Truth and Fear: The Future is Known, the Details are Not

The Future is Known, the Details are Not

[Image: a screenshot of the top of the Kremlin page which contains the English transcript of their President’s speech and answers to questions.]

Published 2022-10-31

Update 2022-11-01: Culture section complete.

Update 2022-11-02: Added a video discussing the Cuban Missle Crisis and lessons to be derived from it. Quincey Institute / ACRURA: Ambassador Matlock, Katrina vanden Heuvel and others.

---

A reading of this article is available.

Preface

I trust that my readership waste little time imbibing the narrative controlled rubbish we receive from dominant English language internationally focused media operating in NATO countries. They are all singing from the same hymn book.

Sometimes their professions of being journalists trying to serve the polity are so obviously a lie, they are so subservient to narrative, so complicit, so sycophantic and so abuse their role that time and digital ink need be expended to expose their hypocrisy.

The Valdai Speech

The Russian Federation is a nuclear armed world power. Its President, Vladimir Putin, delivered a 43 minute long speech at an international forum, the Valdai discussion Club, with the event scheduled to begin at 2022-10-27 13:00 UTC (16:00 Moscow time).

Here are the top, and then bottom sections for Foreign Policy (FP) magazine (digital version, obviously) taken around 2022-10-30 19:00 UTC. This is more than three days after the delivery of the speech, which had live English translation. It is also at least a day after the publication the official transcript of the speech was published.

The speech is not prominent:

[Image: the top section of FP.]

It is nowhere:

[Image: the bottom section of FP.]

Recall, FP is the publishing arm of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the top foreign policy and political body outside of the USA government (excluding Wall Street and the Reserve Bank).

A Google search for "valdai club putin speech" yields, in order, 4 videos, the Kremlin transcript, a press release from the Valdai Club, two articles from TASS, a transcription from whoever "miragenews.com" are, one of the scant pieces of irrelevance from CNN I reported 72+ hours ago, a report (!) by "russia-briefing.com", and another transcript this time from "dl1.cuni.cz". Next, Google shows images.

Let me summarize: there is one piece of analysis. ONE!

This author has found two more, a video by The Duran, and an article by Pepe Escobar (see Sources). The criticism to come is not aimed at Google, much as I dislike it. It probably has the best web crawlers and search algorithm. The results I listed above are the best it can do.

Let me declare my position: The speech given by the President of the Russian Federation is one of the most important political speeches given in many decades. It is an epoch defining speech. President Putin even informs us of this in the speech, declaring that we are entering "the most dangerous, unpredictable and at the same time most important decade since the end of World War II". We shall return to why I believe this frightening truth.

The speech will certainly be quoted in academic history. It is likely to join the public discourse of history. It is that big. I may well be wrong and stand to be judged by time. Minimally, it is a 43 minute political speech at an international event by the leader of a world power. It is either monumentally important, or "just" important. And, yet, we have only one analysis found by Google, and nothing at all at FP.

The Disinformation Governance Board at Foreign Policy Magazine

From the above lack of coverage by FP conclusions may be drawn. One of, the FP/CFR refuses to publish any article, everybody knows to not even bother submitting, or nobody thought that writing an article was worthwhile. The first is entirely believable as is the second. The third is almost impossible. Consider the temptation as a policy analyst given a 43 minute speech by President Putin to be published in FP and you say, nah, why bother?

Thus, we have our conclusion. Either FP is refusing to publish or everybody knows they wont. Whether this is a collective understanding as described by Herman and Chomsky in "Manufacturing Consent" or whether its an explicit directive only FP and their senior contributors know.

The fact remains: a 43 minute political speech by the president of a nation which is a nuclear power with which the USA is currently at war has elicited zero articles at the USA's most prominent foreign policy journal.

What really blows my socks off is that they haven't even published an article attacking the speech.

The few references I found the day after the speech are already published. I see no reason to look further in the "mainstream media" if even FP are silencing articles.

The speech has received both a media and foreign policy analysis blackout. I equate this to the Seymour Hersh article "The Red Line and the Rat Line" which was so penetrating and revealing that even a journalist of his stature had to publish in the London Review of Books. The establishment are not even attacking the Valdai speech. To attack it is to give it attention. That is how bad the situation is.

A Brief Foray into Hypocrisy and Cognitive Dissonance

Caitlin Johnstone, bless her soul, continues to both yell from the rafters and paint pictures for us, both separately describing the insanity of our times. Her prose throws caution to the wind. It embraces the same passion of the hypocrites which it denounces, using, judo-like, their passionate stupidity against them.

[Image: the Hindenburg disaster.]

I was wrong about the Disinformation Governance Board. It was not a Hindenburg like trial balloon, but a prototype. Now, as the failing Empire of Chaos, Lies, Financial Oppression and Theft weakens, the USA's executive branch has "outsourced" the killing of truth to the Media as the executive is too busy. The killing of people is what the executive does. They are not sadists. They care about profit. It took the most highly decorated Marine General of the USA's history to see that the USA's executive branch, and he as military leader are merely the mafia thugs for a cabal of corporate owning oligarchs. His name was Major General Smedley Butler. He was of "good stock". His mind became clear eyed.

He learned to drop the imprinted propaganda from his eyes and mind to then see and understand.

Truth versus Measurement

If one asks an academic scientist about truth, the wiser among them will say "the philosophy department is down the hall, we deal in measurement". We minions of empire have difficulty in measurement (see Media above) and are left with, not truth, but perception. Those with deep personal relationships will have developed one of our most powerful abilities: compassion. The transition from perception to understanding and then to compassion is painful.

One is impressed (in the sense of "influenced") by the media one consumes. Call it what you will, propaganda, love stories, fairy tales or brilliantly composed still images of reality. The impression is emotional. In this space we are the ball in the pinball arcade game flicked left and right, through gates and over roller-coasters. If one moves to the slightly wider frame of understanding, then two or more perspectives begin to emerge. One begins to see. For compassion one joins the parade that has come before us, and is with us, represented by religious leaders such as Christ and Mohammad to more modern visionaries such as Gandhi, Martin Luther King Jr. and Desmond Tutu. We begin to understand that division is manufactured. Those creating these divisions drive us against our nature. We want to connect and embrace.

Sorry for the philosophy, back to the nails of the argument.

Truth is a Difficult and Effective Balm for Fear

The current bluster about nuclear weapons (of the chain-reaction type) is hot air. The Russian position is clear. It is written down and hasn't changed since before the latest phase of the eight year old Ukrainian conflict. It is their doctrine. As a non-military person I would summarize it as follows: if you attempt to destroy Russia, we threaten to use them. Or to put it another way, if you annoy us in some border dispute we will not use them.

All of the hot air has come from the "west". Putin has declared that he sees no use of nuclear weapons (of any type) for any military or political purpose in current or former Ukrainian territory. This is just a re-expression of the established doctrine. Meanwhile, ex-microsecond-UK-PM Liz Truss has been pressing the button, metaphorically, and Biden and co. are nuclear this-and-that'ing in verbal flappery.

There are many lessons to be learned from the cold war. One of which was expressed by John F. Kennedy which is an echo of Sun Tsu: "don't put an adversary in a position where their only option is to use all remaining force against you" (paraphrasing both). Ascendancy is achieved by careful maneuver to engage at positions of advantage, step by step weakening the opposition until they recognize, finally, that they cannot win. One must preserve one's force and flexibility.

The current conflict in Ukraine is not an "existential" threat to Russia. The problem was a potential genocide and following that the positioning in Ukraine of nuclear capable missile silos. Russia is serious in its approach to the conflict. We know this because of the formation of the Government Coordination Council whose mission is to streamline government processes to support their military. Some have reported that the last time Russia did this was during WWII. They have just called (I use past tense deliberately) up 300 000 reservists (41 000 of which are already deployed) which is a 150% increase on the previous amount allocated to the Special Military Operation. It is entirely unsurprising that the government would make adjustments to support such a large increase, or to put it another way, having half a million forces deployed.

Some Truths

As a first truth, the recent offensive in Kharkiv was a wonderful land grab for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). It cost them dearly. The small Russian and allied (LPR - Lugansk People's Republic, or should it be called the Russian oblast of Lugansk?) forces withdrew in orderly fashion losing some men and material. The AFU got hammered by Russian artillery and airforce losing thousands of men and hundreds of armoured vehicles. You cannot reposition land on a battlefield. It is a static asset. It is degraded or improved by weather. The valuable assets are those which can be repositioned, the men and machines. This was not even a "tactical" victory for Ukraine. It was a material loss, a weakening of potential, a very poor exchange for a static resource of open fields.

Over the last two months the AFU have been attempting to remove Russian forces from the city of Kherson. Kherson is not some open field but a city with infrastructure, buildings and a population. It, like fields cannot be moved. However, the building structures provide defensive and offensive positions. Recall the bloody battle of Mariupol. The AFU problem is that to get into the city they need cross open land upon which they are targets. The value of the position for the occupier is obvious, Kherson is the major city at the mouth of the mighty Dniper river. Russia has been for at least a week evacuating civilians from the city.

Why? And what does that say of the Russian military command and their political overseers?

Think about it.

My answer: they see the threat, they know the mid-terms in the USA are coming and they expect some stupid last dash assault. They do not have their reinforcements in place. Thus, evacuate much of the civilian population so you dont have to care for them if Ukraine attacks. Easier. Simple military mathematics. Oh, and that way the civilians don’t die either. Less graves to dig and grieving relatives to console.

Mea Culpa and Another Truth

The USA influenced/corralled/exacerbated/facilitated/planned coup in Kiev (See sources for the Nyland/Pyat phone call) in 2014 removed an elected government and replaced it with an installed government. The territory of Crimea captured after the Crimean war from the Ottoman Empire by Russia in the time of Catherine the Great had been internally transferred between the two Soviet Socialist Republics from Russia to Crimea in 1954. The strategically important Naval base at Sevastopol was separate to this, being under constant long term (we're talking 100 years) lease to Russia. When the Kiev coup occurred one can imagine the call from the leader of the Russian Navy to the Kremlin:

Status of Sevastopol is close to 100%; supplies, ammunition, ship operational capacity and personnel. We await your instruction.

I have no idea how the Ukrainian security forces were ejected from Crimea so quickly in a "bloodless" expulsion, but I can believe it. Crimea is Russia. It has been dominantly Russian since Stalin force migrated the remaining Tartar population after WWII. I imagine a combination of the local police forces, some intelligence support and perhaps even some use of the military police from the naval base convincing at gun point the Ukrainian security forces to piss off.

Ten years of studying history, even subversive history, is nothing. This author was, like many others, listening to those who seemed informed analysts who were all predicting that Russia would not invade, despite the fact that they had between 100 and 150 000 troops next to the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile the USA state department were constantly stating that Russia would invade.

I reflect on this now with piercing eyes. The combination of warning with that which has been planned and provoked is an interesting dynamic.

A Step Back in Time

I must, must mention this. The Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts has been attacked by the AFU with their integrated Nazi para-military battalions (Azov et. al) since at least late 2014. The Ukrainian citizens of these oblasts were being killed day by day by day by day by day. Houses destroyed. Markets attacked. Water treatment plants, electricity sub-stations, hospitals, bus stops, public streets, orphanages, ... damaged or destroyed. Civilians bowing their heads in sorrow for what used to be a place of social support and interaction. There is a word for this: terrorism. But, this time not some "radical non-state actor" but the government of Ukraine directing its national armed forces against its own citizenry.

Russel Bentley tells the story of a mother and her children in Donbas. A Ukrainian shell lands on or close to her home. Shrapnel from the blast leaves the lower part of one of her arms on the ground. She manages to tie a tourniquet with her other arm to stem the bleeding. She then, with one arm, digs her youngest child out of the rubble.

[Image: suppressing evidence of war crimes by Ukraine.]

This is unique: a European government employing its own armed forces, using terrorist tactics, in public, against its own citizens for eight long years (as observed by the Organisation for the Security and Cooperation in Europe -- the OSCE).

Eight years of sporadic but constant shelling of civilian areas behind the "contact line" occurred . Eight bloody years of fear, death and dismemberment were enacted upon the peoples of Lugansk and Donetsk by an imposed government for which nobody had voted and the USA had chosen.

A Personal Truth

My mea culpa is not listening to "expert opinion" and believing, or hoping even, that Russia would not invade. No. Its that I did not see the construction of the inevitability. I watched, day by day by day, the OSCE reports, deliberately obfuscated as they were, of the use of different armament types in different areas. I had stripped the fudging of the reports. I reduced it to what mattered: artillery shells. I watched and recorded. I saw the escalation each day.

But ... I've never served in the military. I did not understand.

This is not an OSCE graph. They don't do that. This is the result of your author compiling the text out of their deliberately unattributable source of firing damage reports trying to figure out what was happening.

I bloody well understand now. The two "Donbas" regions were fighting for their lives. They knew well before I what would happen to them should the Ukrainian forces break their lines. The Nazi components of the AFU would have begun reprisals immediately. This was an impending genocide.

The ten-fold increase in artillery bombardment was a preparation for a massive operation to overcome the Donbas resistance. A massacre and genocide would be the result. Following that Russia would be left with an aggressive nation on its borders ruled by fascists under the thumb of the USA.

Russia was forced to act both on humanitarian and military strategic grounds. Putin's desire for a settlement via the Minsk II Accords failed because Ukraine never intended to engage. I don't blame France or Germany for their failure as mediators. I blame the USA who were puppeteering Ukraine. This provocation which could not be resisted was engineered by the USA.

This war is the fault of the USA, not Russia.

The Decade Ahead

Putin warned that conflicts, or a series of conflicts are going to occur in the decade ahead.

It is simple. China, Russia and their growing band of "we're sick of US Hegemony and can see the writing on the wall" partner nations are going to build a replacement currency for international trade. This will undermine the US Empire. It is already 30 Trillion dollars in debt, and as they are unable to profit from the cycling of international trade through their banks this will grow rapidly. As soon as this begins the existing lack of confidence in the dollar will grow. Nations will move to more stable forms of wealth preservation. Gold is the natural choice. Another will be this new currency.

This spells the end for the US neo-colonial enterprise which is based on financial dominance. Thus, the US will writhe as dying empires do. It will engage in ill-conceived military adventurism to try to reassure itself. It will use its media machine to convince the world that the real enemy is China, and use the little island of Taiwan as the mechanism, just as it has used Ukraine as the provocation against Russia.

It is likely that millions of people will die as the result of wars created by the US Empire to preserve itself. It will fail. The world is changing.

President Putin outlined a vision of cooperation and respect for culture. The question is how closely to this the new world will adhere.

Sources

Valdai International Discussion Club meeting, Kremlin, 2022-10-27

Putin’s Valdai Discussion Club Speech, no author, Russia Briefing, 2022-10-28

Putin: 'The Situation Is, to a Certain Extent, Revolutionary', Pepe Escobar, The Unz Review, 2022-10-29

Putin Skewers US Ineptitude, Ray McGovern, Antiwar, 2022-11-01

The Red Line and the Rat Line, Seymour Hersh, London Review of Books, 2014-04-17

The Official Narrative On Ukraine, Caitlin Johnstone, her newsletter, 2022-10-29

New Study Finds The Rest Of The World Supports China And Russia, Caitlin Johnstone, her newsletter, 2022-10-31

Episode 123 - Meet Smedley Butler, James Corbett, CorbettReport, 2010-03-28

Transcript of Putin’s Meeting with members of the Government Coordination Council on the needs of the Russian Armed Forces, a republication of a transcript from the Russian Government, Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia, 2022-10-29

Марионетки Майдана (the Nyland/Pyat leaked phone call discussing who to appoint in the government to be installed in a couple of weeks), Re Post, uploaded 2014-02-04

Putin's Valdai Speech, warns Western elites, Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou, The Duran, 2022-10-28

60th Anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis: Unpacking Lessons from Peaceful Resolution, a open discussion of the Cuban Missile Crisis, ACRUA/Quincey Institute, uploaded 2022-11-01

Held in the Tabard Inn, Washington, a place of many recent interesting political events, notably repeated events to highlight the plight of Julian Assange. The conversation was held on October 27th, 2022.

Culture

4 Non Blondes - What's Up, 4 Non Blondes, from their 1992 debut album “Bigger, Better, Faster”, uploaded to youtube 2011-02-23

---

If you like what you read here, you can please the author by sharing it.

Notification

Subscription is optional. Subscribers can expect notifications for most articles. Better is to use RSS, or bookmark the "Archive" page and visit at leisure. If you use Twitter, following @YesXorNo1 is also an effective notifications strategy.

Copyright and Licensing

This work is copyright to the blog's author with CC BY-SA 4.0 licensing. Have fun, reuse, remix etc. but give credit and place no further restrictions. Lets build culture.