Published: 2024-09-16
Updated 2024-09-17: Well, that was quick! An update has been added.
This article and podcast extends yesterday’s article.
Waiting in Washington
The most significant event of the last two days, apart from Ansar Allah’s hypersonic missile, is the silence from Washington after Knight of the Realm and UK Prime Minister Starmer visited the US capital with expired Ukrainian president Zelensky. A confluence of circumstances is forcing extended behind the scenes wrangling within the centers of power in the US.
Before addressing those it is instructive to note that the petitioning which Zelensky is submitting to his US/NATO masters is now being titled as a "business plan" ... for victory, or some other qualifier.
“I will share (the points of the plan - ed.) with Biden. It's about security. It's about geopolitical place for Ukraine. It's about very strong military support available for us, and that we have to be free to use one or another item. It's about economic support decisions, which will be, I think, interesting,” the Head of State said.
RBC-Ukraine (emphasis by YesXorNo)
Zelensky is exposing his and his backers' sensitivities. US President Biden’s request for $6 billion for Ukraine confirms it. Ukraine is broke (see S&P's rating and the Eurobond default). The financial sensitivity has been imposed, despite widespread sanctioning of Russia and other members of the non-G7 alliance by the US and EU. One key aspect of Russia's war of attrition against NATO in Ukraine is pitting Russia's national economy against Ukraine's and its partners'. Zelensky is admiting economic defeat. Note Germany's current position, as outlined below.
From this reveal, we can conclude that as well as the military component, Russia is also winning the economic aspect of the conflict. Interestingly, Ukraine's budget for 2025 does not include the funding of a national election. Whoever is in charge is likely to continue marshall law under which Ukraine's citizens continue to suffer. Note that early in the war Russia held referenda in all 4 of the contested oblasts of eastern Ukraine (Lugansk, Donestsk, Zaporozhe and Kherson).
The upcoming BRICS+ conference in Kazan may well demonstrate just how well Russia and its partners are winning the geopolitical aspect of the conflict with NATO/G7 too.
Unstable Partners
Israel is trying to drag the US into a war with Lebanon (Hibollah). It is also at risk of a civil war between the settler movement militia under the influcence of Ben Gvir and the national armed forces nominally under the control of Netanyahu. This conflict was exposed when soldiers who'd been Abu Graib'ing Palestinian prisoners were "rescued" from police confinement by the settler militias. "Prohibition and punishment" in accordance with the Genocide Convention by Yemen's Ansar Allah has damaged Israeli trade. A recent hypersonic (Mach 8.4) missile from Yemen pierced Israel's vaunted "Iron Dome" near Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion airport. Israel is threatened from two sides, both without and within.
The upcoming US election has partially split donors vying for control of the new administration which, according to commitments from both candidates, will bring in new personnel to replace the key positions of National Security Adviser (Sullivan) and Secretary of State (Blinken).
US partners are over the map. The UK is pushing for an escalation in the war in Ukraine, having reportedly masterminded the NATO sponsored invasion of Russia in the Kursk oblast by predominanently Ukrainian troops using NATO funds, armaments, tactics, command and intelligence data. Germany has largely tapped out of continued funding for Project Ukraine due to a constitutional limitation which has been partially tripped by the US destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline. Its sabotage raised energy prices sufficiently for German industry to lose its profits. The recent closure in Germany of a Volkwagen factory is demonstrative. France has an inoperable parliament largely due to maneuvring by President Macron to prevent Marie Le Pen's National Rally winning in the snap elections which he called this past northern summer. This occurred close to the snap elections which former British Prime Minister Sunak called in the UK in which the Tories were whalloped. In summary, the lead European NATO allies are pulling in different directions or have none.
Divisions and Targets
Within the US tug-of-war are those wishing to leave Project Ukraine to the European's to clean up and get down to the real job of starting a war with China. Of course, the US-Israeli lobby are far more interested in the war with Hizbollah because that, they expect, will draw Iran into a region-wide war which nobody wants (except the Zionists) because it will threaten global energy supply.
The targets are marked: Russia, Iran, China. India, the last of the four nations which intersect both BRICS+ and SCO’s full membership, is not so visible on the radar, but the recent coup in Bangladesh to India's east, the fomenting of trouble in Myanmar to Bangladesh's east, and the coup against Imran Khan in Pakistan show that the CIA has India well marked.
The challenge is prioritization in the last few months of a US Presidential selection campaign, with all of the constructed messaging that entails.
Outside of the G7/NATO orbit the leaders of the BRICS+/SCO block recently met in St. Petersburg. Pepe Escobar reports:
Shoigu for his part confirmed, “We are ready to expand cooperation between our security councils.” The deal will be signed by both Presidents soon. Moreover, Shoigu added that Iran’s entry into BRICS advances cooperation among members to form a “common and indivisible architecture of strategic security and a fair polycentric world order.”
Now compare it with the new collective West “strategy” – adopted by U.S., UK, France and Germany: another sanctions wave against Iran related to the case of Iranian missiles transferred to Russia.
Ahmed Bakhshaish Ardestani, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, confirmed early this week that Iran is sending missiles and drones to Russia as part of their defense agreements.
But the heart of the story is that these missiles are Russian anyway; they are just being produced in Iran.
They core message was from Shoigu: "common and indivisible architecture of strategic security". This is what Russia has desired for years. Their dual draft treaty documents to NATO and the US in December 2021, a couple of months before Russia entered the then civil war in Ukraine, were about the exact same topic. Neither the US nor NATO even responded to those proposals. Russia is negotiating with nations which will.
Why pause, Lord?
One speculation of the US military's hesistancy to join the warmongers for firing long range NATO (US, UK, French and not German) missiles into Russia has been Russia's ability to destroy at least some of the key US satellites which produce its targeting data. Russia conducted a successful test of its satellite attacking missiles on 2021-11-14, destroying its own defunct satellite 3 months before it entered the Ukrainian civil war which was started by the coup government in Ukraine which the US had installed. Russia has demonstrated its capability. This partially harks back to the 2002 "Millenium Challenge" US war game, the largest of its type ever conducted. In it the red team, playing China, launched a pre-emptive strike against the advancing blue (US) forces winning the war game on day two of the alotted fourteen. Later war games mimicking to the same essential nation states have seen the defending team attack the offensive team's communications systems. This removes the real-time coordinated command which is fundamental to any informed military operation.
On the fields of former Ukraine the Armed Forces of the Russia Federation have demonstrated their excellence in ground based warfare, the type of engagement which satellite deprived militaries must devolve to if they lose their satellite based intelligence data. One can huff and puff all one wants, but if there's no air one can't blow anyone's house down.
That speculation has been partially replaced by the shock and horror of Ansar Allah firing a Mach 8.4 hypersonic missile which just missed Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv. When last the US ratched up the tension with Russia President Putin warned the West that it too could arm proxies. They questions it is asking the US now is how many of your enemies do you want to have hypersonic missiles? Or, to put it another way, how many aircraft carriers do you want to lose?
Official News
Lastly, I have no idea why people do not read TASS, Russia's official (hence government) news agency. One can recall all of the uproar about RT being banned from Europe and US citizens being harrassed by the US Dept. of Justice for essentially publishing at RT. RT is fine, but TASS is the government outlet and if you want to know what the Russian Military or Foreign Affairs department has to say, it is an important place to go. Many knowledgable commentators have expressed that they take the Russian Ministry of Defense's figures for the conflict seriously. Politically, Russia under-counted its own casualties by using Progozhin's "Wagner Group" which were technically not Russian military. But, their figures for enemy casualties have been acknowledged as reliable, as opposed to the complete hogwash coming out of Kiev.
To further suggest TASS as a useful outlet, a collection of recent short articles is included in Sources.
Update 2024-09-17
"After careful consideration, we expanded our ongoing enforcement against Russian state media outlets. Rossiya Segodnya, RT and other related entities are now banned from our apps globally for foreign interference activity," a spokesperson at Meta said in a statement.
reports TASS. :-)
Meta Corporation blocks RT, Rossiya Segodnya accounts on its platforms — NBC - World - TASS, N/A, TASS, 2024-09-17
Maps
[Russia destroyed a bridge over the main railway lines in Pokrovsk. They are attacking every bridge over the railway as a matter or course.]
[Battles for all three of the mining towns in the north-south strip are being fought.]
[South of Prokrovsk is Kurakhove, the logistics gateway to southern Donetsk (towards Vugledar etc.. Russia is pushing towards it to block that transport route and trap Ukrainian soldiers in the pocket to the northeast.]
[Russia has recently advanced into territory to the north and then south of Chasiv Yar to potentially launch dual attacks on its flanks.]
[The Siversk front has been static on ground movement. The graphic shows the last 6 weeks artillery, drone and missile targeting. Russia is expected to push from both the south and east.]
[Dima again showed a new munition developed by Ukraine — a drone which carries a controlled thermite reaction dumping molten iron of 2400 degrees Celsius on those below as it flies around above. Quite impressive. See 00:13:00 in the ‘q4e5j245xG0’ video.]
[The curved blue line is a river, which when Russia crosses it threatens the entire northern section of Ukraine’s invasion. The green lines show the key roads and junction. The circles are around the main junction, and another on a town further south. The Ukrainian forces are in serious trouble.]
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Sources
Zelenskyy names key points of victory plan to show Biden, Oleksandra Zimko, RBC-Ukraine, 2024-09-15
Biden Asks Congress To Extend Nearly $6 Billion in Ukraine Aid, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-09-15
Israel Drops Leaflets Ordering Residents To Flee Southern Lebanon, Jason Ditz, Antiwar, 2024-09-15
lol
Houthis Launch Long-Range Missile Into Central Israel, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-09-15
Really? If 12 minute flight time, then the speed was Mach 8.4 based on 2 000 Km from San’aa to Tel Aviv.
No Word on Long-Range Strikes in Russia After Biden-Starmer Meeting, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-09-15
The silence is deafening
Zelensky Complains That His Western Backers Won't Discuss Shooting Down Russian Missiles, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-09-15
More lol
Biden Admin Decides - For Now - Against Long Range Strikes On Russia, b., Moon of Alabama, 2024-09-14
Manipur escalation draws attention to Myanmar, M. K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, 2024-09-10
Collapsing Empire: RIP US Aircraft Carriers, Kit Klarenberg, Kit’s Newsletter, 2024-09-05
Russia destroys satellite in ASAT test, Jeff Foust, Space News, 2021-11-15
Yes, Russia can destroy satellites.
BRICS, the Rise of China and How the Hegemon Buried the Concept of "Security", Pepe Escobar, The Unz Review, 2024-09-14
"We are not fools", Zelensky, YesXorNo, 2024-09-15
Some news from the long ignored TASS
Russia's continued offensive and Ukraine's losses in the Kursk region - Military & Defense - TASS, N/A, TASS, 2024-09-15
Russian aviation defeats reserves of seven Ukrainian brigades in Sumy Region - Military & Defense - TASS, N/A, TASS, 2024-09-15
Russian forces destroy two Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jets in 24 hours — defense ministry - Military & Defense - TASS, N/A, TASS, 2024-09-15
Russian air defenses destroy 29 Ukrainian drones over seven regions overnight - Military & Defense - TASS, N/A, TASS, 2024-09-15
Ukrainian forces lost up to 520 troops in Battlegroup West zone of responsibility - Military & Defense - TASS, N/A, TASS, 2024-09-14
Russian forces consolidating gains near Kupyansk, military expert says - Russian Politics & Diplomacy - TASS, N/A, TASS, 2024-09-14
Videos
Pepe Escobar： Endless Wars - A Glimpse of the Future [-DJFCDuegmo], Alkhorshid interviews Escobar, Dialogue Works, 2024-09-15
Col. Wilkerson： All War Games Between China and US Lead to Nuclear Attacks [kY77p3Kpy3I], The Real News, 2016-02-22
Harvest Time🔥 Zelensky'\''s Crazy Plan💥 Hypersonic - The Last Argument🎖 Military Summary For 2024.09.15 [q4e5j245xG0], Dima, Military Summary, 2024-09-15
Chasiv Yar Caught In Pincers🎖Breakthrough At Makiivka⚔️Endless Zelensky💥Military Summary 2024.09.15 [eVuLIiWAT14], Dima, Military Summary, 2024-09-15
Copyleft: CC0
We are not fools -- Extended