Ukraine's Independence Day

2024-08-24

Published: 2024-08-24

Updated 2024-08-24: massive date fail in the first line fixed. Ooops. Supporting consular references added, and a graphic or two.

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First the Anvil then the Hammer

On the evening of Friday August 23rd, 2024, Dima (see Sources) reported that the Russian Ambassador to the US stated that President Putin has decided how to respond to the NATO/Ukraine invasion. The Chinese embassy in Kiev has urged its citizens to not travel to Ukraine due to fears of a massive attack. The US embassy in Kiev urged US citizens to depart Ukraine "now", said Dima.

An attack by Ukraine and allies occurred a few days ago on a Russian airforce base deep in the Federation to Ukraine's east destroying planes and ammunition stores. Another recent attack on an airfield in northern Russia was defeated by air defence. Dima claims that NATO/Ukraine drone attacks have targeted Russian fuel stores in recent days.

Dima suspects that F-16s recently delivered to Ukraine by its NATO military and political partners will be used either offensively or defensively on Independence day as a mechanism to provide western media with news to continue their narrative support for the economically and militarily failing Ukrainian state.

Meanwhile in Donetsk, Donbas

Russia continues its advance to the south of Pokrovsk into the line of coal mines and their raised landfills. Russia has entered the eastern outskirts of the major town roughly central to the north-south mining area, Novogrodivka. Russian forces seem to be pushing to the south of the southernmost landfill into the village there in order to cut supply to the nearby landfill defensive position.

[Pokrovsk, south and east.]

Russian forces are also pushing to the north of the mining area. When complete, this will prevent resupply to the town to Pokrovsk's east, on the outskirts of which Russia achieved a presence days ago. The combined pincer operation will move Russia beyond and into the outermost of the two lines of defense around Pokrovsk.

Several days ago, Ukrainian authorities in Pokrovsk began civilian evacuations.

The approach Russia is taking is consistent with their general tactics, minimizing casualties, probing and capturing areas of weaker defense. While Ukraine has sent so many of its well trained and equipped forces into the Kursk offensive in Russia, the Russian forces in Donetsk, especially around Pokrovsk and Toretsk are advancing much more rapidly than previously with the same cautious tactics.

The Russian approach to the Toretsk agglomeration was hampered by a large, raised landfill between the eastern line of urban areas and the city's centre. Over the last fortnight Russia has neutralized that position and moved around it such that they are now closing in on the center from both its east and south.

[Toretsk. The raised landfill is in the grey area, around which Russia has advanced.]

Fighting in urban areas had, earlier in the war, been slow and cost high casualties as seen in former Bakhmut. In both Russia's capture of the eastern urban areas and then the eastern and southern approaches to Toretsk's center their advances have been astonishingly fast, by comparison.

That these advances in Toretsk and in the surrounds of Pokrovsk are happening simultaneously speaks loudly to the lack of defense forces. Russia's targeting, via drone surveillance and attack, of Ukrainian supply lines has been a theme of their operations. Surveil, target, approach, flank, envelope. This process has be demonstrated at small, medium and regional scale. It is the methodology of a war of attrition. Its clear results can be seen on maps made by all monitors.

[Toretsk in the center. The grey areas are others which Russia has pushed around, flanking and enveloping.]

Methodology and Message

A different operational strategy, often propounded by Western analysts, is one of the 'big arrow' offensive using combined arms warfare at scale. It requires the concentration and concealment or protection of large collections of men and arms and support infrastructure before the initial advance. This was achieved by Ukraine and its NATO allies for their invasion of Russia in the Kursk oblast. However, to be effective this approach requires air cover to support the advance, and even more importantly, to maintain control of territory taken.

The NATO led invasion still does not have air cover. The 10 to 20 thousands men and their armaments and support now located in Kursk are vulnerable to attacks on isolated units and logistic support. As the saying goes, Russia is slow to saddle but quick to ride. The Federation deployed Marines and volunteer brigades to contain the invasion with key support from the Chechen Akhmat special-forces. It appears that Russia has now gathered and deployed forces in sufficient numbers which it will be able to use to drive the invaders out of Kursk or into its soil.

Preparations to weaken logistics and break communications, as well as plenty of targeted attacks on exposed units, have been made. The futile invasion is about to meet the concerted anger of a unified, deep response.

That it should begin on Ukraine's Independence day will send an unmistakable political and military message.

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Sources

Chinese embassy in Ukraine warns citizens not to travel to Ukraine, Al Arabiya, 2024-08-22

Security Alert: Message for U.S. Citizens in Ukraine, US Embassy Kiev (Ukraine), 2024-08-21

Back to the Bloodlands: Operation Krepost, Big Serge, Big Serge Thought, 2024-08-20

2587, Total Ukrainian losses for the day of 2024-08-23 according to Russia as reported by Время МСК [previously used by Andrei Martyanov to cite Russia’s MoD statistics]

The Heat🔥Kyiv Is Expecting Severe Punishment💥Russia Begins Counterattack⚔️Military Summary 2024.8.23 [9SN1Luesm08], Dima, Military Summary, 2024-08-23

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