[Image: a frame from Patrick Lancaster’s video covering the voting processes for the referenda in eastern and southern Ukraine. A woman casts her vote in a school employed as a voting location.]
Publication date: 2022-09-30
Update 2022-10-02: A counter source has been added from Criag Murray.
Update 2022-10-05: An article by Scott Ritter is added to sources.
Update 2022-10-12: An interview with Vanessa Beeley and Tony Kevin is added.
A reading of this article is available.
Tension
The conflict in Ukraine exposes an inherent tension in the UN Charter. Russian Federation (RF) Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov highlighted this during a press conference after his recent speech at the UN General Assembly.
The tension is between the integrity of sovereign national governments and the ability of collections of citizens to declare their own independence, and thus create a new government. This potentially carves off territory from a "sovereign integral" government to then be governed by a new "sovereign integral" government.
Introduction: A Recap
The unelected, coup derivative government installed in Kiev, Ukraine in 2014 outlawed the teaching of Russian in Ukrainian schools as a component of its nationalist agenda. Ukraine, as a state, merged a collection of ethnicities with differing cultural histories.
The eastern and southern provinces speak Russian and have a Russian cultural background. Western Ukraine has closer ties to Poland, Hungary and other neighbouring territories. Within this western group exist a small fraction which lionizes Stephan Bandera. Bandera collaborated with Nazi occupiers during WW II and assisted in the collective murder of many Ukrainians according to Nazi practice (homosexuals, the infirm, Communists, Jews etc.).
The anti-Russian policies of the coup installed government are a direct result of the influence of these Bandera worshiping nationalist idealogues. They, in turn, were supported by both foreign backers (USA/NATO) and local oligarchs (Kolomoisky and others). This is a classic "colour revolution" play. The play relies on inflaming local division and the support of local influencers.
A sequence of events, including the succession of Crimea and the burning alive of protesters in the Odessa Trades Union Building induced Russian speaking and ethic communities in the Donbas (Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts) to resist the new regime in Kiev. Kiev launched a civil war against them. In response, the two oblasts resisted and held referenda. The results allowed them to declare their independence. They implored Russia to incorporate them into its federation. Russia demurred. She was not ready (the USA was funding a war in Syria, amongst other activities).
The process which the federation pursued eventuated in the Minsk II accords, universally approved by the UN Security council in 2015. These would have maintained the territorial integrity of Ukraine (excepting Crimea) and provided limited autonomy to the two oblasts if an update to the Ukrainian constitution was made. The newly installed government, and those that followed, resisted engagement in the Minsk accords and continued the civil war against the Donbas. By 2022 the eight year long civil war had killed over 13 000 Ukrainians, mostly those in Donbas. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) had incorporated into its ranks brigades composed of these Bandera worshiping Nazis, replete with body tatoos of Nazi regalia and flying insignia thereof.
The issue of these Nazi battalions was widely reported in western media during the 2014 to 2016 period. It was not a secret. It is not a secret. To this day, these elements of the AFU refer to the Russian ethnic peoples of Donbas as "Orcs". This is the level of revulsion delivered at the peoples of Donbas by their (former) countrymen. This explains their resistance and desire for independence.
Precedents
Three events in recent history serve as a useful background to the current political and geopolitical struggle in eastern and southern Ukraine: the Syrian proxy war, the Catalan independence effort and the declaration of the independence of Kosovo.
The armed conflict by radical islamist insurgents against the Syrian government was supported by western nations and Saudi Arabia. The CIA code name for the funding, arming and training of these insurgent forces was Operation Timber Sycamore. To that point, around 2016, Sycamore was the highest funded CIA operation, at around 14 billion USD. The Syrian government with support from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah resisted this foreign (USA, UK, France, Saudia Arabia, Turkey and others) supported insurgency.
A non-violent insurgency was organised by the Spanish Catalan. Catalonia, the most industrious of the Spanish provinces, became restive due to continued policies of the Spanish government which denied acknowledgement of their contribution to the nation, and suppressed their will. Rallies of hundreds of thousands of people were held. A referendum was organised by the local government. The Catalan peoples’ desire to express their will was denied by the European Union. Not only was the referendum's legitimacy denied, but elected officials who had facilitated it were arrested.
The 1999 war in Yugoslavia resulted in the country being split into multiple parts. One of those parts was Kosovo, a part of Serbia. Kosovo's creation was not by popular referendum, for none was held. It was by decree from external powers. The USA used its influence to create the government and pressured others to recognize it. Kosovo is 20 years later still not a member of the United Nations.
These three examples show us a failure of foreign supported armed struggle to change a government, the failure of a non-violent independence movement denied by regional suppression and the partial success of a new government created by foreign powers without a local mandate.
They serve as examples of play within the tension contained in the UN charter.
Ukraine Separatist Referenda
[Image: RT news showing statistics for participation in the referenda in Donetsk and Lugansk.]
The peoples of the Donbas have resisted the imposition of policies and reprisals by a central government which views them as "Orcs". They and their civilian infrastructure have been attacked for eight long years by the orc hating Kiev government. It took eight years for Russia to accept their declaration of independence. These two former Ukrainian oblasts have just held referenda asking their people if they wish to join the Russian Federation.
Encroachments on Russia's sphere of influence have been relentless. Since the dissolution of the USSR NATO has, contrary to promise, expanded not just eastward to Russia's borders, but also northward through the Caucasus. The constant "colour revolutions" are so common that at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization Heads of Government meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Chinese President Xi warned other members of the organisation to beware of their continued imminent likelihood.
A referendum for sovereignty or independence is the polar opposite of a colour revolution. It is an open invite for people to declare their wishes rather than a covert mechanism to inspire revolt. That the USA uses the later rather than supporting the former displays its tactics. Or, more bluntly, the CIA’s operations wing are riding roughshod over the State Department.
The results from the (former) Ukrainian oblast referenda have been announced. The Donbas republics of Donetsk and Lugansk merely asked their citizens if they wished to join the Russian Federation. In Kherson and Zaporizhzhia the question was “Are you in favor of the region leaving Ukraine, creating an independent state, and joining the Russian Federation?” The lowest "yes" vote total across the four regions was 87%.
Just as in Crimea, the results were completely predictable. This explains why the legitimacy of the referenda were immediately called into question by western media. They are 'sham" referenda, say the west.
Hang on. "Defenders of Democracy" declare that holding a plebacite is a 'sham'? Yes people, the golden west declares voting illegitimate.
The problem they have is whether international observers are present and publish their findings on the conduct of the refenda (see sources for a series of videos taken across three of the oblasts which document the voting process). Accordingly, numerous vote observers from European countries have been pressured by their governments.
That some of them are listed on a Ukrainian kill list remains unmentioned. A European MEP has even called for sanctions against an election observer.
Not only is voting illegitimate, vote observation is a crime.
I am not writing a dystopian novel. This is reality.
[Image: RT showing results for the two non-independent territories.]
Announcing the Results
A survey of western media on the morning of September 28th, after referenda polls closed shows ignorance, both literal and figurative. I have not the energy to critique each response or lack thereof by western media sources. The list of articles or lack thereof are gathered under Sources in "Referenda: We Shame Ourselves".
The summary is that some major western media chose not to report on the referenda results, but rather to sit of their previous laurels of declaring them as a 'sham'. Other outlets did not report the numbers but repeated previous claims that the referenda were illegitimate often citing the claim that they were held at 'gun point'.
This last claim is particularly laughable, because it is almost true. The elections were not held at 'gun point' but 'barrel point'. Those barrels being the AFU artillery. The collection of the Kiev legislation against the referenda and their armed forces attacks against the oblasts could be summarised as:
If you help organise the vote, you go to prison for 10 years. If you actually voted you go to prison for 5 years. And, if you gather to vote we're gonna kill you with artillery, as we have been doing for eight years.
Territory
The question is not whether the peoples of these oblasts wish to be free of the intimidation imposed upon them by the Kiev government, but of the territory which is implied in the referenda.
For the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, the territories are known. They are the administrative boundaries of the oblasts, as defined by the Kiev government as of their declaration of independence in 2014. For Kherson and Zaporizhzhia the geographic limits of the referenda are unclear. This lack of clarity should be resolved when the Russian paliament (Duma) considers their applications for membership. Law is law, and the geographic scope of it should be made clear.
What is clear is that Lugansk, under full control by its "separatist" government will become a part of the RF, and attacks against the territory will become attacks on the Russian Federation. In Donetsk, the AFU forces in its western area will become "occupying forces". This has no immediate effect on the battle field, but has very significant effects legally. It enables the RF to declare war on Ukraine, and thus unleash whatever armed responses and forces which were previously limited under the "Special Military Operation".
Geopolitics
The developments resulting from the referenda and the Russian partial mobilization of 300 000 reservists are both a checkmate and an escalation.
The recent prisoner exchange shepherded by Saudi Arabia clears the boards for personnel, but also highlights a shift in geopolitical allegiances. The April negotiations for a peace between Russia and Ukraine came close to an agreement. It should not be forgotten that the current Ukrainian President was elected on a platform of seeking peace. The tentative ceasefire agreements in April are now acknowledged to have been undermined by UK ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Turkey, a NATO member, held those negotiations.
66 nations have expressed their desire to see an end to this conflict in Ukraine. The periphery of USA influence are actually facilitating it.
Meanwhile, trade deals in local currency abound. The USA dollar is being undermined as the "global currency" of trade, not because its a bad currency, but because those who wield its influence are mercurial and feckless. When one starts stealing the sovereign funds of nations, exemplified by the targets Afghanistan and Russia, other nations become aware of the threat.
The war in Ukraine is not just an attack on people expressing their wishes via the ballot box, but also a threat on nations and their ability to manage an economy.
Sources
Referendums and Joining Russia, Ted Snider, Anitwar, 2022-09-30
'End War in Ukraine' Say 66 Nations at UN General Assembly, Medea Bejamin and Nicolas Davies, Common Dreams, 2022-09-29
Press Conference: Sergey Lavrov, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov (and UN translator into English), UN, 2022-09-24
Patrick Lawrence: In the Terrain of Word War III, Patrick Lawrence, Scheer Post, 2022-09-25
NATO in the Horns of a Dilemma after Former Ukrainian Regions Vote to Join Russia, Scott Ritter, INTERNATIONALIST 360°, 2022-10-02
Striding Towards Armageddon – Why Putin’s Annexations Are Wrong, Craig Murray, his website, 2022-10-02
Note: the above article by Craig Murray runs counter to the narrative of this article. However, I believe Mr. Murray to be a man of principle. He lays his argument based on censor statistics. It is important to consider wider views. I believe that Mr. Murray fails to grasp how 8 years of war can influence a population. Nonetheless, his argument is well made and worthy of consideration.
CrossTalk | Returning to Russia, CrossTalk, RT, 2022-09-28
US, UK sabotaged peace deal because they 'don't care about Ukraine': fmr. NATO adviser, Aaron Mate interviews Jacques Baud, Pushback (The Grayzone), 2022-09-27
For Humanity’s Sake, Ukraine War Must End – Wilkerson, Paul Jay interviews Lawrence Wilkerson, theAnalysis.news, 2022-09-26
Referenda: We Shame Ourselves
Survey 2022-09-28 07:40 to 09:00 CEST
With no article on the referenda results, only previous articles quoting the official word 'scam' the following publication ‘scam’ themselves:
NYT
WaPo
Fox News
LA Times
Der Spiegel
Some reports were delivered.
RT
Four regions vote to join Russia: What’s next?
SCMP
Russia claims win in Ukraine referendums, paving way for annexation
Reuters
Moscow's proxies in occupied Ukraine regions report big votes to join Russia
U.S. asks UN Security Council to condemn Russia for 'sham' referendums in Ukraine
NPR
Occupied regions of Ukraine vote to join Russia in staged referendums
BBC
Ukraine war: Russia claims win in occupied Ukraine 'sham' referendums
ABC (Australia)
Kremlin claims victory in controversial Ukraine referendums set to pave way for annexation
CNN
Russian forces have staged illegal ‘referendums’ in Ukraine. What comes next?
WSJ
Russia Prepares to Annex Parts of Ukraine as Staged Votes End
AP News
Kremlin announces vote, paves way to annex part of Ukraine
Le Monde
Zelensky calls referendums a 'farce' as Russia claims victory in Ukrainian annexation votes
Video Sources of the Voting process in the Oblasts
Referendums To Join Russia Start In Ukraine, Patrick Lancaster, his youtube channel, 2022-09-23
Note: 12:58 to 17:50: Alexsander Sergeyevich Stepanov, First Deputy Minister of Health, Kherson Region
International Observers Show At Ukraine Referendums To Join Russia, Patrick Lancaster, his youtube channel, 2022-09-25
See Ukraine Port City's Referendum (Backed By Russia) To Join Russia, Patrick Lancaster, his youtube channel, 2022-09-25
Inside Mariupol Ukraine Referendum To Join Russia, Patrick Lancaster, his youtube channel, 2022-09-26
Ukraine Referendum To Join Russia Ends In Donetsk, Patrick Lancaster, his youtube channel, 2022-09-27
War Zones w/Patrick Lancaster & Alex at Reporterfy (Live), Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris interview Patrick Lancaster and Alex at Reporterfy, The Duran, 2022-10-06
Downloading this video from Youtube looks like this:
yt-dlp -4 --proxy socks5://127.0.0.1:9150 --format (mp4)[height<=480] '
[youtube] Nbdj_05bbOc: Downloading webpage
[youtube] Nbdj_05bbOc: Downloading android player API JSON
[youtube] Nbdj_05bbOc: Downloading m3u8 information
[youtube] Nbdj_05bbOc: Downloading MPD manifest
[youtube] Nbdj_05bbOc: Downloading m3u8 information
[youtube] Nbdj_05bbOc: Downloading MPD manifest
[info] Nbdj_05bbOc: Downloading 1 format(s): 94
[hlsnative] Downloading m3u8 manifest
[hlsnative] Total fragments: 2417
[download] Destination: War Zones w⧸Patrick Lancaster & Alex at Reporterfy (Live) [Nbdj_05bbOc].mp4
This is the amount of crap delivered at us. We continue. References matter.
Countown Radio with Vanessa Beeley and Tony Kevin - Ukraine, Russia and the Donbass referendum, Countdown Radio with guests, their youtube channel, 2022-10-10
Culture
Thorn In My Side (2018 Remastered), Eurythics from the album Revenge (1986), Eurythmics, uploaded 2018-06-05
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Saw a very interesting comment recently about Australia criticising Russia's annexation of the territories and the world condemnation of Russia.
Yet Australia annexed Norfolk Island after the majority in Norfolk Island reject this as they were essentially a self governing territory. During World War II, Norfolk Island was an airbase and an important refueling stop in the South Pacific. In1976, an Australian judge recommended Norfolk Island be incorporated fully into Australia, which Norfolk Islanders rejected. Following an appeal to the UN, Australia granted limited self-government to Norfolk Island in 1979. Later Australia abolished the Norfolk Island Legislative Assembly in 2015, reduced Norfolk Island’s autonomy in 2016, and suspended the local council in 2020. The Western World was silent.