WTF is going on in Niger?

Post colonial rebellion?

[One of the maps by Cultures of West Africa, this one showing borders and regional cultures recently, in 1980.]

Published: 2023-08-10

Updated 2023-08-19: Minor update (see the end section) and a source.

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Introduction

Seeing as I know SFA about West Africa or Niger in particular, I took this as an open research opportunity. Please find below a list of resources on West Africa and Niger. There is a also a news section for recent events and a People section for the ousted Niger President Mohamed Bazoum and the leader of the coup Leader of the Presidential Guards General Abdourahamane Tchiani.

The TL;DR is that I still have no idea about the causes. What is obvious is that Niger is important (mostly to France, though also the US, as we shall discover) because Chocoloate Cookie Coup Girl Nuland just visited.

This article attempts to provide a collection of resources on Niger for people who'd like to add a little background to the current foreign intervention in Niger's internal coup.

Overviews

The site Cultures of West Africa provides a map over time of the Kingdoms in the west African region which is instructive. Use the buttons below the image to choose which moment in time you wish to see.

The CIA's Factbook summary of Niger is excellent for a fast run-down on Niger describing all essential topics. Recall that the CIA's intelligence groups don't run coups (theoretically) and are pretty good at what they do. I recommend starting with their summary after the cultural history.

Niger has an interesting government structure in which a small number of seats in the single house of parliament are reserved for its foreign citizens, or diaspora:

5 seats reserved for Nigeriens living abroad - l seat per continent - elected in single-seat constituencies by simple majority vote

Economics and Resources

Niger has plenty of resources, particularly Gold, Oil and Uranium (and Thorium), and requires investment to build its economy. One could say that it is a classic colonized country, by the French this time, but completely in line with the general practice of the Caucasian, Christian Colonizers; it is resource rich, its cultural history is under-appreciated, its economy is poorly developed, and where it is developed its largely controlled by colonial (French) interests.

Niger is ripe to be assisted in developing its economy and taking more national control of its resources. Thus, it is a potential playground (plaything) between the competing geopolitical forces currently aligned, the European colonizers as represented by US/NATO and the rising Asia/Non-Aligned groups represented by China/Russia/BRICS/SCO with their corresponding "investment" banks of the IMF/World Bank and the New Development Bank headed by former Brazilian President Dilma Roussef.

Niger's economy suffered during the COVID period though its economy has recovered well since. Niger exports far more in value than it imports, thus its economy should be able to support investment in the nation. View what it exports as what other people want, and what it imports as what its people need. These items describe rather well the lack of economic development in Niger. It exports mining products and argicultural products while importing manufacturing (e.g cars) and higher value products (e.g vaccines).

The standout resource is Uranium. Niger for Uranium production is a little like Ukraine for wheat. Niger is at the bottom of the group of large producers of Uranium, being 7th, producing approximately 2 000 of the world's 48 000 tonnes of Uranium Oxide (U₃O₈), or roughly 5%. Please see the excellent information from the World Nuclear Association on Uranium stocks, usage and markets.

Geography, Human and Natural

The people of Niger are overwhelmingly Muslim (over 90%). There are three dominant 'tribes' one at 53% (Hausa) and the next two making up around the 32% (Zarma/Songhai and Tuareg), with a collection of other smaller cultural/ethnicity groups. The languages are French (from colonial influence), Hausa (the dominant ethnicity) and Djerma (which I assume to come from at least one of the other large ethnic groups).

Niger is large and land locked. It is dominantly desert/arid land.

[Niger’s administrative regions and capital, and its neighbours.]

Its capital, Niamey, in the southwest sits on the all important Niger river and has a tropical climate.

What is ECOWAS?

See the sources. Its a west African trade organisation. See the report by the US Trade Representative.

ECOWAS is also a local international organisation which has been “leveraged” by the US to “invest” in its local military presence in the name of counter-terrorism. There is no doubt whatsoever that various paramilitary groups operating in west Africa have caused immense suffering due to horrific attacks on the local poplulations.

The US journalist expert on the buildup of US forces in the region is Nick Turse who has been reporting on this for well over a decade. Turse used to publish regularly at Tom’s Dispatch and is currently a contributing writer for The Intercept.

The People of the Coup

General Tchiani was trained at the National School of Active Officers, in Thiès, Senegal and has served in UN peacekeeping missions and was decorated for being the first officer at the site to secure the crime scene of the impact of UTA Flight 772 which was caused by an in-flight suitcase bomb in 1989. On top of Tchiani's three UN Peacekeeper missions he has also served combatting drug trafficking in several regions of Niger. He can thus be viewed as a "reliable" man trained by the French or those which replaced them in Senegal. He was given the role of Leader of the Presidential Guards in 2011. The RFI (Radio France Internationale) article mentions that some sources see him as too close to the former President.

Ousted President Bazoum replaced two- (5 years each) term President Issoufou in what was the "first handover of power between elected leaders since independence from France in 1960" (quoting Al Jazeera). ex-President Issoufou accused, without producing any evidence, Bazoum of election fraud in the forms of "theft and stuffing of ballot boxes and threats against voters". "The impoverished country in recent years has been struggling with armed group attacks that have spilled over from Mali in the west and Nigeria in the southeast."

The coup seems pretty straight forward. The leader of the presidential guards didn't like the president.

Asking a Few Questions

I posit that apart from the French, almost nobody outside of west Africa cares a tinkers curse who the President of Niger is. But Vixen Nuland has just show up so obviously something important is at stake. I don't think its 5% of the world Uranium supply, or the gold or oil either, though perhaps all combined.

The first question is why did Mr. Nice Guy, the General oust the President? What did Bazoum do that was so egregious as to demand this response? The most important question is what is it that the office of the president controls which is so important to the US?

The US has been building up its forces in Africa generally, as well documented by Nick Turse over the years. Indeed AFRICOM was only created a few years back. The US has two military bases in Niger (according to WaPo), which is a major reason for their involvement.

Niger is very large and though land locked, has its capital Niamey on the all important Niger river. Niger is geographically strategic.

The US does not even rate as a significant trade partner for Nigeria, which is why I dont think the resources are the issue (Uranium, Gold, Oil etc.).

Perhaps the key question is with whom is the General aligned? Has the deposed president changed policies which shift alliances to the like of the US and to the dislike of the local power faction which to which the General is aligned? When were the two US bases approved by Niger? Was it under the now deposed president? Remember, Niger is a muslim nation which is still terribly underdeveloped. As a commentator from the Democracy Now! interview believe notes, the local population are seeing investment in military facilities pouring into the country both from the US and French while their infrastructure remains extremely poor.

The current US involvement looks like it is based on defending their investment in the large drone base in Niger (Airbase 201, or whatever its called). Nick Turse has seen it, and says it cost 110 million to build and requires 20 to 30 million USB to maintain each year. This drone base is the US surveillance hub in West Africa. Drones launched from it can also carry weaponry. The supposition that this drone base is the key reason for the US involvement is re-inforced by the fact that the US has not yet described the obvious coup d’etat as such. This is because once that is done, various forms of aid, including military aid are immediately affected. Thus, this deliberate lack of calling a spade a spade (or a coup a coup) is motivated by the US regime’s desire to continue to fund various programs, with “military assistance” likely very high among them.

If the locals are getting uppity about continued colonial rule, as seems the case in neighbouring Burkino Faso and Mali, the US reponse may be not just about Niger, but about an emerging collection of rebellious west African nations.

The usual fools (Blinkenlights and Nuland) seem to be running some theory that Wagner (the Russian private military company, akin to Eric Prince’s Blackwater, now Academi) is somehow involved. Let them produce some evidence. What did happen recently was a meeting of African leaders in Russia. I dont think Russia’s got anything at all to do with this. But, as noted Niger is waiting for significant investment in developing its economy and the Chinese may see an opportunity. Getting rid of a US drone base in the process would be nice cherry-on-top. But, that would probably be run via the New Development Bank, and BRICS would demand that South Africa approve. So, its all theoretical.

This looks local.

Update

As I mentioned at the end of the Week in Review podcast which followed the publication of this article, I see the people of Niger being largely pissed off at the increased presence in Niger of the US and French allegedely in response to “terrorism”. Their response has been completely ineffective but the show of all of the money and influence is there. Meanwhile the people need roads, drinking water, schools and hospitals.

This is what I think this is about from a “person on the street” perspective.

Jimmy Dore found someone who held a similar view. I’ve added this new reference at the end of sources.

Sources

Overviews

Niger (Summary), The World Factbook, CIA, updated 2023-08-08

Niger, Observatory of Economic Complexity

Niger’s Top 10 Exports, Daniel Workman, World's Top Exports, 2022-09-13 (based on source data accesses)

Cultures of West Africa

• Wait, or use the 'buttons' at the bottom to see the changes in the ruling cultural groups over time in West Africa.

Niger, Wikipedia

Niger (the whole article, not just the summary linked above), The World Factbook, CIA

western Africa, Britannica

Geography

Landscapes of West Africa: A Window on a Changing World, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, USGS

What is ECOWAS?

Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), US Trade Representative

Economic Community of West African States, Wikipedia

ECOWAS, Their website

Uranium

Uranium Markets, World Nuclear Association

World Uranium Mining Production, World Nuclear Association

News

After Years of U.S. Military Aid, Terror Attacks Still Rise in Niger, Nick Turse, The Intercept, 2023-04-02

Report: Niger Junta Told Nuland They’d Kill Bazoum If There’s Military Intervention, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-08-10

Niger general Tchiani named head of transitional government after coup, Staff, Al Jazeera, 2023-07-28

Nigeria-led regional bloc ready to flex its muscle in Niger, Peter Beaumont, The Guardian, 2023-08-04

Niger is slipping away from the West, Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post, 2023-08-09

Will Nigeria Reclaim Its Role as a Regional Power?, Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, Foreign Policy, 2023-08-02

Niger’s Coup Is a Turning Point for Africans, Howard W. French, Foreign Policy, 2023-08-08

People

(deposed) President Mohamed BAZOUM, Wikipedia

Mohamed Bazoum (1960- ), Blackpast, David Zuber, 2022-05-15

Mohamed Bazoum declared Niger's new president, Al Jazeera, 2021-02-23

General Abdourahamane Tchiani, Wikipedia

Who is General Tchiani, head of Niger's new military government?, RFI (Radio France Internationale), 2023-07-29

US Bases and French Military Presence

Blowback in Africa: U.S.-Trained Officer Overthrows Pro-U.S. Leader in Niger, U.S. Drone Base Site, Amy Goodman interviews Nick Turse and others, Democracy Now, 2023-08-04

Blinken, Wagner eyes Niger. Shoigu warns Poland. Ukraine's Lancet problem. Trudeau Oppenheimer. U/1, Alex Christoforou, Alex Christoforou, 2023-08-09

• Christoforou outlines the Blinkenlights/New-Land insinuation that Russia/Wagner are involved at the beginning of the daily report.

“You Won’t Turn Niger Into Another Libya!” – African Leaders, Jimmy Dore and guests, The Jimmy Dore Show, 2023-08-17