Türkiye and Ukraine in Syria: Upscaling the Proxy Wars

Facilitated by CIA+MI-6+Mossad+T-MIT+GUR

Published: 2024-12-05

Updated 2024-12-07: The deconfliction contact between CENTCOM and Russia’s military in southwest Asia has been (re-)established. Added note and reference.

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Dangers Ahead

Col. Wilkerson expressed his exasperation at the folly of the current actions of the US government restarting the Syrian Dirty War. His frustration is the number of major powers which are being sucked into the conflict. The risk of a full regional war involving nuclear powers is high. From there it could go anywhere.

The US foreign intelligence organisation, the CIA, is the prime mover, operating in concert with its major partner, British MI-6, and its most important regional partners Mossad and T-MIT (Turkish military intelligence), and utilizing its new partner in Ukraine, the GUR (and its internal SBU). These 5 national military intelligence organisations are employing proxy forces Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the re-branded "Free Syrian Army" now called the Syrian "national" Army (SNA) and the Kurdish "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF).

They are engaging the Russian and Iranian intelligence agencies who are militarily represented by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the IRGC, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and regional militias which support Syria including Hezbollah and elements of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs). Note that Iran and Russia have issued formal declarations of their support for Syria, and are both operating in Syria at the invitation of the Syrian government. Everybody else is operating illegally, invading Syrian territory. This includes Israel which still illegally occupies the Syrian Golan heights, a reminder of which the U.N. just issued reaffirming the recent judgement of the International Court of Justice.

Geostrategically, this is a NATO + Israel vs. Russia + Iran (and by extension China) war. But, the local political concerns of the actors creates a diverse complexity of interests which is the basis for Wilkerson's concern.

The timing of the restart of the Syrian Dirty War, from the geostrategic layer, serves several purposes. First and foremost, it will create a messy conflict from which incoming US President elect Trump will have great difficulty withdrawing.

From Israel's perspective, it is a pivot. The IDF are given the rest they require, especially their elite Golani brigade, which suffered heavily at the hands of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Syrian Dirty War (SDW) 2.0 is intended to further weaken Syrian President al Assad and much more importantly reduce IRGC logistics through Syria to support Hezbollah, both of which are to the direct benefit of the Greater Israel Zionist project. A core Zionist objective is to hide their genocide in Gaza beneath a greater war. The attack on Lebanon was part of that. SDW 2.0 is the next phase. A US war against Iran is their target.

MI-6 are involved because the British still think of themselves as part of the "empire". The British military is tiny and inexperienced. Their elite forces and military intelligence are still effective. This is how they serve the US leadership of the Anglo-American Empire.

The motives for Turkish President Erdogan to unleash his Military Intelligence Organisation (officially acronymed, MIT, so T-MIT to not confuse it with the US university) is not yet entirely clear. An extremely large prize must be on offer for Erdogan to burn all of his credibility with Russia and China. Iranian distrust of Türkiye is based on centuries of experience.

While both the Ukrainian GUR and SBU are involved (GUR is the main intelligence directorate including external operations, SBU is limited to Ukraine), this article will just refer to GUR. Its motivation seems to be to further ingratiate itself with the CIA and MI-6, which this newsletter commonly refers to as just "CI-6".

Destabilization

The initial force unleashed from Idlib is estimated at 15 000. To this can be added the small US force at Conoco in northeastern Syria which has been "securing" and stealing Syrian oil for it to be on-sold via Turkey to Israel while protecting their Kurdish pawns. The Kurdish militia, the YPG, is re-branded as the SDF for its role in this conflict, and is to be added to the HTS and SNA forces from Idlib. The total active forces from these is perhaps 20 000.

To this should be added whatever special forces T-MIT allows into northern Syria to aid the HTS and SNA groups and those from Ukraine.

This is a sizable force but insufficient to defeat the SAA, IRGC, and the incoming PMUs, with Russia airforce and intelligence support. The mission is destabilization and entanglement.

Its most important phase was its first. The aggressors need the Syrian population to lose confidence in their government. They need to be afraid. This is achieved by the media, which along with logistics, is a major area of operations for the Western intelligence collective.

Vanessa Beeley related on TLAV a perfect example of this. A video of a convoy of SAA vehicles heading north to reinforce the SAA units which had retreated from Idlib and Aleppo to Hama was modified. The direction was flipped. An audio was added. It was then issued describing the SAA retreating. These intel media operations were for local impact.

The legacy Western media is to lay the blame for the conflict on anyone else than the intelligence collective. The usual tactic of personalizing the hegemon's enemies will be used with the demonization of Assad and Putin. For Iran it will be "the mullahs" or equivalent. These narratives are important for they set the frame for the continued coverage in the West. For SDW 2.0, they are even simpler, because they are just a re-issue of the narratives from SDW 1.0, with the added benefit for the manipulators of the pejoratives used during the NATO war versus Russia in Ukraine. “Syrian Democratic rebels are fighting the murderous autocrats Assad and Putin” etc..

Indeed, one may even expect the North Koreans to somehow be involved. The evidence free case of North Korean troops fighting in Kursk is still being run, using generated "fake news".

GUR Confirmation

Informed opinion in independent media has asserted that the CIA has been using the GUR, its "friends in Kiev" as expressed during the combined CI-6 presentation at the Financial Times a few months ago. This has recently been supported by statements from Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova and reports in the Kyiv Post. This is now further confirmed by reports from Al Mayadeen and The Cradle. That GUR operatives have been acting internationally against Russia and thus for the CIA has been known for months. That GUR has been using extremists claiming to be Muslims from the Caucaus and Syria in the war in Ukraine has been known for years.

During the initial phases of the NATO versus Russia war in Ukraine, Türkiye supplied drones to the NATO proxy. Because of this, one can expect that connections between T-MIT and GUR were established. The use of Ukrainian special forces (drone operators) in Syria, from Idlib, via Türkiye, is an extension of this. It will provide additional benefit for T-MIT. Their special forces will receive training from experienced Ukrainian operators.

The military intelligence collective is distributing advanced training in drone warfare out of the Ukrainian theatre into other "special forces".

The Conflict Ahead

Given the independent media's understanding of the manner of the conflicts in both SDW 1.0 and Ukraine, one can predict with confidence a generalized picture of the likely nature of SDW 2.0.

Should a new "civil defence"/"White Helmets" type organisation emerge "assisting civilians" in "war torn areas" which happen to be under the control of HTS/SNA/SDF then we know this is a CI-6/T-MIT/Mossad operation. It will be an atrocity publication operation. All of the beheaded babies and chemical weapons will have been coordinated by these agencies for issue by Western media for consumption by sensitive Western populations.

Once military contact lines have stabilized, the war will devolve into a variant of the conflict in Ukraine. It will be dominated by standoff weaponry and ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance platforms). For this reason, the establishment of a deconfliction contact group between CENTCOM and the Russian Military is paramount. [This has been established — see the Helmer source.] This is the facility to stop this Western instigated proxy war spiraling out of control. The military intelligence organisations have little concern for this. That job falls to the military, who do actually care somewhat about their personnel and assets, for should things go very wrong, they end up carrying the can.

The operational intelligence battle will be between NATO/US satellite, limited air, and ground intelligence versus Russian satellite, Russian and Syrian air and combined Russian/Iranian/Syrian ground intelligence. One should expect precisely the same weaponry complex from Russia: FABs (glide bombs) for destroying cover, a combination of MLRS (multi-launch rocket) and artillery, and drone stand-off weaponry. These will be augmented by Iranian and Chinese production, and Iranian operation and expertise. The Iraqi PMUs already have experience in drone warfare. They were trained by the IRGC.

One of the first "products" which Russia will introduce are the localized electronic warfare systems it has been using in the Donbas and elsewhere to scramble Ukrainian drone signals. Countering the enemy's surveillance drones is critical. Scrambling their signals is easier than shooting them down, but comes at the risk of being identified by emitting strong radio signals. It is a game of cat and mouse.

Another cat and mouse game is political. Russia could introduce better missile defence systems to southern Syria if Israel uses its airforce in ways not approved by Russia. This is another worrying variable. US surveillance or other planes may get shot down, and there is nothing more which the Zionists covet (excepting other peoples’ lands).

A weakness of the western proxies (HTS/SNA/SDF) will be logistics. They will need to be supplied via Türkiye, or potentially in a limited manner via southern Syria (al Tanf). Their initial primary supply route will be from Turkiye to Idlib where considerable supplies should have been stocked. Field units will be supplied from Idlib. Naturally, the destruction of stockpiles is an early priority for Syria and its allies.

[Syrian coastal and western defence logistics — green ellipses.]

The longer that Türkiye allows or facilitates the logistics supply, the longer the conflict will continue and the more damage Türkiye will do to its reputation outside of NATO/Israel.

Jordan's declining reputation in the region is going to become even worse. From the Syrian/Iranian/Russian perspective, their key supply lines into Syria are to Iraq and then via al Tanf in southern Iraq/Syria. The US base al Tanf and "Tower 22" in Jordan are going to be placed under huge pressure. Recall that when last attacked, it was revealed that "Tower 22" had no effective defence, but was "secured" via radars from the US airbase in Jordan (Muwaffaq Salti).

Jordan's population is dominantly Palestinian or highly supportive of the Palestinian cause. Syria has consistently supported Palestine as another Arab state. Jordan's King is risking his rule by overtly supporting the Zionists and their Western backers in SDW 2.0. The pressure is increased by the readmission of Syria to the Arab League, and general regional support for Syria.

The other natural logistics pressure point is northeastern Syria (the Kurds and the illegal US base at Conoco) which may be pressured from Iraq on its east. The Kurds may, like the Turks, switch sides. Their allegiance depends on prospects for "Kurdistan", or local autonomous rule, which Iraq may be induced to offer to remove the US and open the supply route. The position and behaviour of the Kurds is one of the uncontrollable variables which worries analysts like Wilkerson.

They are currently acting on behalf of the US. Indeed, CENTCOM militarily supported an attack by the Kurdish forces in the north, directly involving the US military in the war.

Another uncertainty are all of the US bases in Iraq, which the current Iraqi government wishes removed.

Counter-Intelligence

If you would like to undermine the machinations of the Zionists, or do not approve of the CIA running amok and siphoning weapons from Ukraine to other theatres for the CIA's own geopolitical purposes, or for any other reason, the current news that Ukraine has trained and is fighting with the HTS jihadists is the forbidden narrative. Publish it.

Brendan Cole from Newsweek provided an article back in June detailing Ukraine's "special forces" fighting Russia both in Syria and Africa:

Kyiv's special forces are targeting Russian mercenaries in Syria, a Ukrainian media outlet has reported.

It comes nine months after a separate report by CNN said that Ukrainian special forces were likely behind drone strikes and a ground operation against a Russian mercenary militia in Sudan where a civil war is raging.

[2024-06-04]

For the current operation with HTS in Syria, and previous operations in Africa we have this recent article from Kyiv Post:

It has been suggested that these Ukrainian special forces advisors are providing support to the current opposition attacks [Syrian Dirty War 2.0] but there has been no independent verification of any such involvement. [Yes, there has, see The Cradle, below.]

The suggestion of Ukrainian involvement could be seen as part of a broader trend of Kyiv’s forces targeting Russian forces abroad, including alleged direct support for an Islamist militia attack on Russian Wagner Group mercenaries and government forces on July 26 in Mali.

The Cradle cites Al Mayadeen and additional sources:

Ukraine’s White Wolves special operations unit is deployed in northern Syria alongside Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-led (HTS) militants who are waging an assault against the Syrian government in the countryside of Idlib and Aleppo, according to multiple sources cited by Al Mayadeen on 3 December.

"Not surprising at all, as we have seen anti-Assad terrorists from Syria alongside Ukrainian militants in Kharkov back in 2022."

Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) December 1, 2024

The Al Mayadeen report includes:

Photos circulating on social media show Ukrainian fighters on the frontlines in Aleppo and Hama, with some of the images depicting military operations and reconnaissance missions.

The photos of Ukrainian soldiers in Syria further suggest a significant role in the heavy use of advanced drones in combat against Syrian forces—a capability that Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham did not possess in recent years.

Insanity

We have three nuclear states (US, Russia, Israel) involved in a eight way (+Türkiye, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Kurds) conflict to help the Zionists, mire the incoming US regime, advantage Türkiye in an unidentified way, and "weaken" the SCO/BRICS to the profit of the US Military Industrial Complex and suffering of the Syrian people.

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Sources

The Syria Riddle: How It May Turn Into the First BRICS War, Pepe Escobar, The Unz Review, None

Ukraine's White Wolf joins Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham against Syrian army, Al Mayadeen English, 2024-12-03

Ukraine's 'White Wolves' unit fighting alongside extremists in Syria: Report , The Cradle [Internet Archive], 2024-12-03

Escalation in Syria clearly involves Ukrainians — Foreign Ministry - Russian Politics & Diplomacy, TASS, 2024-12-04

Ukrainian Trained, Turkish Sponsored Syrian Rebels Lead Assault on Aleppo, Kyiv Post, 2024-12-01

Russia Accuses Ukraine of Supporting Al-Qaeda-Linked Fighters in Syria, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-12-03

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Ukraine's Special Forces Start Hunting Down Russians Around the World, Bredan Cole, Newsweek, 2024-06-04

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JCS Chief General Charles Brown Just Proved That Nothing Short Of Ukraine'S Surrender Is Negotiable With The Us - That's Capitulation, Not Negotiation, John Helmer, Dances with Bears, 2024-12-05

The Pentagon source of the CNN report said that the “US and Russia maintain deconfliction lines in certain combat zones to avoid unintentional encounters when the two militaries operate near each other. That line has been used recently in the Middle East to prevent any friction between US and Russian forces operating in Syria.”

Report: Ukraine Sent Drones and Drone Operators to HTS Before Offensive That Ousted Assad, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-12-11 # published by Antiwar after this article.

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