Nuclear Armed Mafia Turf Wars
Events continue to conform to a thesis
[Image: A map of Asia with an inset of the SCO foreign ministers who just met in Goa, India.]
Published: 2023-05-09
Introduction
A summary of Mackinder's "Heartland" / "One World Island" theory of geopolitics and a coarse overview of the USA's behaviour during its period of hegemony is provided in an Annex below. This is a restatement of the core analysis which this newsletter has been examining for close on two years. If you're unfamiliar with this theory and analysis, start there, else skip it.
Recent events are noted and placed against this background analysis.
Syria Joins the Arab League
Let us begin with the re-invitation of Syria to the Arab League which this newsletter predicted last week. This flows on from Russia and lastly China's diplomatic achievement in establishing a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The USA has been diplomatically outplayed, largely because they wouldn't know diplomacy if it walked up to them and pulled their skirts and trousers down.
Sullivan Talks Railways
In a desperate attempt to re-establish some leverage over the Saudis, Jake Sullivan, not a diplomat but a 'national security adviser' is in Saudi Arabia talking about some railway project. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Iran and India are speaking about increased economic ties and the SCO's foreign ministers meeting is concluding in Goa, India. The meeting's purpose was to iron out any difficulties before the SCO Heads of State meeting which will occur in a couple of months in India, no doubt in the capital. Speaking of the SCO, the UAE and Kuwait have just been granted dialogue partner status. The USA's attempt to re-insert itself in the changing diplomatic structure of the Middle East appears a day late and a dollar short.
The USA is attempting a rather twisted strategy of saying "we've been with you all along" and still referring to the 2015 U.N. Security Council resolution 2254 (see Point 4., in particular), which calls for the U.N. to be involved in restructuring Syria's political system. Everyone knows what this means and will have none of it, for next they may suffer this political invasion themselves.
Turkey Says Sod Off
In more of the USA's "no can do" diplomacy it’s request for Turkey to send some of its S-400 (Russian built) air defense systems to Ukraine gives us two insights. Firstly, the sod off informs us once again that Turkey is its own agent and a thorn in the side of a NATO "unified front". Secondly, this confirms the now well known lack of air defense systems in Ukraine revealed in the “US Intelligence Leaks” which will seriously hamper the Nazi supported regime from achieving anything significant in its on-again off-again much vaunted "Spring" offensive.
Interestingly, Greece recently gave a similar sod off to Ukraine when one of its representatives came begging. Greece’s response was that it needed retain the munitions in case the Turks got uppity.
Russia Preps for Ukie Attacks
Russia has begun the evacuation of many towns in Zaporozhye, particularly those around the nuclear power plant (ZNPP). Thus, we learn that Russia believes the ZNPP will be a key target of any attack, which is hardly surprising, and that Russia believes the attack will occur in the near future, which again is unsurprising as the ground is hardening and Ukraine is under huge political pressure to commit this military suicide.
Ukraine's Mixed Signals
Ukraine's messaging is as mixed as the USA's diplomacy. On the one hand puppet actor Zelensky has just issued a highly produced "we are defending freedom" video (see Napolitano interviewing McGovern in Sources) while their Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, has issued statements to lower expectations for the all important upcoming military meander. This expectation reduction would seem to be another forced response to the lack of air defense.
Assassinating Journalists
On the actually active front of aggression, following the dual drone attack on the Kremlin, Ukraine is continuing its spree of murdering Russian journalists. Following the assassination bombings of Darya Dugina in a car and Vladlen Tatarsky in a cafe in St. Petersburg, Ukraine's covert services (SBU or whoever) paid an idiot to plant a couple of tank mines under the road to Russian journalist Zakhar Prelepin’s dwelling which lead to an explosion under the vehicle. This killed Prilepin's body guard who was in the front passenger seat, broke both of Zakhar's legs and flipped the car. (See iEarlGrey in Sources for the full wrap on the attack.)
In response to being asked about Dugina, rather than the recent attack on Prilepin, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence, Maj. Gen. Kyrlo Budanov, said:
Don’t continue with that topic. All I will comment on is that we’ve been killing Russians and we will keep killing Russians anywhere on the face of this world until the complete victory of Ukraine. [emphasis mine]
which makes extremely clear Ukraine's understanding of the rules of war, namely none.
A Never Ending War
George Szamuely on the most recent CrossTalk (see Sources) made a keen observation while they were discussing Ukrainian objectives. Victoria Nuland has been waxing lyrical about Ukraine re-taking Crimea, and a bill is currently working is way through the US Congress, George informs us, which “demands that the US support Ukraine in everything it can do in order to restore Ukraine to its 1991 borders”.
As Dimitri Lascaris (the Canadian Lawyer/Activist/Journalist) noted on his recent trip to Crimea, there are two land approaches from the Kherson oblast and both are very narrow isthimuses which are easily defended, across both of which Russia has built heavy fortifications. Dimitri confirmed that which is already known, that the vast majority of the population of Crimea are very happy to have rejoined Russia and want nothing to do with the crazy Ukrainians. Crimea contains Russia’s only warm water port at Sevastopol and from it, Russia controls the Black Sea, which is a critical trade transport route. There is no way in hell Russia is ever going to reliquish Crimea.
Thus, as Szamuely observes the Ukrainian objective and US congressional bill create a theoretically unending war. Of course, the USA Congress critters will backflip whenever the political winds shift, and if Ukraine keeps fighting this conflict with the tactics it has used to date it will have no chance whatsoever to achieve this result, so the point is moot.
However, the strategic gargage gushing out of Washington D.C. is laid bare.
A Few more Bombs to Quiet the Masses
The Ukrainian operation of attacking the Kremlin had the desired effect of angering the Russian people, but not the desired effect of making the Russian leadership start behaving irrationally or emotionally. To assuage the public sentiment and some political grandstanding by quite a few Russian politicians, the Russian military added a few, actually quite a few, bombs to the their latest attacks on Ukraine's military and infrastructure. The "largest attack on Kiev" may look like a form of revenge. It was not. Nobody was killed, but the positions of Ukrainian air defense units were confirmed. The other attacks were against troop concentrations, supply depots, transport infrastructure and particularly the airfield in Odessa which has been used to launch the recent flurry of drone attacks against Sevastopol.
Another effect of attacking the Kremlin was to elevate the sensitivity of Russia's armed forces. If one reads between the lines of the Antiwar report on a mishap between a Russian and a NATO (Polish) aircraft over the Black Sea off the coast of Romania, one could conclude that having these forces on alert and being a little edgy is not a good thing. The article states that the Russia pilot fired a missile at the Polish plane, which is a bit scary. It also stated that the missile was fired because of a misunderstood instruction. The article then states that the missile malfunctioned. I don't buy that. More likely is that it was disabled after an erroneous firing.
All the same, this is not good and is merely the latest in a whole sequence of air encounters between the Russia Airforce and manned or unmanned foreign aircraft over the Black Sea and particularly near the exclusion zone around Sevastopol.
Poking the Dragon
Moving from the war that the USA has successfully created in Europe to the one it is trying to gin up with China, two recent events highlight the USA's continued efforts. The first event is an ongoing discussion between Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng and the Pentagon for half a billion USD worth of Taiwan's weaponry wishlist being taken from existing Pentagon stocks and being provided at zero cost. Dave DeCamp rightly puts 'Free' in quotes, for the US stockpiles are dwindling due to Ukraine leeching them, and of course, the US will need to restock. So, this could be a gift from US tax payers to Taiwan, and back to US weapons manufacturers to help create a very dangerous war.
The second event is a Republican bill introduced into the USA Congress to slap European NATO “partners” back into line after Macron's recent comments stating that Europe needed to establish some strategic autonomy and not be US vassals in the provocation over Taiwan.
Where did Ukraine go Wrong?
Returning to Ukraine, for a very interesting examination of where Ukraine could have gone as opposed to where it is now, Natylie Baldwin interviewed a left wing journalist on Ukraine's path since its independence. Baldwin's site is occasionally cited in this newsletter for on it Baldwin often republishes interesting articles on recent events with a nuanced perspective including both western and eastern considerations. This article on Ukraine's trajectory over the last three decades is thought provoking.
Conclusions
The USA's hegemony is gone. It, with its European vassals, is one of two blocks of equivalent power, with the other being China and Russia with their "partners". In those partners I include the key military ones like Belarus and Kazakhstan, or the core members of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation). The USA has lost key elements of its "full spectrum dominance". Its is being challenged financially by China, diplomatically by both China and Russia and Militarily by Russia, the CSTO and China. The USA's soft power is being undermined by western independent media voices pointing out its abuse and hypocrisy.
In the last days and weeks we've seen the diplomatic successes of Russia/China, particularly in the Middle East (or West Asia). The continued economic successes of the Russia/China alliance as displayed in increased direct economic relationships between members of the SCO, with much of that involving trade in national currencies, i.e de-dollarization. The hypocrisy of the USA and European NATO partners is exposed by their support of the Nazi infested Ukrainian regime which is murdering journalists and attacking civilian targets, particularly in Donetsk (schools, hospitals, orphanages, water works etc.).
There is no "freedom and democracy" in Ukraine. Its a kleptocracy supported by Nazi thugs which have outlawed the Russian language, closed down political opposition, centralized control of the media and been murdering Russian ethnic Ukrainians ("orcs") for almost a decade now. The recent arrest of Gonzalo Lira is just another case which demonstrates the continuation of these policies
Lira was detained some months ago and released after a week or so having handed over the passwords to his social media accounts. For his recent arrest and detainment Ukraine released a highly produced video showing them being soft handed and also filming the inside of his apartment and publishing that. Alex Christoforou noted the three books on Putin sitting on a coffee table in the video and declared that they must have been placed there by the Ukrainians. Similarly, shots of Lira's bathroom were meant to imply that he is living in squalor.
On what charge has Lira been arrested? Saying stuff Ukraine doesn't like and publishing it on a platform it doesn't control. Brian Berletic goes over the “evidence” provided by the Kharkov’s Prosecutors Office and demonstrates that the comments made by Lira are accepted fact in western outlets including the BBC, Reuters, The Hill, USA congress persons and even “Human Rights” NGO’s like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International (see Sources). For speaking of known facts Lira may get 4 to 8 years in a Ukrainian prison. Freedom and Democracy my ass.
Now, I think that Lira was an idiot to stay in Ukraine, but that doesn't matter. This government is being supported by the USA and its European NATO allies and it is murdering and arresting journalists and anyone else who says things it doesn't like.
[Image: a minor crop of an image by Caitlin Johnstone of her entry for the Australian Archibald portrait prize (Assange's Dad Oil on canvas (60 x 48")).]
We learned of Lira’s arrest just days following the USA being asked about their treatment of Julian Assange during "World Press Freedom Day". The USA's policy is consistent. Journalists who spout the accepted narrative are supported with cries of Press Freedom, and perhaps even with funds from the newly established "Insurance Fund" for journalists crowed by empire loyalist and former US representative to the U.N., Samantha Powers (See Sources, "WTF!"). Those that don’t echo the narrative can just rot in jail or be murdered.
The western media spin is failing. Anyone who is inquisitive has stopped listening to the crap being transmitted on CNN and the rest of the narrative spewing media. Far more reasonable and actually educated analysis is available. This is supported by reports from which one can extract the names, dates and places to confirm events, whether from independent media or wire services. The facts can then be tied to decent analysis and people can become informed.
As Macgregor says (see Sources) running an empire of lies arms truth bombs.
Annex
Heartland: Mackinder
Harold Mackinder is oft credited as the being the father of geopolitics as a study. His theory is based on geography and the technology of his time, the railway. It goes like this:
Eurasia and Africa form the largest single habitable landmass, followed by north and south America, followed by Australia. The numbers, respectively, in millions of square kilometres, are (Asia: 44.579, Africa: 30.370 and Europe: 10.180) 82.129, (North America: 24.709 and South America: 17.840) 42.549 and (Australia: 8.526) 8.526 or 82, 42, 8.
Mackinder then proposes that if one control this "one world island", the combination of Eurasia and Africa, one controls the world. To control the island one needs to control its center.
Thus, control of the center of Eurasia leads to control of the one world island which leads to control of the world.
Extending and Implementing Mackinder
During the last 120 years since this thesis was proposed technology has advanced wildly. However, the core bulk transport technologies remain shipping and rail, and in these technologies there is little difference between "the west" and "the east". Indeed, China has built tens of thousands of kilometres of high speed rail while Europe has built some and the USA none.
Mackinder's proposal remains valid.
China's multi-trillion dollar BRI strategy is an attempt at realizing the trade component of Mackinder's vision, or re-establishing the old Silk Roads depending on how one wishes to look at it. This is the fundamental component of Mackinder's analysis. It is complimented by a whole plethora of organisations about which this newsletter has commented repeatedly: the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the collective of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and the Asian Infrastructure Bank and the New Development Bank (which are eastern counterparts to the IMF and World Bank).
USA Behaviour Since 1990
It is important to consider the framing which one chooses when looking at the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a process which took four years and ended on the 26th of December 1991. The USA verb is collapse, in which there is some validity. The European term is dissolution which this author believes more apt. This perspective then informs how one looks and the end of the Cold War. The USA "collapse" perspective leads to "the USA won" the Cold War. The European "dissolution" perspective leads to "the Soviet Union withdrew". Again, there is some truth in both.
Whatever one's perspective, the end result is a world dominated by the last remaining "super-power", the USA, with its various satrapies littered from Europe to South America to East Asia.
The sequence of military engagements by the USA during its period of hegemony inform us as to approach of the USA's ruling class. The 1991 war, first on the territory of Kuwait and later into Iraq produced two key outcomes. The first was the USA shedding its "Vietnam Complex". The second was a collection of USA air bases in Saudi Arabia, which an irate Osama bin Laden had warned the Saudi Monarchy against for it would allow the "infidels" in and 'they'll never leave'.
Thereafter, we seen NATO get involved in the war in the Balkans and dismembering Yugoslavia, the all important 9/11 crimes and then a series of adventurous expeditionary wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Libya and proxy wars in Georgia, Syria and Ukraine (to name a few), with colour revolutions all over the place from Hong Kong to Belarus. This is the hegemon showing how it is going to play its hegemony.
The USA uses all available levers of power to destabilize regions or governments which are not complying with its diktats. It increased its use of financial manipulation or warfare better known as illegal unilateral sanctions. It used soft power to create and fund local opposition movements, and the operations wing of the CIA to foment colour revolutions. It would then use military power to invade if the "softer" version failed. The approach is openly declared in the USA "defense" policies. It is labeled "full spectrum dominance". It is akin to a Mafia protection racket by a nuclear armed power.
Sources
Arab League Votes to Readmit Syria, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-07
The United States Gets A Major Black Eye in the Middle East Courtesy of the Arab League, Larry Johnson, his website, 2023-05-07
Report: Jake Sullivan in Saudi Arabia Discussing Rail Project, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-07
US needs a junior partner in the Gulf, M. K. Bhadrakumar, Indianpunchline, 2023-05-06
In boost to China, UAE and Kuwait become 'dialogue partners' in Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Salim A. Essaid, Al-Monitor, 2023-05-08
Eurasian foreign ministers gather in India on regional security, Krishn Kaushik, Reuters, 2023-05-04
Resolution 2254 (2015) / adopted by the Security Council at its 7588th meeting, on 18 December 2015, U.N. Digital Library, UN
Download the language you want and see point 4 which calls for the U.N. to both oversee the drafting of a new consitution and national elections.
US Shifts Rhetoric on Regional Engagement With Syria, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-04
Turkey Rejects US Request to Send S-400 Air Defense System to Ukraine, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-07
Russia Evacuates People Near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-07
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Says Lower Expectations of Counteroffensive, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-08
Bomb kills Russian war blogger in St Petersburg cafe, Mark Trevelyan and Felix Light, Reuters, 2023-04-03
Russia Names Second Suspect in Killing of Darya Dugina—'Prepared in Moscow', Isabel van Brugen, Newsweek, 2022-08-29
Russia blames Ukraine, U.S. for car bomb that wounded writer, Mark Trevelyan, Reuters, 2023-05-06
Prominent Russian Novelist Injured in Deadly Car Bombing, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-07
Ukraine Military Intel Chief: ‘We Will Keep Killing Russians’ Anywhere in the World, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-08
NATO Air Units on High Alert After Near Miss Between Russian and Polish Aircraft, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-08
US, Taiwan in Talks on US Providing $500 Million in ‘Free’ Weapons, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-08
House Republicans Demand Europe Falls in Line on Taiwan, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-05-08
Ukraine’s Big Mistake, Natylie Baldwin interviews Renfrey Clarke, Consortium News (reprinted from CovertAction Magazine), 2023-05-08
Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Wikipedia
The US Government Lied About The Ukraine War - Colonel Douglas Macgregor Reveals All, Brian Rose interviews Col. Macgregor, London Real, 2023-05-07
U.S. To Give Money Directly To Imprisoned Journalists – But NOT Assange!, Aaron Mate, The Jimmy Dore Show, 2023-05-05
Russia Responds With "STRONGEST ATTACK" Against Ukraine. FAB Glide Bombs "THWART KIEV'S PLANS", Mike Jones, iEarlGrey, 2023-05-08
Syria in Arab League. Surovikin's Bakhmut trap. Odessa bridge strike. Putin makes it rain. U/1, Alex Christoforou, his channel, 2023-05-08
Zelenskyy vows to defeat Putin/ JFK assassination update - Ray McGovern, Napolitano interviews McGovern, Judging Freedom, 2023-05-08
Ukraine Jails US Commentator Gonzalo Lira for Speaking Uncomfortable Facts, Brian Berletic, The New Atlas, 2023-05-06
Economic Hitman John Perkins: How the USA Used Debt and Economic Sabotage to Control the World, Rattansi interview Perkins on the third edition of his book, Going Underground (TV), 2023-04-30
CrossTalk | Home Edition | Kiev's new strategy?, Lavelle interviews Szamuely and Babich on the drone attack, CrossTalk (RT), 2023-05-08
Culture
Kazakh Folk Song 4, Айнұр Қалайқызы, Kaysar777, uploaded 2012-03-20
The recording is a bit loud. I recommend turning the volume down and putting it on loop to listen a few times. Melodically I hear hope, yearning and sorrow. See what you think. I like it. I believe I’m hearing a merger of Chinese, Tartar (Mongol) and Russian influences. Айнұр has a beautiful voice.
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Comments: on topic, no abuse.
An incredible summary, thankyou.