The "Spring" Counteroffensive has begun in Ukraine

This article will be updated over time to add further sourcing

Published: 2023-06-06

Updates

• 2023-06-06: Added NYT, WaPo and BBC coverage.

• 2023-06-07: Added Military Summary (3 videos), Col Macgregor on Judging Freedom and a few references to “the dam” (MoA and Tucker). Began the article proper with a summary of the first four days of the “operation” counting June 4th as the first day.

• 2023-06-20: MoA provides a picture of the grim reality. The fact that the MSM have largely stopped talking about it says even more. Reports from the BBC and NYT are included, as are interviews with Johnson (16th) and Davis (19th) from Judging Freedom. If you like video and you want an updated picture, watch the Davis interview.

• 2023-06-23: End of Updates. The offensive has been an abject failure.

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Preface

Reports from Antiwar (quoting Russian officials), MoonOfAlabama and a discussion at The Duran signal that the long awaited counter offensive has begun along the frontlines in eastern Ukraine.

Independent media, this commentator included, expect that lots of people will die though more Ukrainian than Russia, and that much military hardware gifted to Ukraine will be destroyed. Of course, civilian casualties will factor, and if history is to be a guide the peoples of the Donbas will bear the brunt of that. The expected outcome is to be a serious defeat for Ukraine. How serious that is will depend on how much machinery and how many soldiers they throw into the maw of the well defended positions of the Russian armed forces. Us skeptical commentators may well be proven to be wrong.

The non-US/NATO “rest of the world”, and even some European nations, Hungary in particular, have been calling for a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement for some months to avoid this completely unnecessary waste of human life. The USA has resolutely rejected this idea consistently, with their chief diplomat Secretary of State Blinken stating that explicitly only days ago.

The Sources section to this article will be updated over the coming days, with some commentary.

Battles

4th to 7th

These sections are summaries of the videos posted by Dima from Military Summary (see below for some of them).

On the 4th, the “first” part of the attack was on a bridgehead in Zaparozhe. Three Ukrainian motorized regiments attacked. A regiment has 200 soldiers, and a motorized one also 20 armored vehicles, a combination of armored personnel carriers/infrantry fighting vehicles and tanks. The central attack failed. Both of the east and west flanks were successful, but took damage. Russian forces withdrew. Their minefields delivered much of the damage. The central attack failed due to terrain; water obstacles, which slowed them and thus artillery or other ranged attacks twarted their progress.

By the 6th much of the territory re-taken by Ukraine was back in Russian hands and Ukraine had lost 1 500+ soldiers and 28 tanks and 109 infantry fighting vehicles.

Dima describes that only some upper sections of the dam were destroyed which created uncontrolled flooding which gives Russia and advantage downstream for it has flooded areas under Ukrainian control. Ukraine hastily withdrew (rescued) soldiers from islands along the rivers lower reaches as they became flooded. At the lowest reaches of the river, it was territory held by Russia which was flooded forcing them to withdraw to higher ground. It seems that Russia got a slight advantage on the trade of land reliquished. In my opinion this does not really matter. What matters is that the flooding essentially prevents this long section of the front being used by either side for quite some time. If this “counter-offensive” continues, then this area will be excluded from direct operations allowing a greater concentration in both offense and defense at other points along the line of contact.

By the 7th, Dima reports that Russia tallies the Ukrainian dead at 3 715 (killed and wounded combined, believes Dima). Russia’s tally of lost Ukrainian equipment is at 52 tanks and 207 fighting vehicles, 134 regular vehicles and 48 artillery pieces. Russia also reports downing a helicopter and an SU-25 and and SU-27.

Dima informs his audience that Russia reported their losses at 220 wounded and 71 killed. This produces a 1:52 ratio, which is very difficult to believe. Lets just say that there is quite a bit of “fog of war” here.

Col. Macgregor quotes very similiar numbers in general with only minor differences on some hardware (helicopters 2, tanks 48), repeating the close to loss of a battalion (4 000 soldiers).

Dima concludes that the 7th (day 4 by his counting) was essentially a quiet day. The flooding because of the dam damage took any wind out of Ukraine’s offensive. One expects that forces are being redeployed. There were minor clashes in areas that have been contested for many months, but this is really just background noise.

As for who damaged the dam, Dima offers no suggestion and Macgregor suggests that it may well have just been a fault due to earlier damage, and not a deliberate action. Although this may seem strange, given that neither side benefited strongly, and really all that happened was the denial of some of the front line and a pause in operations, this is plausible.

Quite unsurprisingly Col. Macgregor’s non-military commentary is forceful and realistic. At the end he provides his assessment of the US’s role in WWII in Europe and provides a powerful argument for how essential the US was in enabling Russia’s advance during operation Bagration.

Day 5

Doctorow reports that “Russian armed forces spokesman General Konashenkov announced that the results of the latest day of battle were another 750 dead Ukrainians”.

Dima reports that Ukraine launched attacks at two points on the Zaporozhe line. The first, close to the Dniper river was ineffective. It may have been a feignt or recon-in-force. The main attack was to the west of there with mulitple mechanized units. This forced Russia to deploy reserves. Ukraine had some succeess. They launched a extended HIMARS barrage against rear positions, but these were negated by missile defense.

In Kherson oblast, Russia identified and destroyed an IRIS-T (German) missile/air defense system.

To the north of Bahkmut/Artyomovsk Ukraine succeed in advancing to a strong position of a forest line which sits adjacent to a railway line along which they could further their advance.

A network of extensive tunnels between Bakhmut and the main town to its west, Chasiv Yar, was shown by Russia. This explained the continued resistance of the western area of Bakhmut while Russia controlled the surface resupply routes.

Dima reports that a NATO meeting is scheduled for June 20th somewhere in the Baltic states. Although admission of Ukraine to NATO would be against all of NATO’s established process for admission of a member state, Dima speculates that a collection of NATO states a likely to form a corps of soldiers to assist Ukraine. This would be a dramatic escalation were it to eventuate. It would also completely undermine the stated purpose of the EU; to prevent war in Europe.

Sources

On The Failure Of The Ukrainian Counterattack, b, Moon Of Alabama, 2023-06-16

Ukraine war: BBC on the front line as Ukraine attacks Russian trenches, Quentin Sommerville, BBC, 2023-06-19

Digging Up Old Graves to Make Room for Newly Fallen Soldiers, Megan Specia (photos by Brendan Hoffman), New York Times, 2023-06-19

Ukraine’s Offensive： What’s Happened, What's Next？ Col Daniel Davis, Napolitano interviews Davis, Judging Freedom, 2023-06-19

NATO's Bad Plan & the Ukrainian Offensive - LARRY JOHNSON fmr CIA, Napolitano interviews Johnson, Judging Freedom, 2023-06-16

Zelensky will be murdered by his military command, Gilbert Doctorow, his website, 2023-06-08

Russia Says Ukraine Launched a 'Large-Scale Offensive', Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-06-04

Ukraine Launches Its Counterattack, b, Moon Of Alabama, 2023-06-05

Nova Kakhova Dam Breach - Updated (12:15 UTC), b., Moon Of Alabama, 2023-06-06

Tucker Carlson on Twitter (subject is the destruction of the Nova Kakhova dam), Tucker Carlson, Twitter, 2023-06-07

Ukraine Yields to International Pressure and Launches Ill-Fated Offensive, Larry Johnson, his website, 2023-06-06

Ukraine's Offensive Begins： Burning NATO Equipment vs. Layered Russian Defenses, Brian Berletic, The New Atlas, 2023-06-10

Dam Destroyed ⧸ What is the Russian's Strategy Col Doug Macgregor, Napolitano interviews Macgregor, Judging Freedom, 2023-06-06

Opening act of Ukraine's big offensive, Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris, The Duran, 2023-06-05

Military Summary

The Ukrainian Defeat | The Dam. Military Summary And Analysis For 2023.06.06, Dima, Military Summary, 2023-06-06

Donbass Zugzwang | The Dam That Thwarted All Plans. Military Summary And Analysis For 2023.06.06, Dima, Military Summary, 2023-06-06

Loud Calm After Battle. Military Summary And Analysis For 2023.06.07, Dima, Military Summary, 2023-06-07

Donbass Zugzwang | Games Of Gerasimov. The Destruction Continues. Military Summary For 2023.06.07, Dima, Military Summary, 2023-06-07

The Russians Repulsed All Attacks And Continue to Defend. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.06.08, Dima, Military Summary, 2023-06-08

MSM Coverage

U.S. Officials See Signs of a Counteroffensive in Ukraine, Staff, New York Times, 2023-06-05

Ukraine live briefing: Ukrainian forces claim advances along front line; Russia says it repelled attack in Donetsk, Isobel Koshiw et al., The Washington Post, 2023-06-05

Ukraine war: 'Offensive actions' under way in east, Kyiv says, Emily McGarvey in London & James Waterhouse in Kyiv, BBC, 2023-06-05

Russia says it thwarted major attack in Ukraine but lost some ground, Pavel Polityuk, Reuters, 2023-06-05

Russia says it thwarted major attack in Ukraine but lost some ground, Pavel Polityuk, Reuters, 2023-06-05

Culture

A repeat.

Machine Gun, by The Jimi Hendrix Experience. Don’t watch the cheesy footage. Just listen.

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