Ukraine: Dazed and Dancing to Russia's Rhythm

How much more does Kiev wish to forgoe?

Feb 25, 2024

Published: 2024-02-26

The AFU's rout at Avdiivka will be for the SMO/NATO-Russia war that which the war will historically be seen for the US Empire: the event which symbolizes the inevitability of the outcome, the "tipping point".

In 'Ukraine Can No Longer Win - It In Fact Never Had A Chance To Win', Moon Of Alabama's b. provides an almost deductive line of reasoning which solidly informs us of the inevitability of the current situation from an understanding of Russian military doctrine and troop formations.

Larry Johnson in 'When Titans Clashed is Still Relevant' helps explain one aspect of the determined stupidity of US military leadership. Russia is not doing what the US' analysts are expecting them to. Their expectation is based upon some magical understanding of reality and a Hollywood understanding of history, rather than actual reality or real history. Or, the useful analysts have been purged from the system, just as in the Think Tank foreign policy world.

Johnson recommended Simplicius the Thinker's 'Avdeevka Denouement: Russian Momentum Turning Point'. It presented the current situation, based upon quoted media and sources, from which a Russian doctrine can be derived. This currently 'tested as successful' doctrine is being flown back to Russia's general officer's academy via a rotated general. Ritter informed of this a few days ago on Haiphong's program, as mentioned in ‘The Rout of Avdiivka’. A summary of the doctrine and understanding was provided by Simplicius after he presented a description of military reality.

Short to medium range, high impact, precision weaponry combined with high density, close up ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) heavily complimented by drones means that high density troop concentrations become exposed and are extremely dangerous. This makes "big arrow" offensives dangerous in terms of casualties risked in their execution, and moreso in their preparation. Russia aint gonna go there.

The core background understanding is delivery by 'b.', Russia's economy and logistics rhythms are now tuned both to each other and at an effective frequency.

Sadly, for the AFU, theirs are completely out of rhythm. They are struck by a list of critical shortages in manpower, systems, ammunition for those system, funding, and defense works. The cost of war and corruption mounts. Most importantly, the AFU lack sufficient air defence. The recent change of military leadership to Syrskyi is indicative of these nightmares. Syrskyi's predecessor would not, because he could not, effect his President's orders, so 'Elensky replaced him with a man who will be profligate with AFU soldiers to satisfy his commander's orders.

In turn, given the Russia domination of the skies and the production rate of their 'glide bombs', the newly minted troops in Avdiivka both went mad due to shell shock and lost their minds looking for news of funds from the US while siing the change in their own military leadership for what it was. I contend that the 850 to 1 000 soldiers who surrendered during the rout were the most intelligent and fortunate.

During this war, Russia has been complying with the laws of war in the treatment of prisoners. Compare this with the repeated Ukrainian killings of their own prisoners of war under Russian care. They burned alive hundreds in a POW camp south of Donetsk City via a HIMARS attack. They recently shot down a plane load of them.

Simplicius' description of the coming and current Russian strategy is to daze the AFU. A never ending series of attacks and feints all along the 1200 Km front lines stressing insufficient AFU reserves in troops and systems. Should Russia be able to exploit deficiencies, a stochastic rhythm of defeats and withdrawals will play in the ears of the troops and their command.

Dima, from Military Summary channel, is still reporting every day on what is happening across the contact lines. His most recent report visits place after place where Russia's pressure is forcing AFU withdrawal. The rhythm of retreat is building.

The reason for Biden' remonstration of Congressional representatives taking their 2 week vacation also features in Simplicius' informative article. It will be understood by military commentators such as Col. Macgregor. The AFU needs re-supply and its needs it now. Spring is about to arrive. After the Rasputitsa mud season, the ground will firm. Russia has deployed much of its recently, well trained and armed, new forces. Their logistics are tuned to their production and these brigades can dance to Russia's military leadership's beat as the AFU is dazed.

The Russian President commented in his recent extended interview with a western interviewer (okay, Carlson) that Russia is still willing to negotiate, as it has been since day one. The restatement of this political reality is sensible and strategic. It is political pressure being applied as Russia begins to push its military momentum. The processes of demilitarization and denazification will be far more effectively and inexpensively achieved via the political defeat of Ukraine, whereafter the neutering of Ukraine's Nazi's can be handled by a replaced, native and Russian sensitive government.

From this understanding, putting on a 'Full Spectrum Dominance' strategic hat, one should expect Russia to seek to accelerate the creation of conditions for real, native political rebellion in western and central Ukraine. This is the intelligent ploy to run while Russia's military daze and defeat an outmanned, outsupplied and outwitted AFU. Russian's strategic planners would be derelict to not suggest such an approach.

Thus, as the late spring and summer comes, expect regional unrest in Ukraine and for the corrupt, fascist regime in Kiev to attempt to suppress it, playing into the hands of Russia. Who knows when the political defeat will be achieved?

That it looms is obvious.

The faster a political force in Ukraine can both realise this and take the reigns to negotiate with Russia, irrespective of the consternation of the US and EU, the better for Ukraine.

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Sources

Avdeevka Denouement: Russian Momentum Turning Point, Simplicius the Thinker, 2023-02-25

When Titans Clashed is Still Relevant, Larry Johnson, A Son of the New American Revolution, 2024-02-25

Ukraine Can No Longer Win - It In Fact Never Had A Chance To Win, b., Moon of Alabama, 2024-02-23

The Rout of Avdiivka, YesXorNo, 2024-02-25

Latest News From Robotyne, Avdiivka, Bakhmut And Kupiansk Direction. Military Summary For 2024.02.25, Dima, Military Summary, 2024-02-25

More unreality from the ‘archdeepstater’ Nuland, generously contributed by community member Pietro Wislon. This is the US State Department’s narrative from the horse’s mouth, the US agent of the 2014 Euromaidan coup, on the 2nd anniversary of the war she wanted and helped engineer at the key Think Tank.

From the wife of the rabid neo-con warmonger, Robert Kagan:

Victoria Nuland: Two-Year Anniversary of Russia's Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine, Victoria Nuland, Center for Strategic International Studied, 2024-02-22