth of USA National Security Council spokesman Kirby telling us that the Russian military has lost 100 000 killed or wounded during the now almost complete capture of Bakhut/Artyomovsk and how the town is strategically irrelevant. He is lying and we know it. Reverse the numbers and ask yourself why Ukraine has thrown so many troops into this "meat grinder"? I almost feel sorry for mendacious Kirby.
The Middle East
The recent re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran via the diplomatic efforts of Russia and then China were quite a surprise to many an analyst. The repercussions of that change continue with developments occuring day by day.
A Saudi flagged ship recently evacuated 1 900 people from Sudan, which included 65 Iranians. This is obviously a humanitarian mission and the Iranians were only a small component of those assisted. It does, however, demonstrate a continued calming of relations between the two regional powers.
Jordan has been playing a role to facilitate dialogue between Arab nations who seem to be rejecting the divide and rule policies imposed upon them by the USA and Israel. A recent statement was issued by the Foreign Ministers of Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Egypt following a meeting in Amman. The meeting was to discuss re-admission of Syria into the Arab League. The statement did not mention this but called for all of Syrian's territory to be reclaimed and be governed from Damascus. The statement offers support but does not mention the Arab League which hints that universal agreement could not be reached. The next meeting of the League will be in Riyadh on May 19th and the question is what level of Syrian representation to invite?
The fact that Egypt was represented in Amman is interesting. Egypt has been keeping a very low profile for some time. It is pleasing to see Egypt involved in these discussions. Half a decade ago, Egypt and Syria were close allies in the pan-Arab movement when Egypt was led by Gamal Abdel Nasser. Below is a video (see Sources) by the late veteran Middle East correspondent for the Danish naitonal broadcaster, DR (Danmark's Radio), Ole Sippel, which has only recently been published. It provides a window in time to an earlier era and displays both the skill of the journalist and the intelligence of Nasser.
[Image: A frame from the 1970 interview of Egyptian President Nasser by DR’s Ole Sippel.]
A recent meeting in Moscow between the defence and intelligence leaders from Iran, Turkey and Syria was a continuation of Russia's efforts to normalize relations among the neighbours. The challenging topic is the "Kurdish Problem", and problem it is. The poor Kurds have a fractured political representation and have done themselves no favours by running insurgent type operations against Turkiye, having fought with insurgents against Syria and been the driving force behind recent protests in Iran which became violent, including targetted killing of Iranian police. The meeting was described as 'constructive' though no agreed policy was announced.
An even stranger turn in recent events was Saudi Arabia's expressed desire to re-establish diplomatic communications with the political arm of Hezbollah. This must infuriate both Israel and the USA, both of which have declared Hezbollah as a "terrorist organisation". This, of course, is because Hezbollah defeated Isreal in their aggresion against Lebanon in 2006 and continues to support the oppressed and occupied indigenous palestinian people within the modern state of Israel.
Every week or two Israel attacks Syria with impunity. The most recent Israeli targets have been airports in Syria, including the international airport of Damascus. The latest illegal act of war by Israel against Syria was an attack on the Allepo airport. These internationally illegal (not sanctioned by the U.N. Security Council) attacks by Israel against the territory of Syria have been going on for years. This places Israel alongside the USA who have un-invited, and thus invading, troops at the two most important crossing points between Iraq and Syria, in the north east of Syria and at Al Tanf in the south. The statement issued following the meeting in Amman indicates a growing Arab objection to these occupying foreign forces in Syria.
Just for fun a bi-partisan bill has been introduced to the USA Congress to make the 1996 sanctions against Iran permanent, thus allieviating USA lawmakers from having to go through the trouble of re-issuing them. The sanctions, as we all know, affect the poor in the targeted nation, and not the leadership which is the stated purpose. This proposed conversion to permanency is the USA Congress’ way of informing their electorate that they understand the principle that taking the same action again and again and expecting a different response indicates stupidity.
Meanwhile, the pieces on the board in the Middle East are moving as old animosities are being put aside. One can only hope for increased cooperation and a reduction in violence.
Indeed, a resolution of the Yemen war is on the cards among all of these other changes.
Sources
Saudi-flagged ship evacuates over 1,900 people from conflict-ridden Sudan to Jeddah, staff, Al Arabiya, 2023-04-29
Arab Ministers Call for Syria to Regain Control of Its Territory, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-01
Jordan to host talks on Syria's return to Arab League, Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Reuters, 2023-04-30
Report: Saudi Arabia seeks dialogue with Lebanese Hezbollah movement following détente with Iran, staff, PressTV, 2023-05-01
Withdrawal of Turkish Troops from Syria Discussed in Moscow Talks, Dave DeCamp, Anitwar, 2023-04-25
Israeli Airstrikes Again Target Syria’s Aleppo Airport, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-01
Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Make Law Authorizing Iran Sanctions Permanent, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-01
The United States Gets A Major Black Eye in the Middle East Courtesy of the Arab League, Larry Johnson, his website, 2023-05-07
Arab League Votes to Readmit Syria, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-07
Massive Missile Strike. The Ukrainians Has Ammo Starvation. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.05.01, Dima, Military Summary channel, 2023-05-01
Putin's Bloody Missile Attack Is Horrifying | Col. Douglas Macgregor, Gardner interview Col. Macgregor, Stephen Gardner, 2023-05-01
1970 Interview with Gamal Abdel Nasser, 2nd president of Egypt, Ole Sipple interviews Nasser in 1970, Middle East journalist Ole Sippel in memoriam, uploaded 2022-11-06
Do not be disuaded by the very short introduction in Danish. The interview is in English.
Culture
Tea for Two (Vincent Youmans) Cha Cha Piano by Sangah Noona, Sangah Noona, her youtube channel, uploaded 2022-05-09
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