Published: 2024-02-28
Previous episode.
Yes joins Jock for an afternoon walk by the foreshore with Jock's mutt, Smooth.
Jock: How ya doin', Yes?
Yes: Maintaining my sanity against the odds. You?
[Yes gives Smooth a rough under the chin.]
Jock: Could be worse. Work's manageable, Heather's well and Iain's just started Uni. Gimme the news.
Yes: Genocide or war?
J: Spare me, Gaza. What's happening in Ukraine?
Y: Interestingly, Jock, it follows on nicely from last time. Recall that idea that the CIA is about to take over Project Ukraine?
J: Yeah, Budanov, wasn't it? The head of the SBU.
Y: Correct. The second anniversary of the totally unprovoked Russian 'Full Scale' invasion of Ukraine event occurred and a total of zero US dignitaries attended the muted celebrations in Keev. Instead, van der Crazy, Trudeau and Meloni turned up, with 'still looking for a job' Clown Boris.
Two defense pacts not worth the paper they were written on were signed as 'Elensky waited for more wasted money from the US and his new head of the AFU lost their stronghold in the east, Avdiivka. But, that is not the news.
J: Out with it, Yes.
Y: The New York Times just published a 10 000 word puff piece on the CIA's support for the SBU over the last decade.
J: Really?!
Y: Yips, and on that anniversary who should turn up at the Warmonger's Think Tank, CSIS, but the mid-wife of the 2014 Ukraine coup, and arch Deepstater, Vixen Nuland-ski, to give an update to the loyalists about what's coming for the proxy war against the perennial enemy, the coveted land, Russia.
J: Juicy?
Y: Slow down, Jock. Let me build this.
The MSM lead up to this is the cheer-leading at the Munich Security Conference, headlining the death in Russian custody of irrelevant Navalny. This was followed by the rout at Avdiivka which in turn forced the issuance of a change of narrative about the prospects for Ukraine for the coming election year. Its all about surviving until 2025 when the next 'Spring, Summer, sometime' offensive will magically save the day. The motive, of course, is to save Biden. Naturally, both are busted arse strategies, but these people couldn't organize a piss up in brewry.
J: Isn't there some battle over $60 billion?
Y: What's the line? "The war party never loses"?
The interesting thing seems to be not so much the money but what is to be done with it. Up front, it just continues to hide the fact that the US economy is wacko. It is being propped up by the government investing tax dollars in arms manufacturing, which hides the problem, keeps the 1% happy and does nothing to help the 99%.
But, its the restrictions on the funding which are interesting. Apparently, parts of it are authorized and delayed until 2025.
J: And?
Y: Its a contingency for losing the election. The funds are pre-authorized and the new president will be unable, or at least it will be politically difficult, to prevent their use. It's an end run around the executive control of foreign policy and it spans a potential change in administration. I suspect that it is also, unconsitutional.
J: Oooooo. That's nasty.
Y: There are other factors too. Ritter reckons that much of the production being funded will be used to backfill US armories rather than Ukrainian ones. This might seem a bit strange, as when would the Congress ever deny filling US armories? Unless they are more depleted than is being let on. This would make it political.
But, none of this is the big news.
J: Here cometh Nuland-ski, no?
Y: You know me too well. Which magic word did she repeatedly use at the CSIS pow-wow?
J: Ouch?
Y: Close. Asymmetric.
J: Well, hello, guerilla warfare! That is news. Did they put Budanov in charge of the AFU?
Y: No, Bryen got that bit wrong. But, they had to get rid of Zaluzhnyi who was too much of a military man and actually understood the difference between possible and suicidal. So, Vixen picked Syrskyi who is hated by the troops. He achieved the rout of his own forces straight away at Avdiivka, which shows that his choice was not about military capability but political expedience.
J: I suppose Bryen was a bit silly thinking they'd move Budanov. Head of the SBU is exactly where they want him to run an 'asymmetic' campaign. Its just the CIA at one arm removed. Or ... how removed are they?
Y: None, or so we are informed by that 10 000 word puff piece. Interestingly, it also runs out known-to-be-false narratives, attempting to blow the breath of life into the Russia Goat Hoax.
J: Figures. Keep the narrative, no matter how dead it is, alive.
In Ukraine, they've got nowhere else to go, have they? If that rout indicates the state of the AFU, what with all their lack of everything, then high-tech guerrila warfare is all they can do.
Y: So it seems. High tech, kinetic terrorists is the new plan. Good money for the missile manufacturers and trouble for the Russians.
J: Do you think so? How much trouble?
Y: Okay, I was being a little flippant there.
The military target looks like the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, which will piss them off no end until they re-calibrate their missile defenses. One can expect more British Royal Navy operated water based drone attacks and other activities to damage Russian naval capital assets. Who knows what else they'll come up with, apart from continuing the SBU's previous terrorist attacks inside Russia.
J: Assuming Russia can handle this annoyance, though perhaps at times a serious one, how do you think they'll handle this change?
Y: Why would they change? They control all the pieces.
They need to complete the securing or liberation of the Dontesk oblast, and the victory in Avdiivka goes a long way to achieving that. The calculations of military analysts is that Russia is essentially unstoppable at this point. They'll do what they want, where they want, when they want.
There are signs of a build up, or preparation for one in Sumy, and other signs that Kharkov will be a target. Makes sense. Its the sister city of Belgorod and liberating it may result in the Ukies firing at their old city more and Belgorod less. And, it, with Sumy, completes the capture of the heights, the more valuable defensive territory. Apart from that, its all eyes on Mykolaiv and Odessa.
J: This was seen early in the war, wasn't it? That one of the key final bargaining chips would be whether rump Ukraine would have access to the Black Sea. Is this where its heading?
Y: Too hard to see. Its certainly a threat to a future Ukraine. The problem is that the people running the Ukrainian government don't give a shit about the future of Ukraine.
There are a whole bunch of factors at play. One should not forget that Russia needs to invest hugely in their new oblasts. These people and their infrastructure have endured a decade of civil war. They've joined Russia, and expect Russia to support and protect them. Russia's government has no option but to do this, because of the public pressure it has created upon itself. This, of course, is a very western way of looking at things. A more Russian one would be that these are our brothers and cousins and this is the right thing to do. Nonetheless, the care for and integration of these new oblasts will be a considerable drain, in the short term, on Russia's finances and resources.
J: So all this hype about Russia walking through Ukraine and into Poland is just that?
Y: Pure propaganda narrative. Russia is a land based empire. It integrates. It has tried forced coercion. It doesn't work and they know this. Integrating western Ukraine would never work, so they wont try. Plus, the key economic and cultural resources are in the south and east.
J: Prognosis?
Y: I cracked my crytal ball years ago, Jock. How about just looking at motives?
Russia has told us theirs; de-nazification and de-militarization. As for the US, Prof. Deisen names the current period an interregnum, a period of instabililty wherein the US's foreign policy robots blindly hope that they can return to the good ol' unipolar days while the dominant part of the world, in terms of people and economy, look to a return to a balance of power situation. Not as in the Cold War where there were just two, but one in which there are more of them. Their name for this is the Multipolar world, or order.
The West's support, explicit or implicit, for the genocide in Gaza is shredding the remaining legitimacy which it possessed to justify its unipolarity, or hegemony. We know where the power dynamic is going, the question is what other suffering is required to pass through the interregnum?
J: So, SNAFU?
Y: For the foreseeable future, yes.
Sources
Victoria Nuland: Two-Year Anniversary of Russia's Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine, Victoria Nuland, Center for Strategic International Studied, 2024-02-22
data
The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin, Adam Entous & Michael Schwirtz, New York Times, 2024-02-25
the puff piece
Ukraine Proxy War: US Resistance to Multipolar World is the Root of Current Conflicts (Glenn Diesen), Rattansi interviews Prof. Deisen, Going Underground TV, 2024-02-25
a very interesting interview
Y&J: The CIA to Take Over Project Ukraine, YesXorNo, 2024-01-26
Ukraine: Dazed and Dancing to Russia's Rhythm, YesXorNo, 2024-02-26
Ray McGovern:(SPECIAL) - How CIA Helps Ukraine Military, Napolitano interviews McGovern, Judging Freedom, 2024-02-26
Larry Johnson: Ukraine War Viewed from MOSCOW!, Napolitano interviews Johnson, Judging Freedom, 2024-02-26
Nasty surprises, asymmetric war. Nikki loses. Meloni, Elensky No.5. Annalena, sanctions don't work, Alex Christoforou, 2024-02-25
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