Published: 2024-01-26
Two old friends meet up for some noodles on Australia Day
Jock: So, what's up geopolitically, Yes?
Yes: The 'US Presidential Election Year' solution to the 'Ukraine has lost the proxy war against Russia' problem is to let the whole thing go silent or blame someone else.
J: Tell me something new, Yes.
Y: The CIA are taking over the operation.
J: What?! Now I need some evidence.
Y: Aaaah, there are are few dots to connect and then you decide if it passes your smell test. Ok?
J: Bring it.
Y: In December 2023 it became well understood that there were serious differences between Ukrainian President Zelensky and the head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Zaluzhny. While we're introducing people, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence is Kyrylo Budanov.
Last Monday, 22nd January, Zelensky made a ploy reported by Reuters, quote:
Zelenskiy said he was submitting legislation to parliament on dual citizenship, in what appeared a symbolic gesture on Unity Day, the anniversary of the shortlived 1919 unification of eastern and western Ukrainian lands in an independent state.
Zelenskiy also marked the day by issuing a decree protecting the rights and identity of some 4 million ethnic Ukrainians in Russia -- by far the largest diaspora group.
As part of the decree he also laid historical claim to various Russian oblasts neighbouring Ukraine as being Ukrainian. One may easily dismiss this as the rambling of a mad man on crack, but stick with me.
There have also been statements suggesting that the government of Ukraine move to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, which is in an old area known as Galicia.
These developments have all of the hallmarks of establishing a new narrative, of a broad diaspora in resistance, supporting a government in exile when the inevitable demise of the Armed Forces of Ukraine becomes publicly acknowledged.
Jock: Hang on, Yes. You're coming out of nowhere.
Yes: Bear with me, Jock.
On Wednesday 24th January a plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war was shot down with a Patriot missile while in Russian airspace over the border town of Belgorod.
This may be used as the mechanism to replace Zaluzhny with Budanov, which puts the CIA stooge in charge of the Ukraine's military.
J: You are still coming out of nowhere.
Y: Not me. Alex Christoforou. He mentioned the idea on his show from the 24th. It all got much more interesting the day after.
J: Okay, Christoforou's not an idiot. But, give it up, how more interesting?
Y: The Asia Times published a story with the same idea.
J: Just because some journo at Asia Times gets the same crazy idea as Christoforou doesn't change anything.
Y: Not a journo. A Substack author. Dr. Stephen Bryen. It was a re-publish.
J: Okay, so Christoforou and another Substacker like you have gone crazy. You did some research, didn't you?
Y: Would I spout shit like this without having looked into it, Jock?
J: Ok, Yes. That's rare. Gimme the summary.
Y: How about this. Quote:
The new Ukraine policy has been emerging over recent months. If understood correctly, the policy is designed to deal with the new reality that Ukraine will lose the war, and Ukraine's government may need to evacuate Kiev. Putting Budanov in effective control of the new policy, and the relocation of Ukraine's capital, probably to Lviv, is the bedrock of the policy. Operationally the policy will be to use special operations, assassinations, bombings and any other means, including blowing up a nuclear reactor, to punish the Russians and keep them off balance. Zelensky is already setting the stage saying Russia will blow up a nuclear reactor. The Russians are no doubt keenly aware that the target will be a reactor in western Russia and it will be Ukrainian saboteurs who undertake the mission.
Jock: Really? Who wrote this? Did you do any due diligence on this author?
Yes: Yeah. Dr. Stephen Bryen. You want his background?
J: Sure. This is right up the CIA ops wing's ally, isn't it? Mearsheimer was right. Its the Ukrainians that are suffering the most.
Y: So it would seem.
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Due Diligence
Dr. Stephen Bryen began his Substack publishing in Jan 2022. The first post mentions a blog that he used to run, the web domain (DNS) for which is no longer available (he’s most likely let it lapse).
A good example of Bryen's knowledge of military affairs is given in his piece on the Chinese ballon affair.
More Chinese Balloons!, Stephen Bryen, Weapons and Strategy, 2023-02-05
Other stuff
Stephen Bryen, Substack
Stephen Bryen, Center for Security Policy
Stephen Bryen, Hudson Institute
Essays in Technology, Security and Strategy Volume II, a paperback by Stephen Bryen and Shoshana Bryen, Amazon
Dr. Stephen Bryen: Russia and Ukraine: What’s Next?, Dr. Stephen Bryen is interviewed, Westminster Institute, uploaded 2022-02-06
Sources
Political Frictions Unsettle Ukraine as It Seeks More Military Support, Carlotta Gall, NYT, 2023-12-06
Zelensky Signs Decree on Russian Territories 'Historically Inhabited' by Ukrainians, no author, The Moscow Times, 2024-01-22
Ukraine's Zelenskiy hails diaspora, proposes dual citizenship, no author, Reuters, 2024-01-23
Rumors Ukrainian General Zaluzhny Will Soon be Fired --Replaced by GRU's Budanov, Stephen Bryen, Weapons and Strategy (substack), 2024-01-22
Ukraine: Zelensky may soon oust military chief Zaluzhny, Stephen Bryen, Asia Times, 2024-01-23
The IL-76 Shootdown By A US Patriot Missile Could Lead To Zaluzhny's Replacement With Budanov, Andrew Korybko, Andrew Korybko's Newsletter, 2024-01-24
They Knew It., Andrei Martyanov, Reminiscence of the Future ..., 2024-01-24
The idea did first cross Yes' radar due to Alex Christoforou:
US⧸UK, Yemen air strikes. Elensky, 6 Russian regions decree. Tusk in Kiev. Churchill origin story, Alex Christoforou, 2024-01-24
Kari Lake rejects AZ GOP bribe. Budanov in charge, capital Lviv. Hungary FM Szijjarto, death threat, Alex Christoforou, 2024-01-25
Copyleft: CC0
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I can't find a logical reason for the alleged new Ukronazi pursued pollicy of transferring the Banderastan government to Lvov, how's that gonna help them from being denazified?
All I can see is a future similar to that of the exiled Iraqi-Iranian MEK-jihadists (loyal to CIA and running terrorist training camps on their behalf), currently residing in Albania under constant "western" protection.
https://terrorspring.com/the-mek-in-albania/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/21/why-was-this-iran-dissident-group-raided-in-europe