A Potpourri of Military and Diplomatic Moves

Base building, military maneuvers and diplomatic dances

[Image: Central and Northern Africa, the Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula, with the locations of a Chinese and a potential Russian naval base highlighted.]

Published 2023-04-17

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Port Sudan and Bab-el-Mandeb

Over the last 24 hours both Dima (Military Summary) and Alex Christoforou mentioned the recent flare up of hostilites in Sudan. The current Sudanese government is a military junta and the conflict exists between different factions amongst the military. A simple analysis would be that Russia and partners are completing with NATO for influence over the territory.

The military background to the conflict is a long negotiation between the Sudanese (military) government and Russia over the construction of a Russian naval base in Port Sudan. Early this year that negotitation reached approval from the Sudanese after Russia agreed to provide more military assistance. Its formalisation is reported to await a transition to civilian rule. I have my suspicions of this claim from Associated Press. What does seem very likely is that the recent conflict in Sudan results from super-power tension over influence in Sudan, and particularly the Red Sea.

Two years ago while the potential Russian naval base was in the early phases of negotiation China reached a deal with Djibouti for its first foreign naval base. The small nation of Djibouti is just down the coast holding all of the western coastline at the narrow straight between Africa (Djibouti) and the Arabian Peninsula (Yemen). The strait is named Bab-el-Mandeb (باب المندب) which translates as the Gate of Lamentation.

[Image: the straight.]

This straight is divided by an island into two passages, with widths about 20 Km and 5 Km. It is obviously of extreme importance for international shipping and trade being the passage into and out of the Red Sea which leads to the Suez canal. The Chinese have done well to have a naval base right next to it. The Sudanese agreement for a Russian Naval base at Port Sudan would place the Russian base to the north on the western coast of the Red Sea at its approximate center.

One may guess that the USA and its NATO vassals found the Chinese base in Djibouti extremely annoying, but that combined with a Russian base at Port Sudan is intolerable.

Ukraine

Again, both Dima and Alex Christoforou reported a Ukrainian attack against civilian targets in Donetsk City during Orthodox Easter Sunday (yesterday). 20 missiles were fired with at least two of them striking in the vicinity of a major church Cathedral in Dontesk City. 6 people were injured and one woman died as they were attending the liturgy at around 4am local time. Note that Ukraine has recently been storming and burning Russian Orthodox churches and monasteries in parts of Ukraine under their control.

Dima has reported over the last week or so that Russia's actions in the north on the western border of Lugansk have prevented the normal rotation of troops stationed along the north-south frontline. The open ground between the frontline and their reserve positions leaves the Ukranian troops vulnerable to artillery fire if then attempt to cross.

Various artillery duels have been occuring in the south with Russian forces also targeting some larger towns in the rear which house the headquarters of numerous Ukrainian unites and their ammunition and other logistics depots.

There are two main focuses, the smaller of which is in the northwest of the parts of Donetsk held by its militia and Russian forces. This looks like quite a challenging area to assault with the town surrounded by high ground, largely held by Ukraine forces and a river separating the high ground from a forrest to the north. See Dima's recent whole of day summary videos for yesterday and the previous few days to learn more. The town is Belagorivka. It must be captured to advance to the major town to the west.

[Image: an annotated frame from Dima’s video for 2023-04-17 at 10:37 into the video.]

Without a doubt, the key focus is still Artyomovsk/Bakhut. Ukraine retain a pocket with some high building to the west of the railway line which is west of the town center. Wagner forces have captured both residential areas to the north and the south east of the remaining Ukrainian "stronghold". Dima repeats a Wagner report that Ukraine has amassed around 80 000 troops to "unblock" Bakmut, with attacks likely to be launch in multiple areas to the north and south of the town. These areas are currently held by Russian Army forces which are protecting Wagner group's forces who are engaged in the dangerous urban fighting.

Recent weather has been uncharacteristically wet for this time of year around Artyomovsk/Bakmut which has delayed any "unblocking" operations. This will surely change soon which places a little pressure on Wagner to dislodge the remaining Ukrainian forces before the ground dries. That being the case, they no doubt have confidence in the Russian Army units defending their flanks to the north and south and are likely to maintain their existing gradual, effective tactics. Time, in the end, is always on Russia and their allied forces' side.

China

Brian Berletic has reissued his refrain of the illegality and illogic of the current war rhetoric from the USA Executive and Legislature over the Chinese province of Taiwan. If you feel that something doesn't make sense about all this US war rhetoric, I highly recommend listening to The New Atlas' analysis. It is calm and professional. See Sources.

Diplomatic Moves

Andrei Martyanov issued a short article in which he displays his diplomatic awareness. He begins by explaining an axiom of diplomacy, that a representative speaks to their counterpart, foreign minister to foreign minister, head of state to head of state etc.. However, it is possible for an "upgrade" as Andei put it. In this case, it is always the nation wishing for a more senior official to speak with a lower one which initiates the "upgrade".

Mr Martyanov observes that the Chinese minister of defense went directly to speak with Russian president Putin, which is a clear upgrade. This follows the recent heads of state meeting between Russia and China. Andrei concludes that whatever military matters were discussed between Putin and Xi are now being put in place. He goes on to conclude that the "west" will start advertising and possibly believing that this is all about China supplying weapons to Russia. Andrei believes the opposite, as does Larry Johnson, that this is about high level military tech (i.e hypersonics) being transferred from Russia to China. Update: M. K.. Bhadrakumar (a retired senior Indian diplomat suggests that the tech may actually be long range (i.e ICMB) millise detection and defense (anti-missile missiles) systems. He speculates that this would create a very significant sharing of defense data which would essentially cover the entirety of Eurasia. This has been added to Sources.

Perhaps. What I see is Putin bestowing an honor upon the Chinese defense minister in which I see three messages. For the Chinese the message is one of respect and solidarity. For NATO it is, come on, try and drive a wedge here, you incompetant fools. For the Global South it is, see the realignment happening before you: China and Russia with their BRICS and SCO partners are strong, honorable and reliable. This deliberately contrasts with the next story.

The recent visits to China by French President Macron and European top bureaucrat von der Lugen, sorry, Leyen were astonishing. Macron was given all the welcome appropriate for a planned head of state visit. He brought with him 40 business leaders which the Chinese would have been happy with, for business is what they're about. Macron's lack of decorum on occassion could be ignored and the red carpet was laid out. Before departure a key economic agreement had been signed with China which is now providing production assistance to Airbus. Other economic agreements have remained hushed up, but one can reasonably assume that many were discussed and perhaps some agreed.

The first contrast is with von der Leyen, who had to pass through normal security and passport control on her way in and her way out. NATO seems to have attempted to send her along at the last minute to keep Macron in line. China was not interested in the uninvited guest and let her know in one of the most brutal of ways. On his return, Macron channeled a little of his inner de Gaulle and began declaring that Europe should not let that which has already happened happen, namely be vassals to Washington D.C.. Its a good idea, but a day late and a euro short.

The starkest contrast with all of the above came during Brazilian president Lula's current state visit to China. It was sadly a little delayed due to Lula have contracted pneumonia, but no matter. The reddest of red carpet was out, with very carefully chosen music and all of the attention to detail that such an important state visit demanded, displaying China's consumate hospitality and thoughtfulness.

Ignacio (Lula) spoke of a dream in which he wondered why it was that nations used the US dollar for trade rather than their own currencies. He even got to contemplating a new international trade currency, which echoed his mention of the Sur during his election campaign. These types of sentiments have resulted in the deaths of other heads of state from Sadam Hussein to Col. Ghaddafi.

We are sure not in Kansas anymore, Toto.

Sources

All Roads Lead to Beijing, Pepe Escobar, The Unz Review, 2023-04-15

Press TV, Iran’s ‘Spotlight’ on the visit to China of Brazil’s President Lula, Gilbert Doctorow, his website, 2023-04-16

When The Meeting Is "Upgraded"., Andrei Martyanov, Reminiscence of the Future... (his newsletter), 2023-04-16

Sudanese special forces say they seized Al Fashir airport, two military bases, TASS, 2023-04-15

Sudan Military Finishes Review of Russian Red Sea Base Deal, Samy Magdy (Associated Press), Military.com, 2023-02-11

Military chief says Sudan reviewing naval base deal with Russia, Al Jazeera, 2021-06-02

Dancin' in Djibouti and Aiden' the BRI, YesXorNo, 2021-06-19

China, Russia circle wagons in Asia-Pacific, M. K. Bhradakuma, Indian Punchline (his website), 2023-04-19

Sudan conflict. Neocons, Crimea = regime change. Bolton, global NATO. Germany RIP nuclear power. U/1, Alex Christoforou, his youtube channel, 2023-04-16

Massive Usage Of Guided Bombs. Wagner advances in Bakhmut. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.04.17, Dima, Military Summary Channel, 2023-04-17

Wagner's Report On The Situation Around Bakhmut. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.04.17, Dima, Military Summary Channel, 2023-04-17

Full Front Update. Easter Ceasefire. Situation in Bakhmut. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.04.16, Dima, Military Summary Channel, 2023-04-16

US Rushes to Provoke War w/Growing Chinese Army: Admits Taiwan will be Destroyed, Brian Berletic, The New Atlas, 2023-07-17

Is Biden being Misinformed on Ukraine & China? - Ray McGovern, Napolitiano interviews McGovern, Judging Freedom, 2023-04-17

Doc Leaker: More Red Flags - Larry Johnson, Napolitano interviews Johnson, Judging Freedom, 2023-04-17

Culture

Ry Cooder No Banker Left Behind, Ry Cooder (from the 2011 album “Pull Up Some Dust and Sit Down”), Nonesuch Records, uploaded by biamaku on 2011-06-07

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