UN Security Council on Ukraine: Redux
Redux
Publication date: 2022-02-19
Update 2022-02-20: added a Joe Lauria piece from ConsortiumNews to sources. Lauria is a 20+ year veteran reporter on the U.N. Also, an interview with Ray McGovern who comments on Blinken’s embarassing performance in the council chamber.
Update 2022-04-26: I missed the importance a word by the Kenyan representative.
The United Nations Security Council has gathered for the second time in 18 days to consider the conflict in Ukraine. The preceding event was hastily convened on the day preceding the transfer of the council's rotating presidency from the hands of NATO ally Norway to that of the Russian Federation to provide a pulpit from which the USA and her allies could amplify the messages being delivered by the USA's administration and the English language corporate media of the threat posed by Russia moving troops around within her borders. This most recent event was well announced in advance and served to highlight the lack of any significant progress, apart from the partially successful ceasefire and the OSCE's SMM (Special Monitoring Mission) role, on the 7 year anniversary of the signing of the "package of measures" known as the Minsk Agreements (II).
Note: The abbreviation MA2 is used throughout to mean the Minsk Agreement (or Minsk Accords) version II. LPR+DPR refers to the two breakaway republics in the east of Ukraine, the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples' Republics.
Before we get to the events of and comments on the meeting, let us revisit some recent history.
A Quick 10 Year Greater Regional Recap
Don't worry, lots of 2016 to 2020 is skipped, and references are provided.
Although begun in Tunisia 2010, the events on January 25th 2011 in Cairo put what became known as the "Arab Spring" on the map. A day later protests began on a small scale in Syria
2 months later, with then President Obama having let his Secretary of State HR Clinton off the leash, on March 17th the UN Security Council runs a trial of the "Right to Protect" doctrine adopted at the UN's World Congress in 2005 by approving 10-0 (with 5 abstentions) a "No-Fly Zone" over Libya. The no-fly zone does nothing to stop the country being ripped apart by existing rebellious forces being augmented by foreign religious extremist fighters. Indeed, wild claims of soldiers on Viagara raping women were bandied about in USA media as the no-fly zone transitioned into an air war. Within a few years the country is ungovernable, running slave markets and facilitating for private profit the transport of refugees from western Africa through Libya which would then destabilize Europe and lead to a rise in nationalist and racist political voices
During 2012-2013 the CIA began its Operation Timber Sycamore of funding, training and arming Syrian "rebels". Meanwhile a "ratline" of arms and fighters were being run from Libya into Syria with the assistance of neo-Ottoman Sultan Erdogan. Additional funding and logistical support for the "rebel" forces were also supplied by peace and stability, human rights loving local countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel.
In mid 2013 Russian President Putin offers USA President Obama a way out of the chemical weapons "red-line" which is trapping him into having to launch a war on Syria. Syria's President Assad has agreed to have their entire chemical weapons stock destroyed. The destruction under the auspices of the OPCW begins in September/October that year.
Having emerged from the remnants of al Qaeda in Iraq, the group re-branded itself in 2013 to "ISIS", and in 2014 having already captured parts of Aleppo in Syria the group attacked Mosul and Tikrit in northern Iraq and in June declared the Caliphate from Aleppo to Diyala in Iraq.
In February 2014 the "Euromaidan" "most blatant coup in history" was delivered upon Ukraine with muscle from neo-Nazi and fascist forces and political organisation from the USA.
Existing security forces in Crimea take bloodless control of the province instructing the Ukrainian forces to leave and live. Russia positions its security forces in the region to support the local forces and secure her naval port at Sevastopol. A referendum vote in Crimea returns 90+% to rejoin Russia and leave Ukraine which is now run by a coup government with neo-Nazi elements which Crimean resident's grandparents had fought some 60 years earlier.
Ukraine set both its national forces and allowed the neo-Nazi/fascist paramilitaries loose on the newly declared rebel provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk. Even Foreign Policy reports that Russia's role in assisting the provinces was light, and used some of their least significant weaponry. Nonetheless, Ukrainian forces suffered repeated heavy defeats in these earliest most intense battles of the Ukrainian civil war.
By 2015 Syria's President Assad already has the assistance of its mutual defence ally Iran, and has asked for assistance from Russia. Iran's Quds for General Suleimani with commanders provided by Hezbollah and newly formed brigades called for in a non-sectarian fatwa by Iraqi Shia religious leader al-Sistani defeat ISIS in Iraq and drive them back to Syria. Meanwhile with Russian air support, and a very carefully coordinated deconfliction facility between Russia and USA to prevent accidents, the Syrian Arab Army is recovering Syrian territory from the religious extremist insurgents, or terrorists, if you like.
Fast forwarding to 2021 and focusing on Ukraine:
During the northern spring of 2021 Ukraine begins loading tanks and tracked vehicles on trains bound for the line of contact, or ceasefire line, established in MA2 signed on February 17th 2015.
Seeing the bloodbath that may come, Russia deploys two armies and three paratrooper battalions to the eastern and north eastern borders of Ukraine. The deployment is so rapid that alarm bells begin to ring in Kyiv and Washington. USA President Biden diverts two ships bound for the Black Sea to a friendly Mediterranean port. A summit between Presidents Biden and Putin is scheduled for that summer in Geneva.
The UK pursuing both some form of international relevance and to secure contracts to upgrade Ukrainian military ports on the Black Sea decides to sail HMS Defender close to or within the 12 nautical mile exclusion zone around Crimea, with two reporters on board.
The summit passes with some success and tracks of action on a few issues including, or course Ukraine and Russia's desire for security, and significantly cyber security.
By November 2021 the USA administration and media are expressing alarm at Russia redeploying her troops within her borders.
By February 2021 the alarm has reached such fever pitch that Ukraine's President Zelensky has asked the USA and media to calm down as its causing damage to the economy and social fabric. Meanwhile the USA is casting aspersions of false flag operations involving "crisis actors" being planned by Russia.
UN Security Council Meeting on Ukraine: Redux
Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Vershinin Sergey Vasilievich (Вершинин Сергей Васильевич) chaired the council meeting. He moved quickly through standard protocols to approve the agenda and invited guests from outside the council. Four persons were given the opportunity to brief the council, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo (which seems obligatory), a representative of the OSCE with a senior position in Ukraine, the head of the monitoring for the OSCE's SMM (special monitoring mission in Ukraine) and a Ukrainian criminal defense lawyer Tetyana Montyan. He also invites Germany and Ukraine.
With the exception of DiCarlo whose presence seems a diplomatic necessity, and Montyan who turns out to be quite a firebrand, the other invitees ensure that all parties with a role in implementing (as opposed to negotiating compromises within) MA2 have been invited to the meeting. Discussing the progress, or lack thereof, on implementation of MA2 is the topic of discussion and Russia has ensured full participation.
A Timeline
The full 3 hour video of the meeting is included in sources below. Here follows a chronology of the meeting and a summary of what is said by national representatives.
When the term "Middle" is used it means that the standard diplomatic language of supporting the UN Charter and any existing relevant Security Council resolutions are stated in pure diplomat-ese. A "middle line" is being walked.
The term "Interesting" means that the representative actually had something to say, and an extended discussion of their comments is either provided in the timeline, or in the analysis which follows.
00:55:44 [Interesting]: Russia (1). The chairman frames the discussion laying out events and comments which provide evidence of who is behind the continued delay of implementing MA2.
01:06:47 [Interesting]: USA (1). Essentially triples down on evidence free alarmist rhetoric.
01:17:55 [Interesting]: UK. Supports the USA line, though slightly less insane rhetoric. Does provide misleading statements.
01:25:34 Norway. Repeats USA talking points.
01:30:09 [Middle]: Brazil
01:34:35 [Middle]: Ireland
01:39:41 [Middle]: India. However, the representative mentions that "the well being of [Indian] nationals [in Ukraine] is of priority to us" which seems a gentle nod to Russia which has hundreds of thousands of dual citizens or foreign nationals in eastern Ukraine.
01:42:42 [Middle]: Kenya.
01:46:39 [Middle]: UAE.
01:50:56 [Middle]: Ghana. Does, however, actually acknowledge that the conflict is ongoing.
01:56:58 [Middle]: Mexico. Acknowledges the recent heads of state level diplomacy which has been occurring. Does not name France or Germany or other parties like Hungary and Italy, but they all know.
02:02:30 [Interesting]: China. Diplomatic earthquake of 9.0 on the Richter scale delivered in 5 minutes 40 seconds.
02:08:21 Albania. USA talking points but a bit left of field. Included this statement which undermines the unanimously approved resolution (2202) which ratified MA2, "We reject any pressure on Ukraine to implement [the] Minsk Agreement according to one side's interpretation."
02:14:30 France. Tip toes down the middle with little ventures aside. Acknowledges the "greater security in Europe" issue, which is the core of Russia's recent efforts, and even mentions the Helsinki Final act and Charter or Paris. Then calls out the Russian Duma for their recent resolution calling on the Russian executive to recognized the independence of LPR+DPR. Issues a slap to the nations that withdrew their personnel from the OSCE's SMM.
02:24:55 [Interesting]: Russia (2).
02:32:00 [Interesting]: USA (2). Mrs Ah-Um returns.
02:34:13 [Interesting]: Ukraine. Makes some valid points, but undermines the presentation by wheeling out old failed diplomatic arguments and demanding that some parties do things which are not required of them in MA2 when it is Ukraine which has been resisting it.
02:53:28 [Interesting]: Germany. A very calm and professional delivery of a position very similar to France's.
02:58:48 Russia (3). Respond's to Ukraine's tired argument.
Analysis
On the one hand, nothing really happened, with the exception that the vast majority of participants support that MA2 is the non-violent solution to the internal conflict in eastern Ukraine. The rest of the "nothing" is the USA+UK with support from Norway talking up the threat of war. France and Germany take their roles as key facilitators of the implementation of MA2, call for calm and make small acknowledgment of tensions coming from the different sides to the negotiations.
[Update 2022-04-26]: I missed this statement by the Kenyan representative. It hinges on one very carefully placed word:
If multilateralism is to be reborn into a system that delivers sustained peace to all, the most powerful states ...
I leave the readership to consider what is being said. [End update].
The two big statements were first from USA and then by China.
Mr Blinken's statement runs in three parts beginning with what the executive leadership wishes to be broadcast on the evening news, then [01:14:59] actually acknowledging that there are issues at play at the geopolitical level and finally issuing a threat.
The news segment is quite jaw dropping. All of the wild unsubstantiated alarmist threats that the USA has issued which have been amplified by the USA's and UK's media are re-issued. It is shameless propaganda, a triple-down on narrative assertion. Please read it, if you can stomach it. The key narrative points are [emphasis added]:
Russia has amassed more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine’s borders
as Russia takes steps down the path to war and reissued the threat of military action
Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack. This could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine
It could be a fabricated so-called “terrorist” bombing inside Russia
the attack is planned to begin
When he moves to the "issues at hand", the following statements are included:
If Russia is prepared to sit with the Ukrainian Government and work through the process of implementing these commitments, our friends in France and Germany stand ready to convene senior-level discussions in the Normandy Format to settle these issues.
Progress toward resolving the Donbas crisis through the Minsk Agreements can reinforce the broader discussions on security issues that we’re prepared to engage in with Russia, in coordination with our Allies and partners.
The first point is a careful misrepresentation. The negotiations for political settlement, which means working out the finer details for implementation of MA2 are between Ukraine, representatives from LPR+DPR and the OSCE. Russia has no role in this. Once political compromises have been agreed, the "finer details", they need to be implemented and for this the parties will need the support of the regional community and that is where the Normandy Format comes in including, beyond Ukraine, France, Germany and Russia.
The second point is the acknowledgment by USA that there are bigger issues at play.
The threat, or trap if you like, is the final point:
So let me make this simple. The Russian Government can announce today – with no qualification, equivocation, or deflection – that Russia will not invade Ukraine. State it clearly. ... In the coming days, the world will remember that commitment – or the refusal to make it.
If Russia make this commitment it would deny itself the ability to come to the aid in a "Responsibility to Protect" capacity its own citizens in eastern Ukraine. Worse than that, it would neuter the main deterrent to Ukraine launching an attack on LPR+DPR, and thus condemning their citizens to this outcome.
Mr Blinken may think that we are all stupid. I respectfully disagree.
A Chinese Earthquake
As for the earthquake, it is a challenge to put this in context. If one carefully listening to and transcribes both of the recent U.N. Security Council meetings on Ukraine one can learn much about the cultural background and level of professionalism of different nations U.N. diplomats. I cite India as a classic example. There is no bravado or hyperbole. The institution is treated with respect, and all of its expected protocols are followed very carefully, dotting every 'i' and crossing every 't'. The positions delivered are very subtle and nuanced. One must already have a decent understanding of existing diplomatic positions and a fairly detailed knowledge of recent geopolitical developments to be able to understand them. This is in no way an attempt to obfuscate the position. They are speaking to an audience, the worlds other diplomats, on behalf of their government.
China has been very similar. Still in this meeting's address there is the precise following of protocol. The address positions her (China) with Russia. She acknowledges the recent Heads of State diplomacy and gives credit to Russia with "Russian Federation's recent diplomatic engagement with France, Germany and other European countries at the leadership level". She then focuses on the greater European security issue hoping that a "negotiated, balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism will provide a solid foundation for lasting peace and stability across Europe". She then declares that she wishes that NATO's unity would fracture towards individual national interest with "We trust that European countries will take independent and strategic decisions in line with their own interests."
That last statement is very undiplomatic, especially for one as cautious and professional as China. That, however, is just the launching pad:
Everything happens for a reason. NATO's enlargement is not an issue that can be bypassed when dealing with the current tensions related to the Ukraine issue. NATO's continuous expansion in the wake of the cold war runs counter to the trend of our times. That is, to maintain common security, one country's security cannot be obtained at the expense of another country's security. By the same token, regional security cannot be guaranteed through 'muscling up' or even expanding a military block. This applies as much to the European region as to regions of the world. There is one country which refuses to renounce its cold war mentality. It says one thing and does another. In order to seek absolute military superiority it has been ??clanning up?? in the Asia Pacific region creating some trilateral or quadrilateral small circles, or cliques, bent of provoking confrontation.
What it is doing would only throw the Asia Pacific into division and turmoil and seriously threaten the region's peace and stability to the detriment of the countries in the region while gaining nothing for itself either. China urges the countries concerned to learn from history [and] subscribe to the notion of comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, adhere to the approach of enhancing mutual trust and setting disputes through dialogue and consultation and do more to contribute to world peace and regional stability.
Blinken's initial statements were jaw-dropping, but were this statement not issued by an immaculately dressed gentleman behind a sign that said "China" on a video issued by the United Nations one would be left doubting what one had heard.
Ukraine’s Contribution
While Ukraine's representative does make the odd misleading claim and raises the crazy issue that USSR lives on, essentially because Russia still has the privileges of permanent seat on the Council, he does make two valid points. Firstly, regarding the Russian Duma's recent vote requesting the executive to recognize LPR+DPR and Russia emphasizing that this is merely a request, this is exactly what happened in 2008 during the Georgia/South Ossetia/Abkhasia troubles. Its not a direct comparison, but it is quite fair enough to draw the parallel. Of greater validity is the criticism of Russia for her naval exercises in the Black Sea which have disrupted civilian shipping which effects commerce.
Unfortunately for Ukraine their representative later, when presenting documents signed by the then relevant Russian Ambassador, repeatedly describes this person as "Ambassador of Putin". This indicates letting one's emotions get the better of one, which is anathema to diplomatic practice. He, like his Albanian counterpart before him, has lost all respect of his colleagues.
But, didn't the Chinese diplomat just break the rules too? Yes, and no. China has one of the largest, most disciplined and well trained diplomatic services on the planet. Being China's representative to the U.N. is a huge privilege and responsibility. One can trust that every single word that was issued was read without error in their statement. It was not "emotional", it was precise and deliberate. Actually, many an other diplomat may wish that they were allowed to say things so bold.
PS:
A helpful consideration of potential future outcomes for the Ukraine dispute has been provided by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas Davies.
I implore my readership in the coming days and weeks to make use of the OSCE’s SMM daily reports on ceasefire violations across both sides of the line of contact in Ukraine. It is one of the few independent sources we have on local military activity. Bookmark it!! Each brief summary gives the total number of violations and how many are explosive. This alone gives a trend over time of activity, though does not directly inform who is firing. Do not fall for panicked reports of attacks on X. Look at the broader numbers.
Sources
Security Council on Ukraine | United Nations, United Nations, 2022-02-17
Remarks by Secretary Antony J. Blinken at the UN Security Council on Russia’s Threat to Peace and Security, United States [of America] Mission to the United Nations, 2022-02-17
What Is Going to Happen in Ukraine?, Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J. S. Davies, AntiWar, 2022-02-18
Updates to Sources
US Doubles Downs on Russian ‘Invasion’ Rhetoric at UN Amid Signs of Donbass Offensive, Joe Lauria, ConsortiumNews, 2022-02-17
Russia & Ukraine: The Critical Hour – A Light Conversation on Dark Subjects, Ray McGovern, his website, 2022-02-19
contains a link to Ray’s interview on The Critical Hour
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